The Congressional Budget Office released its analysis of the tax overhaul Senate Republicans hope to pass this week, and like a previous analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), it found that the bill would increase the federal deficit by about $1.4 trillion over 10 years. The CBO also found that, compared to the JCT estimate, the bill would be worse for Americans earning less than $75,000, factoring in the changes to Medicaid, Medicare, and other health-related programs as well as zeroing out the Affordable Care Act individual mandate.
Under the CBO analysis, Americans earning up to $30,000 a year would be worse off by 2019, those earning $40,000 or less would take a hit by 2021, and Americans earning $75,000 or less would be worse off by 2027.
The amounts in the table are in millions: The table is saying, that people earning under $10,000 lose $8.7 billion as a group in 2025 under the bill, whereas people earning $1 million or more gain $15.8 billion as a group. It doesn’t tell us how much a typical family earning under $10,000 would lose, or how much a typical millionaire would gain, or which groups gain or lose more or less per person.
The table leaves out some factors that would make the Senate bill look worse. For instance, it doesn’t include the costs to upper-middle-class people who buy individual health insurance without a subsidy. Those people would face much higher premiums, because the individual mandate’s repeal would push healthy people off the insurance rolls. Because that change doesn’t affect federal spending, it doesn’t show up on the CBO ledger. The CBO also doesn’t attempt to estimate the effect of slashing the estate tax, a change that exclusively helps the ultrarich.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/11...estimate/reconciliationrecommendationssfc.pdf
Under the CBO analysis, Americans earning up to $30,000 a year would be worse off by 2019, those earning $40,000 or less would take a hit by 2021, and Americans earning $75,000 or less would be worse off by 2027.
The amounts in the table are in millions: The table is saying, that people earning under $10,000 lose $8.7 billion as a group in 2025 under the bill, whereas people earning $1 million or more gain $15.8 billion as a group. It doesn’t tell us how much a typical family earning under $10,000 would lose, or how much a typical millionaire would gain, or which groups gain or lose more or less per person.
The table leaves out some factors that would make the Senate bill look worse. For instance, it doesn’t include the costs to upper-middle-class people who buy individual health insurance without a subsidy. Those people would face much higher premiums, because the individual mandate’s repeal would push healthy people off the insurance rolls. Because that change doesn’t affect federal spending, it doesn’t show up on the CBO ledger. The CBO also doesn’t attempt to estimate the effect of slashing the estate tax, a change that exclusively helps the ultrarich.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/11...estimate/reconciliationrecommendationssfc.pdf