Bellator is closing the gap and more than I realized.

[BJJMMA]

This may not be a popular opinion. However, it is happening. First, lets take into fact that Bellator 192 was a success in terms of ratings for Bellator and was going H2H with a UFC PPV. Bellator 192 Ratings Top 1.3 Million

But lets look a little deeper. I am using scorecardmma.com to support this post because it has easily accessible rankings for both leagues.

First up HW:
UFC

1 Stipe Miocic
2 Francis Ngannou
3 Alistair Overeem
4 Fabricio Werdum
5 Alexander Volkov
6 Junior dos Santos
7 Josh Barnett
8 Mark Hunt
9 Cain Velasquez
10 Derrick Lewis

Bellator
1 Matt Mitrione
2 Chael Sonnen
3 Roy Nelson
4 Cheick Kongo
5 Fedor Emelianenko
6 Quinton Jackson
7 Bobby Lashley
8 Javy Ayala
9 Valentin Moldavsky
10 Frank Mir

Ok, this one is easily in the UFC's favor. We knock this division all the time but the fact is that there aren't many elite HWs out there and for the most part the UFC has found them and signed them all. Vitaly Minokov would be a huge acquisition for either company.

Light Heavyweight
UFC
1 Daniel Cormier
2 Alexander Gustafsson
3 Volkan Oezdemir
4 Glover Teixeira
5 Mauricio Rua
6 Ovince St. Preux
7 Jimi Manuwa
8 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
9 Patrick Cummins
10 Gadzhimurad Antigulov

Bellator
1 Ryan Bader
2 Phil Davis
3 Muhammed Lawal
4 Linton Vassell
5 Liam McGeary
6 Vadim Nemkov
7 Leo Leite
8 Wanderlei Silva
9 Francis Carmont
10 Philipe Lins
The UFC has a slight edge here but not much. Especially if Jon Jones stays out and DC retires next year. But really the top 5 of Bader, Davis, Lawal, Vassell, and McGreary is just as solid as DC, Gus, Oezdemir, Texeira, and Rua. Competitively Bellator is much more competitive but that has more to do with the separation of DC and Gus over the rest in UFC. Jon Jones shakes this up big time but right now these two divisions look remarkably similar. Strong top and fades fast after about 3 spots. If you combined these two divisions it would be fun to watch.

Middlewieght
UFC
1 Robert Whittaker
2 Georges St. Pierre
3 Ronaldo Souza
4 Luke Rockhold
5 Yoel Romero
6 Kelvin Gastelum
7 Michael Bisping
8 Chris Weidman
9 Derek Brunson

Bellator
1 Gegard Mousasi
2 Alexander Shlemenko
3 Rafael Carvalho
4 John Salter
5 Anatoly Tokov
6 Chidi Njokuani
7 Rafael Lovato Jr.
8 Jordan Young
9 Gregory Babene
10 Melvin Manhoef

This one the gap is still widely in the UFC's favor. Bellator just needs to be very thankful for Mousasi.

Welterweight
UFC
1 Tyron Woodley
2 Stephen Thompson
3 Rafael dos Anjos
4 Colby Covington
5 Robbie Lawler
6 Demian Maia
7 Santiago Ponzinibbio
8 Darren Till
9 Kamaru Usman
10 Jorge Masvidal

BELLATOR
1 Rory MacDonald
2 Douglas Lima
3 Andrey Koreshkov
4 Paul Daley
5 Lorenz Larkin
6 Michael Page
7 Neiman Gracie
8 Fernando Gonzalez
9 Ricky Rainey
10 E.J. Brooks

The depth across the top 10 belongs to the UFC. The top 5 might be in Bellator's favor. Rory is arguably the best WW on the planet. Lima is fantastic. MVP might be the most interesting WW, or Covington. The UFC really needs GSP here. This one I would give the slight edge to Bellator or call it a push. Regardless this is another division where Bellator closed the gap tremendously.

The rest of the divisions are heavily in the UFC's favor. My point is that not so long ago Bellator needed a Kimbo fight to move the needle. Now they have closed the gap in several divisions big time. Add in the expiring contracts of some big name fighters and current free agent market and we could see a shift to more parody across leagues.

 

[regular john]

not sure if I agree but it's a good discussion.

Bellator's divisions are still remarkably thin but overall fighters certainly are more spread out than a few years ago. What strikes me the most is the complete lack of quality upwards of 185 pounds everywhere and even at MW almost all of the big names are well into their 30's.

 

[member 603]

Bellator has proven to be a legitimate contender against the UFC, I can easily see in the next 2/3 years when the UFC contracts start expiring, fighters (who have ALL complained about WME's running of the company) will start jumping ship to the Bellator. Another benefit in Bellator's favor, is that they take the time to promote up and coming youngsters like Aaron Pico and MVP.... The UFC still puts ALL their eggs into one or two fighters. For younger talent, the opportunity to actually get a shot at being promoted and slowly developed, rather than sitting in the undercard of a Fight Pass event, getting ONE HIGHLIGHT REEL KO against another unknown, then thrown into a title shot because the UFC is trying to capitalize on that popularity, may seem like a better option.

 

[Mix6APlix]

War Bellator. WME are bigger clowns the Dana.

 

[Haulport]

Bellator is pretty far off from where Strikeforce was before it's demise. Strikeforce was significantly BETTER at HW and 155 and right there with a few other divisions and, unfortunately (imo), had Ronda Rousey poised to make WMMA a big thing in MMA.

 

[BJJMMA]

Bellator has proven to be a legitimate contender against the UFC, I can easily see in the next 2/3 years when the UFC contracts start expiring, fighters (who have ALL complained about WME's running of the company) will start jumping ship to the Bellator. Another benefit in Bellator's favor, is that they take the time to promote up and coming youngsters like Aaron Pico and MVP.... The UFC still puts ALL their eggs into one or two fighters. For younger talent, the opportunity to actually get a shot at being promoted and slowly developed, rather than sitting in the undercard of a Fight Pass event, getting ONE HIGHLIGHT REEL KO against another unknown, then thrown into a title shot because the UFC is trying to capitalize on that popularity, may seem like a better option.

not sure if I agree but it's a good discussion.

Bellator's divisions are still remarkably thin but overall fighters certainly are more spread out than a few years ago. What strikes me the most is the complete lack of quality upwards of 185 pounds everywhere and even at MW almost all of the big names are well into their 30's.

They aren't where the UFC is by any means.....yet. I guess my bigger point is Coker has slowly and methodically turned the tide in Bellator. Not long ago he was being knocked for the Kimbo/Dada freakshow fight. It was clear then he was using the freakshows to drive viewership in order to capitalize on the free agent market. The question was could he pull accomplished fighters. He has now started doing that and is bringing it all together into a better product. Lets say we see this trend continue. Coker suddenly lands a few more names and this gets interesting. Eddie Alvarez has a contract expiring, what if Coker convinced him to return? The distance isn't as great as it once was by any means.

 

[FrankieNYC]

2017 showed falling ratings & a PPV that lost them millions.
Both occurred while expenses rose.

The reality is that in a down year, UFC actually grew the gap between the two companies.

The Sonnen/Rampage viewership was actually less then hoped for (1.5m) considering they had two huge MMA names & it did less than past FREE TV events (with big names)

UFC EBITDA was over $300m for 2017, Bellator gross (before profit/EBITDA) is nowhere near 1/5 of that.

That being said, I hope this tourney does well & 2018 is a decent year for them. A healthy alternative to UFC is good for EVERYONE!

 

[Clappin'Daddys]

Like this discussion.

UFC is miles ahead as a profitable entity and has most of the top talent, but momentum has definitely shifted. WW divisions are very interesting. Keep in mind that Bellators WW Division is considerably younger as well.


I wish you would have compared the FW divisions. I like Bellator’s fw Division a ton. They have a mix of everything. Top fighters, seasoned middle of the pack fighters, up and comers, and prospects.

 

[aghof]

for all the silly-looking moves with big name dinosaurs at the top of the cards, they've been making wise moves like grabbing the top young wrestling prospects (Pico, Ruth, etc.) probably at a better rate than the UFC

 

[Clappin'Daddys]

for all the silly-looking moves with big name dinosaurs at the top of the cards, they've been making wise moves like grabbing the top young wrestling prospects (Pico, Ruth, etc.) probably at a better rate than the UFC

good point. it is just a matter of what you want to focus your attention on. you still hear people say that Bellator won't make it passed 2020 and such, but everything Bellator and Viacom are doing points to the exact opposite. Bellator investing really early on fighters like fortune, ruth, pico, davis, among many others.

Bellator signing top talent, bellator going international. Bellator signing tv deal after tv deal. none of this shows me that they are going away any time soon.

 

[MMAHAWK]

2017 showed falling ratings & a PPV that lost them millions.
Both occurred while expenses rose.

The reality is that in a down year, UFC actually grew the gap between the two companies.

The Sonnen/Rampage viewership was actually less then hoped for (1.5m) considering they had two huge MMA names & it did less than past FREE TV events (with big names)

UFC EBITDA was over $300m for 2017, Bellator gross (before profit/EBITDA) is nowhere near 1/5 of that.

That being said, I hope this tourney does well & 2018 is a decent year for them. A healthy alternative to UFC is good for EVERYONE!

MMA ratings across the board took a dive last year.
Did their Ratings fall at a higher percent then the UFC's did?
Do you have the numbers that show the PPV cost them millions?
I'm not saying you're wrong I'd just like to see the proof before believing these claims. The week up until Bellator 192 several members were claiming that the Main event change would be a disaster. I explained that the change would help ticket sales and tv ratings. The almost full house and 1.5 million viewers seem to confirm it was a smart move.

Also Sonnen vs Rampage was FREE and a 1.5M number would make it a top 5 or so event for them.

 

[Rambo John J]

I give any bellator champ a very good shot at taking UFC belt in a champ vs champ match

 

[Rambo John J]

2017 showed falling ratings & a PPV that lost them millions.
Both occurred while expenses rose.

The reality is that in a down year, UFC actually grew the gap between the two companies.

The Sonnen/Rampage viewership was actually less then hoped for (1.5m) considering they had two huge MMA names & it did less than past FREE TV events (with big names)

UFC EBITDA was over $300m for 2017, Bellator gross (before profit/EBITDA) is nowhere near 1/5 of that.

That being said, I hope this tourney does well & 2018 is a decent year for them. A healthy alternative to UFC is good for EVERYONE!

gotta take a loss to gain ground I think
Frittatas poured money in for awhile until that lame show took off

 

[BJJMMA]

Like this discussion.

UFC is miles ahead as a profitable entity and has most of the top talent, but momentum has definitely shifted. WW divisions are very interesting. Keep in mind that Bellators WW Division is considerably younger as well.


I wish you would have compared the FW divisions. I like Bellator’s fw Division a ton. They have a mix of everything. Top fighters, seasoned middle of the pack fighters, up and comers, and prospects.

I know my own weaknesses. My FW talk for Bellator would’ve been way too Pitbull heavy. Admittedly I am not the best to talk about the smaller classes. LOL

 

[Dat Pre-HollyHolm Ronda $]

War Bellator. WME are bigger clowns the Dana.

Yeah WME is killing the fucking UFC. Shit has been rolling down hill
ever since the Fertita's exited. These people know NOTHING about MMA

 

[BJJMMA]

Yeah WME is killing the fucking UFC. Shit has been rolling down hill
ever since the Fertita's exited. These people know NOTHING about MMA

I wouldn’t mind seeing a shift towards Bellator. I find when I show my casual MMA fan friends Bellator they love it. The problem is that you’d be shocked how few people are familiar with it. I wish they’d get picked up by a more recognized network than where they are. Maybe this rebrand to Paramount Network will be a good thing. It can’t have helped to have been on the network that slowly devolved into either continuous COPS or Bar Rescue shows.

 

[Clappin'Daddys]

I wouldn’t mind seeing a shift towards Bellator. I find when I show my casual MMA fan friends Bellator they love it. The problem is that you’d be shocked how few people are familiar with it. I wish they’d get picked up by a more recognized network than where they are. Maybe this rebrand to Paramount Network will be a good thing. It can’t have helped to have been on the network that slowly devolved into either continuous COPS or Bar Rescue shows.

Fact is that the ufc has flooded the market. the ufc is in the MMA business and the MMA business alone(boxing is going to be a thing though).

the problem with bellator is that a lot of their cards dont have casual names. When Bellator's B level events go up against the UFC's B level events, ufc will come out on top more often than not. the market is over saturated, but the ufc still has its name. when bellator and the ufc went head to head, UFC was pulling the bigger numbers during the fox sports prelims. it wasnt until the ppv started that bellator saw a big bump in ratings.

that interested me. this tells me that even the ufc's weaker cards will pull more casuals when they are free. this also tells me that ppv is becoming less and less viable. why pay for mma when you could get cards for free? bellator could compete against the ppv portion of a card because it doesnt cost anything for a fan to switch to paramount. the opposite cant be said though. if fans who are watching a bellator event want to also catch a ppv, they need to shell out 60 bucks.

 

[FrankieNYC]

MMA ratings across the board took a dive last year.
Did their Ratings fall at a higher percent then the UFC's did?
Do you have the numbers that show the PPV cost them millions?
I'm not saying you're wrong I'd just like to see the proof before believing these claims. The week up until Bellator 192 several members were claiming that the Main event change would be a disaster. I explained that the change would help ticket sales and tv ratings. The almost full house and 1.5 million viewers seem to confirm it was a smart move.

Also Sonnen vs Rampage was FREE and a 1.5M number would make it a top 5 or so event for them.

The break-even from Coker himself was 2-2.5M & the PPV did 900k-1m

That is possibly a $10m loss

1.5m for Sonnen/Rampage is not good at all

Bellator ratings went down at a lesser % then UFC, but UFC made budget cuts where Bellator added to expenses.
Also Bellator is far more reliant on ratings then UFC, because that is the way Viacom makes profit & why they own Belllator.

Like I said financially the gap grew even larger

 

[aghof]

er, has MMALOGIC made the transition to TMMAC?

 

[BJJMMA]

The break-even from Coker himself was 2-2.5M & the PPV did 900k-1m

That is possibly a $10m loss

1.5m for Sonnen/Rampage is not good at all

Bellator ratings went down at a lesser % then UFC, but UFC made budget cuts where Bellator added to expenses.
Also Bellator is far more reliant on ratings then UFC, because that is the way Viacom makes profit & why they own Belllator.

Like I said financially the gap grew even larger

Sure the ratings gap is there but my bigger point is that the talent gap has closed. Now the question will be if they keep closing that gap how many will watch Bellator or stick with UFC because that’s all they know.

But in terms of the UFC beating Bellator with prelims I would say a lot of that has to do with Fox, FS1 being much more watched channels anyway. There is a base for the UFC just for being on the Fox networks that Bellator lacks with Paramount.

Take this weekend for example. Bellator tops UFC in weekend ratings by 96,000 viewers
When the UFC was on FXX the least watched of the Fox family Bellator was able to best them out. Despite being on a Saturday night during the college football season.

Let say Bellator was able to labd some more UFC names to complement their young roster, continuing to close the talent gap, would the MMA fan flip and watch? I think Bellator does well with guys like many of us here that watch pretty much every fight we can, but can they ever lure the casual fan over? Or is the UFC just too much of a household name?

EDIT: also does anyone have a clue how Bellator performs in ratings outside of the US?

 

[Clappin'Daddys]

The break-even from Coker himself was 2-2.5M & the PPV did 900k-1m

That is possibly a $10m loss

1.5m for Sonnen/Rampage is not good at all

Bellator ratings went down at a lesser % then UFC, but UFC made budget cuts where Bellator added to expenses.
Also Bellator is far more reliant on ratings then UFC, because that is the way Viacom makes profit & why they own Belllator.

Like I said financially the gap grew even larger

Did coker really say that was the break even point?

I remember him saying “X amount was respectable”

Source?

 

[MMAHAWK]

The break-even from Coker himself was 2-2.5M & the PPV did 900k-1m

That is possibly a $10m loss

1.5m for Sonnen/Rampage is not good at all

Bellator ratings went down at a lesser % then UFC, but UFC made budget cuts where Bellator added to expenses.
Also Bellator is far more reliant on ratings then UFC, because that is the way Viacom makes profit & why they own Belllator.

Like I said financially the gap grew even larger

Ok let’s try this again
Bellator 192 with 1.5m makes it one of their top events Bellator TV Ratings Archives - The MMA Report Podcast

Now can you please provide a single source to any of your claims?

 

[Yossarian]

Strike Force and Pride were still bigger than Bellator ever was, and ever will be. Bellator did not get taken out/bought because they were never a threat, and never will be. They need some significant changes. Production is one thing. Then get rid of the retirement home smell by stopping the recruitment of the elderly. That is the equivalent of an interim belt. Young, marketable, legitimate fighters is what they need, without taking sloppy seconds off the UFC.

 

[Clappin'Daddys]

Strike Force and Pride were still bigger than Bellator ever was, and ever will be. Bellator did not get taken out/bought because they were never a threat, and never will be. They need some significant changes. Production is one thing. Then get rid of the retirement home smell by stopping the recruitment of the elderly. That is the equivalent of an interim belt. Young, marketable, legitimate fighters is what they need, without taking sloppy seconds off the UFC.

We could agree that it wasn’t as big as pride, but I completely disagree with you when you say that they haven’t been bought ou because they aren’t a threat. They haven’t been bought out because they are owned by Viacom. They haven’t been bought out because UFC has a ton of debt. If the ufc wanted to buy Bellator out, they would more than likely need to grossly overpay Viacom for it.

Bellator is miles behind the ufc, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t of any value.

Bellator provides Viacom with an entity that has multiple potential revenue streams. They provide Viacom with a product that could be shown across the world. Bellator provides Viacom with an entity that has realistic sustainability(as opposed to other shows that last for one, maybe two seasons)

How can you honestly say that they don’t view Bellator as a threat when Bellator has poached legitimate top 10/5 talent in multiple weight classes?

 

[Yossarian]

How can you honestly say that they don’t view Bellator as a threat when Bellator has poached legitimate top 10/5 talent in multiple weight classes?

Bellator did not poach anything. The UFC rejected.