Society Stop Giving Trump Credit for the Economy

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M

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If you don't massage the stats by moving people into the not in the labour force pool, then the real unemployment rate in the U.S. is currently around 21%.

To be fair though these stats have always been distorted in this way
 

Rambo John J

Baker Team
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Jan 17, 2015
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the economy is made of Glass no matter what you are reading or think

get some skills cause they are actually worth something
 

Belobog

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It goes into just as much conjecture and guess work as shadowstats.
Sorry man, shadowstats' unemployment and CPI numbers have been debunked countless times over the years.

Their CPI chart is just a linear formula applied to the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers.

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/3zik5t/shadowstatscom/


Even the crazies have stopped citing it.

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/Anarcho_Capitalism/comments/yrn2i/things_we_need_to_stop_doing_citing_shadowstats/
 

Zeph

TMMAC Addict
Jan 22, 2015
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Sorry man, shadowstats' unemployment and CPI numbers have been debunked countless times over the years.

Their CPI chart is just a linear formula applied to the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers.

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/3zik5t/shadowstatscom/


Even the crazies have stopped citing it.

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/Anarcho_Capitalism/comments/yrn2i/things_we_need_to_stop_doing_citing_shadowstats/
Both of those are about inflation statistics, which I wasn't defending, and the article you used to descredit the unemployment figures uses one poll from and insurance think tank and the New York Times, which doesn't cover the full age group for unemployment statistics, but the article just use extremely generous guesswork to expand it to cover their 'debunking'. Using one poll to come to conclusions is a problem in and of itself, as it could easily be an outlier in either direction, or their methodology could be dodgy for how they are accounting for acquiring information that is sensitive and people are known to lie about due to societal pressures.

The facts are there are 87.4mil people in BLS's own not in the labour force numbers for 2014, but being they are surveying households they don't count the homeless of which estimates are at 560k for the U.S. right now. There is a large bump to the official numbers, even with a large percentage not being able to work that will still bump the numbers nicely. Then we have the ill that will be afraid of losing their benefits if they mention they want to work, but it either isn't viable because the jobs aren't available that they can do where they live, or that the pay isn't worth it for the job they can get. Basically, every category will have people that would work if the jobs that suited them were available for them, but they've given up - and as such they just get thrown into not in the labour force and no in the unemployed statistics.

The BLS isn't designed to get nuanced answers and just throws people into specific categories, and if you haven't looked for work in the last 12 months you're thrown into the not in the labour force bracket and that's it you've dissappeared from the unemployed. For a lot of people the choice between working as a walmart greeter and staying on benefits isn't a choice at all, and that's how you've got ever lower and lower unemployment. Maybe shadowstats is wrong, maybe it isn't, but the premise is very much real.
 

KWingJitsu

ยาเม็ดสีแดงหรือสีฟ้ายา?
Nov 15, 2015
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I already posted - it's not going to last past the end of 2019.
Stay tuned.
 

Belobog

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WaPo and The Atlantic.
I extend an olive branch and you slap my hand away.

Et Tu Nut Hugger!?
Haha, an opinion article by Marc Thiessen as an olive branch. Good stuff.

Every president in the last generation, Republican and Democrat, has presided over at least 4 quarters of growth stronger than the 4.1% in Q2 2018. Trump calls it evidence of “economic turnaround of historic proportions" though.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,626
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I totally agree. There is a reason why the best and brightest never run.
I'm also going to take this opportunity to point out that the Roman empire at its peak I believe had 60 million people, 100 million at the highest of high estimates. Even before they got to that point the emperor was all like "Fuck, all this. This is too many people to manage." and divided the empire in half.
 
M

member 3289

Guest
I'm also going to take this opportunity to point out that the Roman empire at its peak I believe had 60 million people, 100 million at the highest of high estimates. Even before they got to that point the emperor was all like "Fuck, all this. This is too many people to manage." and divided the empire in half.
Yeah but they never had F-22s, bruv