Sports The 2019 Kentucky Derby & Triple Crown thread

[Wild]

Those that have followed my previous years Derby threads, know that I've done pretty well betting the last 4 Derby's, but still pissed about 2017. Legit should have won $20k, instead of $100 or whatever it was. Let's see what we can do this year.

Current Points Standings (this will change many times over the next 2 months):

Rank - - Horse - - Trainer - - Points - - Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. War of Will - - Mark Casse - - 60 - - $440,840
2. Code of Honor - - Shug McGaughey - - 54 - - $338,070
3. Game Winner - - Bob Baffert - - 30 - - $1,460,000
4. Bourbon War - - Mark Hennig - - 21 - - $90,200
5. Country House - - Bill Mott - - 20 - - $80,000
6. Knicks Go - - Ben Colebrook - - 18 - - $656,085
7. Signalman - - Kenny McPeek - - 18 - - $392,840
8. Gunmetal Gray - - Jerry Hollendorfer - - 18 - - $210,000
9. Long Range Toddy - - Steve Asmussen - - 16 - - $380,000
10. Mucho Gusto - - Bob Baffert - - 14 - - $210,000
11. Tax - - Danny Gargan - - 12 - - $167,500
12. Super Steed - - Larry Jones - - 10 - - $304,000
13. Mind Control - - Greg Sacco - - 10 - - $295,000
14. Improbable - - Bob Baffert - - 10 - - $239,520
15. Harvey Wallbanger - - Kenny McPeek - - 10 - - $208,320
16. Well Defined - - Kathy O’Connell - - 10 - - $172,970
17. Vekoma - - George Weaver - - 10 - - $147,600
18. Gray Attempt - - Jinks Fires - - 10 - - $136,666
19. Anothertwistafate - - Blaine Wright - - 10 - - $60,000
20. Roiland - - Tom Amoss - - 10 - - $47,460
21. Hog Creek Hustle - - Vickie Foley - - 9 - - $65,000
22. Sueno - - Keith Desormeaux - - 8 - - $165,000
23. Our Braintrust - - Cathal Lynch - - 6 - - $147,000
24. Hidden Scroll - - Bill Mott - - 5 - - $18,800
25. Bankit - - Steve Asmussen - - 4 - - $96,000
26. Everfast - - Dale Romans - - 4 - - $74,635
- +Tight Ten - - Steve Asmussen - - 4 - - $67,900
27. Not That Brady - - Rudy Rodriguez - - 4 - - $52,500
28. Plus Que Parfait - - Brendan Walsh - - 4 - - $40,400
29. Kingly - - Bob Baffert - - 4 - - $20,000
- +Call Paul - - Jason Servis - - 2 - - $281,420
30. Mr. Money - - Bret Calhoun - - 2 - - $100,000

Derby Prep Race Schedule:

Thunder Over Louisville will kick off 2 weeks of Derby festivities on Saturday, April 13th.

 

[Hauler]

Those that have followed my previous years Derby threads, know that I've done pretty well betting the last 4 Derby's, but still pissed about 2017. Legit should have won $20k, instead of $100 or whatever it was. Let's see what we can do this year.

Current Points Standings (this will change many times over the next 2 months):

Rank - - Horse - - Trainer - - Points - - Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. War of Will - - Mark Casse - - 60 - - $440,840
2. Code of Honor - - Shug McGaughey - - 54 - - $338,070
3. Game Winner - - Bob Baffert - - 30 - - $1,460,000
4. Bourbon War - - Mark Hennig - - 21 - - $90,200
5. Country House - - Bill Mott - - 20 - - $80,000
6. Knicks Go - - Ben Colebrook - - 18 - - $656,085
7. Signalman - - Kenny McPeek - - 18 - - $392,840
8. Gunmetal Gray - - Jerry Hollendorfer - - 18 - - $210,000
9. Long Range Toddy - - Steve Asmussen - - 16 - - $380,000
10. Mucho Gusto - - Bob Baffert - - 14 - - $210,000
11. Tax - - Danny Gargan - - 12 - - $167,500
12. Super Steed - - Larry Jones - - 10 - - $304,000
13. Mind Control - - Greg Sacco - - 10 - - $295,000
14. Improbable - - Bob Baffert - - 10 - - $239,520
15. Harvey Wallbanger - - Kenny McPeek - - 10 - - $208,320
16. Well Defined - - Kathy O’Connell - - 10 - - $172,970
17. Vekoma - - George Weaver - - 10 - - $147,600
18. Gray Attempt - - Jinks Fires - - 10 - - $136,666
19. Anothertwistafate - - Blaine Wright - - 10 - - $60,000
20. Roiland - - Tom Amoss - - 10 - - $47,460
21. Hog Creek Hustle - - Vickie Foley - - 9 - - $65,000
22. Sueno - - Keith Desormeaux - - 8 - - $165,000
23. Our Braintrust - - Cathal Lynch - - 6 - - $147,000
24. Hidden Scroll - - Bill Mott - - 5 - - $18,800
25. Bankit - - Steve Asmussen - - 4 - - $96,000
26. Everfast - - Dale Romans - - 4 - - $74,635
- +Tight Ten - - Steve Asmussen - - 4 - - $67,900
27. Not That Brady - - Rudy Rodriguez - - 4 - - $52,500
28. Plus Que Parfait - - Brendan Walsh - - 4 - - $40,400
29. Kingly - - Bob Baffert - - 4 - - $20,000
- +Call Paul - - Jason Servis - - 2 - - $281,420
30. Mr. Money - - Bret Calhoun - - 2 - - $100,000

Derby Prep Race Schedule:

Thunder Over Louisville will kick off 2 weeks of Derby festivities on Saturday, April 13th.

I haven't been to the track in a few years. I might hit Turfway on the 16th for that prep race.

As for the Derby, I think I've won the last two years based on your recommendations alone. Let's keep this train rolling...

 

[MMAPlaywright]

 

[Hauler]

holy jesus fuck. who is this?

 

[MMAPlaywright]

^ I don't know, but I posted her in another thread because she has something extra going for her

 

[Hauler]

^ I don't know, but I posted her in another thread because she has something extra going for her

A couple things going for her I'd say.

 

[Hauler]

^ I don't know, but I posted her in another thread because she has something extra going for her

I give you permission to post this picture in any thread you feel necessary.

 

[Never_Rolled]

She could turn @karasu straight


Maybe.

 

[Wild]

Now that all of the preps have been run, it's time to start digging into past performances & really start handicapping this thing. At first glance, I think the 4 horses most likely to win the Derby are as follows:

Maximum Security
Omaha Beach
Roadster
Improbable

A lot can change in 2 1/2 weeks though. Stay tuned...

 

[Robbie Hart]

Holy schnikes!

 

[Judobill]

I’ve never been to the Derby, but I’ve been to the airport there on Derby weekend a few times though. I’ve never seen anything like it, although South Bend comes close during a home game. There are hundreds of business jets crammed onto every square inch of pavement. Every taxiway is used to park them too. It is fucking crazy there. I wish I had a picture of it.

 

[Wild]

Alright, so we're 6 days away and here's where I'm at after studying past performances, times in the final preps, breeding, etc.

My gut tells me three horses stand out from this crop: Omaha Beach, Maximum Security, and Improbable. Here's the deal on Improbable though...he didn't win his final prep and that hasn't bode well lately. I think like 15 of the last 18 winners won their final prep.

Here's how I would rate my Top 10 (with the last 10 being tosses that I wont play in any of my bets)

1) Omaha Beach
2) Maximum Security
3) Improbable
4) Game Winner
5) Tacitus
6) Roadster
7) Win Win Win
8) Code of Honor
9) By My Standards
10) Tax

Now we wait for the post draw. Any of the above that draws Post 1 would be an immediate toss from the Win spot for me.

 

[Wild]

Omaha Beach scratched (will not race) due to a health issue. Haikal also scratched.

So now I'm here:

1) Maximum Security
2) Improbable
3) Game Winner
4) Tacitus
5) Win Win Win
6) Tax
7) Roadster
8) Code of Honor
9) By My Standards

 

[Hauler]

Maximum Security 9-2
Improbable 5-1
Tacitus 5-1
Game Winner 6-1
Roadster 9-1
Code of Honor 12-1
By My Standards 15-1
Win Win Win 15-1
War of Will 17-1
Vekoma 22-1
Cutting Humor 25-1
Gray Magician 31-1
Tax 37-1
Long Range Toddy 49-1
Master Fencer 50-1
Spinoff 51-1
Plus Que Parfait 55-1
Country House 64-1
Bodexpress 99-1

 

[TFK_Fanboy]

sister and bro in law are there

I have watched it the last few years, did not grow up watching it

 

[Hauler]

He didn't hit you. He didn't bump you. He didn't nudge you.

He rubbed you.

And rubbing is racing!

 

[Hauler]

Shit is gonna hit the fan if they disqualify the winner.

Kentucky will burn

 

[Hauler]

But I've seen DQs for far less egregious lane changes.

 

[Hauler]

This is nuts. Haha.

So much money at stake here.

 

[Hauler]

Wow. Winner DQ'd.

65-1 horse named the winner.

 

[SuperPig]

Wow. Winner DQ'd.

65-1 horse named the winner.

View: https://twitter.com/ananavarro/status/1124814643325800448

 

[member 603]

This Derby was insane, I'm still shocked that the 7-2 favorite was DQed, and a 65-1 took the win.... Shit is crazy

 

[Wild]

I’ve been at Churchill all day and am out at dinner right now, but I’ll Be on here tomorrow to tell you all just how fucked I got by Max Security being DQ’d. I pegged him as the winner and he ran an unbelievable race to wire that field like he did with those fractions.

 

[SuperPig]

I pegged him

Not the first time you've said that.

 

[Hauler]

I’ll Be on here tomorrow to tell you all just how fucked I got by Max Security being DQ’d.

On your suggestion, I bet him to win. Only bet $10 so no biggie, but I had him at 7:1 so that DQ cost me $70.

I know you bet the Derby heavy, so I'm sure the bloodshed was heavy.

He was definitely the fastest horse out there so you had that pegged. But he also drifted about 4 lanes and fucked shit up behind him. If he doesn't drift, I still think he wins.