All Shogun and OSP numbers for LHW Current Ranking

[scm1]

In another thread I started discussion with @sparkuri about Shogun and OSP current ranking.
I would like to continue that conversation here and everybody else can give their opinion.

In the rankings that I presented I have Shogun ranked higher than OSP. Sparkuri argued that doesn’t look right.
I will first present some data and give some of our numbers.
Then we can go through our calculations and see if something is questionable.
It takes a lot of time to prepare this material, so be patient with me and let’s have a meaningful discussion.

 

[scm1]

This is ScoreCardMMA UFC LHW Current top 15:

Next graph includes all LHW fighters (including suspended and fighters in other organizations).
You can also see the difference in Current Score points.

 

[Wild]

You are the man @scm1 and your content is greatly appreciated. I will sit on the sidelines and watch you & @sparkuri debate this out

 

[scm1]

Some of the numbers that we are calculating and using in other calculations, are the following:

• Current Score (CS) – number from 1 to 1000. It is used to create Current Rankings.
• Category Ranking (RkC) – fighters Ranking in the Weight Category
• Rating (Rtg) – number from 1 to 35 that represents strength of fighter. We have All Time Rating (atRtg) and Current Rating (cRtg).

Top fighter in category will have #1 Ranking, Current Rating will be 33 - 35, and Current Score will be around 880 points.
Fighter ranked #5 will typically have CurRtg around 31 and CurScore around 700 points.

CurRnk , CurRtg and CurScore values can be:
1. Present – as of today (or latest published)
2. At the time of the fight – we take values before and after fight and calculate average.

All Time Rating depends on overall achievements of the fighter.

 

[scm1]

We are talking about Mauricio Rua and Ovince St. Preux .

I pulled from database their fights in the last 1096 days (3 years) and some of the attributes for those fights and opponents:

• atFght OppCS – Opponent CurrentScore at the time of fight. This is average of CS before and after fight.
• curOpRkC – current (right now) Opponent Rank in Category
• oppRkCtgBA – Opponent Category Ranking at the time of fight (average of Before and After fight)
• Fight Bonus – fight bonus given by organization (UFC , Invicta, …). Not used in calculations.
• Fight 4Chmp – Points for Championship fight
• Close – Close Fight Level (+/-)
• Exciting – Exciting Fight Level (exciting fight finish or both fighters show skills in an exciting fight)

 

[scm1]

This is the historical monthly view of all fights in the last few years.
Most recent fight is on the left.
Number under result (W/L) is Current Rating of the opponent.

 

[scm1]

Following table shows who were opponents for LHW fighters from #8 to # 11.

Date in green color is more recent, and dark represents old fight.

 

[scm1]

I presented some data that can be sliced and diced in different way.
If you don’t understand something in any of those graphs, please ask.
I was busy at work whole day and midnight is the only time I had to post this.
This morning I have a few meetings so don’t expect my answers before noon.
But you guys can start discussion.

Later I will give you our formula and how those Current Score was exactly calculated.

I was also expecting that some people would complain about Alexander Gustafsson being ranked too low and Nikita Krylov too high.
You can include them in your evaluation.
Let us know how would you rank them and then give us your detailed reasoning.

 

[scm1]

You are the man @scm1 and your content is greatly appreciated. I will sit on the sidelines and watch you & @sparkuri debate this out

As I said before, my intention is to have a discussion with all people here, not an argument with one person.
Yes @sparkuri initiated this, but it is not just for him.
I'm expecting you @Wild to give us your 2 cents

 

[sparkuri]

As I said before, my intention is to have a discussion with all people here, not an argument with one person.
Yes @sparkuri initiated this, but it is not just for him.
I'm expecting you @Wild to give us your 2 cents

LISTEN MOTHERFUCKER!!!!

J/K



I Got nothin, I'm drunk

 

[scm1]

As I can see there is overwhelming interest in looking at the numbers.

Anybody in the mood to join the conversation?
Questions? Comments? Profanities?

 

[maurice]

We are talking about Mauricio Rua and Ovince St. Preux .

I pulled from database their fights in the last 1096 days (3 years) and some of the attributes for those fights and opponents:

This one pretty well illustrates why it doesn't look right, based on something I mentioned in the other thread. OSP is downgraded because he took fights against 3 top-5 guys and lost, while Shogun is being rewarded for facing lesser competition. Those 3 losses (2 by decision) should hurt OSP less than Shogun getting (T)KOed by 2 non-top-5 guys (including OSP himself in only 34 seconds). Hell, Hendo KOed Shogun in the midst of what otherwise would've been a 5-fight losing streak.

 

[scm1]

This one pretty well illustrates why it doesn't look right, based on something I mentioned in the other thread. OSP is downgraded because he took fights against 3 top-5 guys and lost, while Shogun is being rewarded for facing lesser competition. Those 3 losses (2 by decision) should hurt OSP less than Shogun getting (T)KOed by 2 non-top-5 guys (including OSP himself in only 34 seconds). Hell, Hendo KOed Shogun in the midst of what otherwise would've been a 5-fight losing streak.

That is a good comment.
So, you are saying that loss can be worth more than a win. Do you have in mind some rules for that?
For example do you think Loss with #1 Ranked Opponent worth more than Win over #6 ranked?
Loss (OppRnkCtg=1) > Win(OppRnkCtg=6)
Or you would go lower Loss (OppRnkCtg=1) > Win(OppRnkCtg=10)?

Is that a case even when that fighter didn’t earn to fight #1?
There are number of cases where #1 fights somebody that is ranked lower than #6.
For Example T.J. Dillashaw fough Joe Soto. Is that Loss more worth than Caraway win over Aljamain Sterling?
Or would Dan Henderson (#10) Loss with Bisping be more worth than Gegard Mousasi Win over #9 Vitor Belfort?

 

[scm1]

This one pretty well illustrates why it doesn't look right, based on something I mentioned in the other thread. OSP is downgraded because he took fights against 3 top-5 guys and lost, while Shogun is being rewarded for facing lesser competition. Those 3 losses (2 by decision) should hurt OSP less than Shogun getting (T)KOed by 2 non-top-5 guys (including OSP himself in only 34 seconds). Hell, Hendo KOed Shogun in the midst of what otherwise would've been a 5-fight losing streak.

One more comment on your comment.
OSP lost points because he lost 2 recent fights. He didn’t lose much because those two were high level opponents.
But OSP didn’t take stronger opponents because he has more courage than Shogun, but because he had a chance to fight for the title. And for Jones fight he was offered some extra money.
Every fight is a gamble. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

You mentioned Hendo’s losing streak. In that losing streak he was fighting only top 5 fighters (Vitor Belfort,Rashad Evans,Lyoto Machida, Daniel Cormier).
So, by the same token, all those Losses over top opponents should give Hendo very high ranking!?

 

[maurice]

With 2 wins over Rua, you certainly could argue that Hendo should be ranked higher than Rua at LHW (which is a thin division). That didn't come up earlier because everybody recognizes that Hendo is a natural MW (yet another strike against Rua), has been fighting MWs, and will be fighting at MW again soon.

I'm not saying that a loss should help a ranking. I'm saying that it shouldn't necessarily hurt. If the #10 guy loses a decision to the #1 guy, that doesn't mean his rating should drop because, if rated correctly, he was supposed to lose, and the fact that he went to decision indicates that he's probably a legit top 10 guy.

Returning to the instant example, crushing Rua should've put OSP ahead in the rankings, and (arguably) what's happened since then shouldn't move Rua ahead of OSP. Another interesting case is Hall and Mousasi, but I think most people feel that was a freak KO and Hall loses a rematch.

 

[maurice]

I guess the mathematical rules would be:
- A KO loss to a lower ranked guy should hurt a heckuva lot more than a loss to a much higher ranked guy.
- A decision loss to a much higher ranked guy probably shouldn't hurt at all.
- A decision win over a much lower ranked guy shouldn't help much.

 

[scm1]

With 2 wins over Rua, you certainly could argue that Hendo should be ranked higher than Rua at LHW (which is a thin division). That didn't come up earlier because everybody recognizes that Hendo is a natural MW (yet another strike against Rua), has been fighting MWs, and will be fighting at MW again soon.

I'm not saying that a loss should help a ranking. I'm saying that it shouldn't necessarily hurt. If the #10 guy loses a decision to the #1 guy, that doesn't mean his rating should drop because, if rated correctly, he was supposed to lose, and the fact that he went to decision indicates that he's probably a legit top 10 guy.

Returning to the instant example, crushing Rua should've put OSP ahead in the rankings, and (arguably) what's happened since then shouldn't move Rua ahead of OSP. Another interesting case is Hall and Mousasi, but I think most people feel that was a freak KO and Hall loses a rematch.

Thanks for your answer. Again you have some legitimate assertions.
But they are sometimes based on individual feelings and your rules are too flexible.
My quick comments on some of your statements:
1. everybody recognizes that Hendo is a natural MW – should we now go back and deduct points for all LHW and HW (including Fedor) that were fighting Hendo?
2. and the fact that he went to decision indicates that he's probably a legit top 10 guy – that also might means something else. Maybe JBJ didn’t look like old JBJ? Or OSP implemented very cautious tactics and avoided any risky moves?
3. most people feel that was a freak KO – most of the KO you can classified as freak or incidental. If somebody moved his head or wasn’t too aggressive or was clinching, that guy wouldn’t be KO’d. If we go into “I feel like” realm, then many different theories and conclusions can be made.

 

[scm1]

I guess the mathematical rules would be:
- A KO loss to a lower ranked guy should hurt a heckuva lot more than a loss to a much higher ranked guy. – I agree
- A decision loss to a much higher ranked guy probably shouldn't hurt at all. - I agree. But it also shouldn’t improve somebody’s ranking. And what if you have multiple losses to a much higher ranked guy?
- A decision win over a much lower ranked guy shouldn't help much. – I agree

 

[scm1]

Here is my quick explanation (without going into formulas and detailed numbers) for the ranking that we have.
I don’t favor any fighter. Just looking at the numbers.

OSP doesn’t have any win over anybody ranked in top 15 (ranking at the time of the fight).
He has 2 Losses with #7 and 1 Loss with #1

Win - T.J. Cook (ranked #171),
Win - Gian Villante (at time of the fight ranked #39)
Win - Cody Donovan (#60)
Win - Nikita Krylov (#76)
Win - Ryan Jimmo (#25)
Loss - Ryan Bader (#7)
Win - Mauricio Rua (#20)
Win - Patrick Cummins (#22)
Loss - Glover Teixeira (#7)
Win - Rafael Cavalcante (#52)
Loss - Jon Jones (#1)

What works in his favor is that he has a win over fighters that are currently ranked in front of him, but that was when they had lower ranking: Nikita Krylov (#76) and Mauricio Rua (#20).
What works against him is that the most recent results are not the best. In the last 12 months he has 1 Win (over #52) and 2 Losses (with #7 and #1).
Unless we put a huge value on a losing effort with Jon Jones, those recent results are not beneficial for Current Ranking.

Now let’s review Rua’s opponents since 2012 (and their ranking at the time of the fight):

Win - Brandon Vera (#32)
Loss - Alexander Gustafsson (#4)
Loss - Chael Sonnen (#9)
Win - James Te Huna (#17)
Loss - Dan Henderson (#10)
Loss - Ovince St. Preux (#12)
Win - Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (#18)
Win - Corey Anderson (#12)

Half of those are Losses. Record 4-4 definitely doesn’t look better than 8-3.
But on average, Rua had much stronger opponents than OSP. Almost all of them where from top 20.
All Losses (except OSP) are from opponent ranked in top 10.

What also works for Rua (in terms of Current Ranking) is that he Won his 2 most recent fights. And the latest Win was over solid #12 opponent .


If we look at last 2 fights, Rua has advantage.
If we look at last 4 fights, they are close.
If we look at last 6 fights, OSP has advantage.
If we look at last 8 fights, OSP has advantage.
If we look at fights further in the past, then Rua has a huge advantage.

When you combine all of that, Rua has some minimal lead.

 

[sparkuri]

That's a lot to consider, but certainly OSP losing a short-notice 5-round decision to Jon Jones should be ranked higher imo, than say "winning" a debateable fight on home-turf against Corey Anderson.

OSP is basically coming off a title fight on short notice, whereas that guy destroyed Shogun who's FAR removed from title contention.

 

[scm1]

That's a lot to consider, but certainly OSP losing a short-notice 5-round decision to Jon Jones should be ranked higher imo, than say "winning" a debateable fight on home-turf against Corey Anderson.

OSP is basically coming off a title fight on short notice, whereas that guy destroyed Shogun who's FAR removed from title contention.

Roger that.
Now question is, should we give some extra bonus for having short-notice fights? Should the other guy (Jones) get some demerit points in that case?
We have so many cases where short-notice guy wins.
Wasn’t Michael Bisping a last-minute opponent for Luke Rockhold? And he won the belt. Even Jon Jones won his belt as late replacement (for Rashad) against Rua.
What does that mean? What kind of rule we can set for late replacements?

Does home-turf compels some deduction in points home fighters get for a win?
Some times that creates more pressure. Is every American fighting in America also subject to that rule?

We flagged Rua – Corey Anderson fight as a close fight (you can see -2 in the fight list). That removed few points from Rua’s win. Should we remove even more? Was that very close fight (Close=-3)?

Also you can see that OSP did receive some points for being in the title fight. Although he definitely didn’t earn right for that title fight. Should we award him some extra points for anything else (late replacement, not being finished, extra bravery)?

 

[sparkuri]

Although I'm happy that Shogun got the W, that round 2 Cory was winning until the late knockdown gave the judges at home enough ammo to call it for Rua.
Had this been totally impartial, that W might go to Corey, thus turning rank upside down.
I actually think the effort to finish and drive should have much higher value than the decision W or L.
In my world it's a draw.
There should be some kind of algorithm for fights that end by decision.
Short-notice/camp is definitely a point increase, but in the case of Jones/OSP, it was short for both, shorter for OSP.
Another consideration is acclimation to environment.
This is so interesting a topic @scm1 , that I could geek out for days calculating variables, I wish I had the time!
There are some more intangeables to set in stone.
I'll give this attention when I have time.

 

[scm1]

Although I'm happy that Shogun got the W, that round 2 Cory was winning until the late knockdown gave the judges at home enough ammo to call it for Rua.
Had this been totally impartial, that W might go to Corey, thus turning rank upside down.
I actually think the effort to finish and drive should have much higher value than the decision W or L.
In my world it's a draw.
There should be some kind of algorithm for fights that end by decision.
Short-notice/camp is definitely a point increase, but in the case of Jones/OSP, it was short for both, shorter for OSP.
Another consideration is acclimation to environment.
This is so interesting a topic @scm1 , that I could geek out for days calculating variables, I wish I had the time!
There are some more intangeables to set in stone.
I'll give this attention when I have time.

Thank you for your time @sparkuri . You already contributed more than most of the people on this site.
@regular john is always very helpful. Also thanks to @maurice , @Alienator , Q @Qat , @Kneeblock

I am trying to get a feedback from many different sides, because that is the only way to improve system.
As for any automated system we need to have strict, universal rules.
People have different opinions and can say thinks like “I am sure that he can beat …” or “I file like …” or “most people feel that was a freak KO”.
But computer works with exact values (numbers) and predefined formulas.

Of course, people’s opinion should be taken into account.
Even judges decision is just an opinion. Promotion decision on who should be next title challenger is a human opinion.
Most important thing is to find what opinions should be taken into consideration for rankings and then how to use them in formulas.
And we have to be very careful with those opinions. Opinions are like assholes. Everybody's got one and everyone thinks everyone else's stinks.

 

[Punch]

Thank you for your time @sparkuri . You already contributed more than most of the people on this site.
@regular john is always very helpful. Also thanks to @maurice , @Alienator , Q @Qat , @Kneeblock

I am trying to get a feedback from many different sides, because that is the only way to improve system.
As for any automated system we need to have strict, universal rules.
People have different opinions and can say thinks like “I am sure that he can beat …” or “I file like …” or “most people feel that was a freak KO”.
But computer works with exact values (numbers) and predefined formulas.

Of course, people’s opinion should be taken into account.
Even judges decision is just an opinion. Promotion decision on who should be next title challenger is a human opinion.
Most important thing is to find what opinions should be taken into consideration for rankings and then how to use them in formulas.
And we have to be very careful with those opinions. Opinions are like assholes. Everybody's got one and everyone thinks everyone else's stinks.

This is an interesting thread. With no numbers, instinct would tell me that osp would be placed higher up the rankings than shogun at this point in their careers, but only slightly.

I would agree that a loss to the highest level competitor, could count for more than a win against a lesser opponent depending on the circumstances. Example: DC's loss to Jones, versus the squash match against Cummings.

 

[maurice]

Hendo is a natural MW – should we now go back and deduct points for all LHW and HW (including Fedor) that were fighting Hendo?

Yes. As I mentioned in the other thread, McGregor rightfully retained his #1 ranking at FW after getting stopped by Diaz, because he was moving up in weight. Similarly, when Sonnen and Belfort moved up to fight Jones, their losses shouldn't have impacted their rankings at MW. Like a loss to a much higher ranked guy, a loss to a highly ranked, heavier guy shouldn't hurt much or at all.

But if that's true, then a loss to a lighter guy moving up out of his natural weight class should hurt more. I expect that Arlovski dropped quite a bit after getting KOed by AJ, for example.