#fuckthepolice #noblueline
M
member 603
Guest
Sounds like bulll. If it was that easy they would be building saunas not putting people on ventilators.
M
member 603
Guest
Exactly.... Although now that I give it thought.... It would be hilarious to see a bunch of cosmetic rhinoplasty ladies trying to inhale their hair dryers at home
@JonJonesBeard
To our conversation from last night, here's your answer on our lack of herd immunity and this thing not going away.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This is the paper that is informing USA and UK Corona virus policy.
System overwhelmed with no intervention estimated 4 million dead in 3 months. I'd have to go back and look at the percentages but it's like 15% of everybody over the age of 70.
If we isolate only the older people and higher risk groups you'll kill a million but you'll overwhelm the system still which will kill another million. 2 million dead in 3 months.
If you do a heavy lockdown for 3 to 4 weeks you see the curve flatten in the system can respond. So that's where we're at and that kind of matches the timeline that we saw for recovered cases in South Korea and Italy, though they picked very different ways to make the resolve cases start beating their new cases. This shoe is that at the end of a month you can't just put everybody back or The virus will come back faster than the healthcare system can respond resulting in those deaths all over again. You won't be able to identify and quarantine and isolate people fast enough so you get an outbreak. Regional and city returning to longer hours and things like that is what is recommended. And this sort of implies that this has to just happen until either enough heard immunity or a vaccine creates a firewall. And the vaccine will happen faster in about 12 to 18 months. so at the end of this you might see 100,000 Americans die over 18 months. Drastically better than doing nothing. And again this could get better if we see some experience with cases or prophylactic medicines like malarial pills that we've been talking about.
So for those reading this means expect a 4-week heavy slow down followed by slow loosening restrictions, but expect city or regional limitations on crowds for 12 to 18 months unless a new intervention is developed before then. You will essentially have outbreaks and local areas requiring ebb and flow of gathering and other limitations. So you might be good in Texas at large but Fort Worth or San Antonio might have to cancel schools for a week or whatever and then bring them back online as outbreaks happen.
So, doesn't that mean that we're still looking at a catastrophic outbreak for the next year and a half? It also kind of ignores the economic impact that keeping things throttled back for almost 2 years, and I don't mean big picture, I mean for the people being told they can't work.
To our conversation from last night, here's your answer on our lack of herd immunity and this thing not going away.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This is the paper that is informing USA and UK Corona virus policy.
System overwhelmed with no intervention estimated 4 million dead in 3 months. I'd have to go back and look at the percentages but it's like 15% of everybody over the age of 70.
If we isolate only the older people and higher risk groups you'll kill a million but you'll overwhelm the system still which will kill another million. 2 million dead in 3 months.
If you do a heavy lockdown for 3 to 4 weeks you see the curve flatten in the system can respond. So that's where we're at and that kind of matches the timeline that we saw for recovered cases in South Korea and Italy, though they picked very different ways to make the resolve cases start beating their new cases. This shoe is that at the end of a month you can't just put everybody back or The virus will come back faster than the healthcare system can respond resulting in those deaths all over again. You won't be able to identify and quarantine and isolate people fast enough so you get an outbreak. Regional and city returning to longer hours and things like that is what is recommended. And this sort of implies that this has to just happen until either enough heard immunity or a vaccine creates a firewall. And the vaccine will happen faster in about 12 to 18 months. so at the end of this you might see 100,000 Americans die over 18 months. Drastically better than doing nothing. And again this could get better if we see some experience with cases or prophylactic medicines like malarial pills that we've been talking about.
So for those reading this means expect a 4-week heavy slow down followed by slow loosening restrictions, but expect city or regional limitations on crowds for 12 to 18 months unless a new intervention is developed before then. You will essentially have outbreaks and local areas requiring ebb and flow of gathering and other limitations. So you might be good in Texas at large but Fort Worth or San Antonio might have to cancel schools for a week or whatever and then bring them back online as outbreaks happen.
From China? Sign me up.
D
Deleted member 1
Guest
If you just pull the bandaid off, yes.
But that's what they are saying. Undo the lock down in a taper in 4 weeks and then have to respond to regional and city outbreaks, but you'll be able to mobilize and deploy increased resources instead of just taking everyone spread thin on their own. So not expected the same total lockdowns for 12-18 months, just interventions and regional ebbs and flows.
That's just asking for looting and rioting.
Oh, so you posted the "if you pulled the bandaid off" scenario? I figured you'd post the reason why we're doing this scenario.
D
Deleted member 1
Guest
I posted what we're doing. Go read it.
The post first explains the impact of the bandaid approach, then the impact of slowly reintegrating as a contrast.
Sounds like he got extremely lucky. At best hes a fucking moron, at worst a disinformation agent and a boot licking shill.
This part:
D
Deleted member 1
Guest
I don't think you need to panic. If anything, the fact that we have some models suggesting a plan lets us start planning and importantly government and society and industry. The uncertainty is a big problem right now. So just trying to put out the playbook the US and UK are using for planning.
4 weeks hard, taper, then it depends on if your area has outbreaks or not. But the ability to raise the entirety of the national resources to intervene in those regional areas means they don't need as long or hard of interventions. You now have a larger system to respond to that.
In all models that overwhelm the system, half the deaths come from the system being overwhelmed.
my lady is medical
she is down to 10% of her income for next month at the least
luckily I am a prepper and keep stacks of cash around to cover that for now
Where do you live?
Mrs Beard got an email from work this morning and was told they'd be paying her in full until March 31st (which is the tentative end date for the state of emergency/closures) It's a huge relief for us, but I still worry about a lot of people with employers whom aren't as generous.
Where do you live?
I just got reminded me of that line. Again, see screen name for my level of panic.
That said, all these models seem to relate to the northern hemisphere. We enter flu season in April. We're definitely up shit creek without a paddle.
D
Deleted member 1
Guest
Oh shit. You're going to live the flu season threat that I've been worried about here if this came raging back in the fall.
Nice knowing you...
F
I hear ya
it is tricky tricky...not good
mortgages and landlord stuff is a potential nightmare over here
luckily I can still do 75% of my work and even employ her to be a grunt doing labor for me, I cut 25% of my jobs even though contracted because it was gonna put folks in a bad way to pay me right now.
As I considered the impact on a lot of people who don't work solo outside like me it kinda kept me up last night...pretty sad stuff...I had a heavy heart just thinking about it...hope the governments can dish out some of the funny money to keep people stable for awhile, the economy is already gonna be dust IMO so pass out the funny money for now
Thats what they are doing at my wifes work, anyone not working is being paid in full and told not to come to work. I think if the company is telling you not to come in they should be paying.