Sports DFS Thoughts & Opinions - and other Gambling tips

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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
Took the under in the Ohio State/Rutgers game. (60.5)
Huge weather system over Ohio. That game has a very good chance of seeing heavy rainfall.
I was nervous on this one as the game went on as the weather didn't effect the game as much as I thought it was going to, but I pulled it out.
I also won my Cincy straight up bet to beat Miami (that one was too easy) and my hypocrisy knows no bounds and I won when TTUN covered the 28 spread.

3-0 yesterday. Looking at NFL now.

So far I like:
Cincinnati to win outright (+107)
Ravens -8.5 (-101)
NYG to win outright over the Jags (+125)
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
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So Keelen Cole is the chalk today in cash games it seems. Don't usually play a whole lot week 1 but I'm playing more if that's the case. I'm halfway tempted to fade Conner too but that seems a little crazy. Kamara seems to be chalky too, but I like David Johnson a little more. Still week 1, not going nuts. Emanuel Sanders is my fav play on the board

QB's: Brees, Rivers, Keenum
RB's: DJ, Kamara, Collins, Hyde, Conner, White
WR's: AB, AJ Green, K Allen, Sanders. Love Michael Thomas too, just like the others a little more
TE's: Gronk, Doyle
DST: Ravens, Saints, Chargers

Probably going to have 3 main lineups, paying down at 2 RB spots with one of them in the flex & a alternating DJ/Kamara, locking in Sanders & mixing 2 of the 3 high priced WR's among the lineups. If I find my balls before lock, or have a drink or two, I might just sub out Conner for James White in a 4th lineup for some small field tourneys

Good luck boys, remember week 1 always plays out exactly how the talking heads predict!
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
College:

Although it was an ugly game, I was actually impressed with Miami (OH) quarterback Gus Ragland last week in his game against Cincinnati. I think we might see this dude on Sundays. They also have a receiver on that team that has NFL talent - James Gardner.

Miami (OH) plays Minnesota this weekend and they opened as 14 pt dogs. I jumped on that Sunday morning, and the line has since moved to +13. I still think that's a good value. I'm not predicting a win for Miami, but I think they'll keep it close.
 
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Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
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ok Hauler @Hauler what do you think for cash, don't think there'll be much injury news between now & Sunday

QB- Jimmy G, 6k against a Lions D that has maybe 5 NFL players on it & led by a guy quickly moving to the top of the worst NFL coaches list. 2 of Jimmy G's INT's came on accurate throws over the middle under 10 yards that Minn. just made great plays on that the Lions won't make.

RB- Tevin Coleman, don't love it but with Freeman out & a price tag of $5300 don't think there's an option here
RB- Melvin Gordon, $7400 one of my favorite plays on the day

WR- Antonio Brown, 3 slot corners start for KC, this should be a 100 yards & 2 TD day for him
WR- Enunwa, $4700, Darnold's favorite target, Enunwa got 10 targets last week, should get more Darnold didn't have to throw much in their blowout of DET
WR- Tyler Lockett, $4800 with Baldwin out should see most of Wilson's targets from the slot where Cobb carved up Chicago last week. This one is my least favorite play of them all, Wilson could be running for his life all game

TE-Kittle, Had 90 yards against Minn last week & dropped what would've been an 80 yard TD, Jimmy G's favorite target & facing DET
Flex- Conner, still in the Leveon Bell role, at $6700 he's still too cheap
D- Jets, I do like them but this was just the best option with what I had left

Can't figure out which Chief to play, the game has the highest Vegas total but PIT has played Kelce & Hill well in the past, though that was with Alex checkdown Smith. Mahomes is only $100 more than Jimmy G & looked at that a lot, just think Jimmy is the better play. I could see Hunt having a big day but Ware cut into his time a bit last week. Toyed with, & maybe still will, go down to Juju from Brown & so I can fit Kamara or Gurley in. Could see myself going away from Lockett to Godwin from Tampa if Jackson is out & the weather is ok & leave $200 on the table

Players that'll I'll have in tourneys, from most to least favorite then QB's
everyone I wrote about above,
Deandre Hopkins, 8k, NE gameplanned to take him away, Ten can't
Emmanuel Sanders is still too cheap
Julio
Landry ($6300) had 15 targets last week, could have as many this week & a dome instead of Cleveland's weather. Gordon wouldn't shock me if he had a huge game, probably won't play him until Mayfield takes over
Alfred Morris ($3600) & Breida ($4800) think one of these guys will have a good day just not sure which
Lamar Miller ($5400) had 20 carries last week, Ten is much better against the run than pass, but 20 carries is 20 carries, he's too cheap
M Thomas, Saints are going to put up a lot of points
Jordan Reed
Cmac- ATL is missing their 2 best defenders, Carolina's oline still sucks though
Tyrod/Brees/Ben- Tyrod for the garbage time, the rest b/c they'll put up a lot of points
 
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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
College
  • I like Oklahoma to steamroll Iowa State today. Oklahoma -18.5.
  • WTF is Miami playing @ Toledo for? And why is the line only 12? I know Miami isn't what they used to be, but they should be able to handle Toledo on pure athleticism alone. Miami -12
  • Wisconsin is good this year, but 22.5 feels like too many points. BYU +22.5
  • Ohio State -13. So many studs on this Buckeye team. They'll pull away late.

  • Oklahoma only won by 10. They never really got it going.
  • Nailed the Miami game. They won by 25 pts.
  • BYU beat Wisconsin outright.
  • TCU played tOSU much tougher than I thought they would and tOSU only won by 12. Would have covered if they had opted to kick a field goal at the end. Oh well.

I also missed the Miami/Minnesota game from a prior post.

2-3 on the weekend for college. Not good.
 
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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
NFL
  • Chargers -7.5 * The Bills are so bad.
  • Houston -3 * Tennessee is banged up. Watson has a day.
  • Philly -3.5 * Lightning won't strike twice for Fitzmagic.
Brutal week for me. I was right about the Bills.
But Texans lost by 3 (Houston's O-line is TERRIBLE), and Fitzmagic is a thing. Hopefully they can continue it next week against the 0-1-1 Steelers.
 
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Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
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I like Jimmy G / Kittle
Rivers/Allen/Gordon
I have my eye on that HOU @ TEN game. I'm thinking Watson might get back to his video game type stats this weekend.
if you're going w/ Jimmy G, keep an eye out for Pettis at 4k with Goodwin out, forgot to list him. Slay is the only Lions corner to worry about, I think he'll be on Garcon
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
if you're going w/ Jimmy G, keep an eye out for Pettis at 4k with Goodwin out, forgot to list him. Slay is the only Lions corner to worry about, I think he'll be on Garcon
Right now I'm at...
Jimmy G
James Conner
Melvin Gordon
Quincy Enunwa
Will Fuller (gotta keep an eye on his situation)
Ted Ginn
Kittle
Tyreek Hill
Rams
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
Right now I'm at...
Jimmy G
James Conner
Melvin Gordon
Quincy Enunwa
Will Fuller (gotta keep an eye on his situation)
Ted Ginn
Kittle
Tyreek Hill
Rams
I like it, I have personally never rostered Ted Ginn & had it work out, but he's in a good spot & can win a big tourney when he hits. Switched my main lineup from Lockett to Pettis & moved up to Broncos D. Toying with the idea of having a 2nd cash lineup where I go up to Big Ben at QB & down to the Buccaneers D, who I actually don't hate as a min priced D. Good podcast here from some smart guys Sharp Football Analysis
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
I like it, I have personally never rostered Ted Ginn & had it work out, but he's in a good spot & can win a big tourney when he hits. Switched my main lineup from Lockett to Pettis & moved up to Broncos D. Toying with the idea of having a 2nd cash lineup where I go up to Big Ben at QB & down to the Buccaneers D, who I actually don't hate as a min priced D. Good podcast here from some smart guys Sharp Football Analysis
Thanks
Been looking for some podcasts
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
I have another lineup that starts...
Phillip Rivers instead of Jimmy G
Kennan Allen instead of Tyreek Hill
Texans instead of the Rams
Nice. Ended up going off Pettis, onto Golladay, think I'm finally done tinkering. Dalvin Cook fit perfectly into some tourneys so I'm rolling him out
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
One of my worst weeks ever so feel free to fade this shit and make some bank.

Just took Seattle at +5
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
I'm not touching the game tonight. CLE is favored by 3. O/U is at 39.5
Both teams are too unpredictable to wager bets for/against.

DFS - I'm probably going to load my lineups with people from these 2 games.

49ers @ Chiefs
Saints @ Falcons

Bengals news:
Joe Mixon had surgery and is out a couple weeks. One would think Gio would take the majority of his carries and his salary on DK reflects that (last week he was $3800, this week he is $5900).

But...Gio has a banged up knee of his own and was limited in practice yesterday. Another RB (Tra Carson) pulled a hammy, so the Bengals went out and signed Thomas Rawls. Rawls has proven to be a capable back in the past. Also on the Bengals roster is rookie Mark Walton (Miami). He looked very good in preseason.

So with Gio getting limited snaps in practice and Rawls being brand new, my assumption is that Walton is getting the work in right now. He might be a sneaky play in DK ($3500). The Panthers gave up a shit ton of rushing yards to the Falcons last week.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
I'm not touching the game tonight. CLE is favored by 3. O/U is at 39.5
Both teams are too unpredictable to wager bets for/against.

DFS - I'm probably going to load my lineups with people from these 2 games.

49ers @ Chiefs
Saints @ Falcons

Bengals news:
Joe Mixon had surgery and is out a couple weeks. One would think Gio would take the majority of his carries and his salary on DK reflects that (last week he was $3800, this week he is $5900).

But...Gio has a banged up knee of his own and was limited in practice yesterday. Another RB (Tra Carson) pulled a hammy, so the Bengals went out and signed Thomas Rawls. Rawls has proven to be a capable back in the past. Also on the Bengals roster is rookie Mark Walton (Miami). He looked very good in preseason.

So with Gio getting limited snaps in practice and Rawls being brand new, my assumption is that Walton is getting the work in right now. He might be a sneaky play in DK ($3500). The Panthers gave up a shit ton of rushing yards to the Falcons last week.
Gio should be a full go from what I've read, but Tyler Boyd might be my favorite Bengal at $3700. My biggest debate right now is whether to play Kareem Hunt ($6k) in cash with all the RB value opening up

If you can't get up to the Vikings D I don't hate the Cowboys at $2200
 
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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
Ohio @ Cincinnati -8
Georgia -14.5 @ Missouri
TCU -2.5 @ Texas


Taking some road favorites today, and UC continues to get zero respect.

The Georgia line has me a little concerned. That's a lot of points and Georgia always fails me. But Mizzou gave up 37 points to Purdue, including 572 yards through the air. Mizzou has a good offense, but their D is pretty horrible. Georgia is impressive on both sides of the ball, and i doubt Mizzou keeps up.
 
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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
Brutal. A guy could get rich fading my picks so far this year. Haha.

UC spotted Ohio 21 fucking points before finally deciding to play. The refs were ridiculous in this game which didn't help at all (14 penalties against UC totalling 150 yards). UC eventually won by 4, but didn't cover.

Georgia had the ball inside the 10 with less than 2 to go and only came away with a FG. A TD gets me the win.

And I was straight up wrong with the TCU/Texas game. I didn't see that one coming. At all.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
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What Qb's did you go with? Went Watson/Fuller in my main lineup, have a tourney lineup with Brees/Kamara/Thomas stack. One longshot in gpp's with Luck that I smashed Gurley & Kamara into.

Getting nervous about going with Hunt over Gio in cash w/ the Bengals only having 2 RB's active & the 2nd one sucks

edit: I'm a puss, went 50/50 with Hunt/Gio in cash & 3 man tourneys
 
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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
cash team is leaving some to be desired, but my main tourney lineup could be something, how are your teams Hauler @Hauler


Went with Jimmy G again. Need him to get rolling.
I actually rostered 3 Bengals with Gio, Eifert and Boyd. Eifert was on sale.

It's not looking good so far. Haha.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
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Went with Jimmy G again. Need him to get rolling.
I actually rostered 3 Bengals with Gio, Eifert and Boyd. Eifert was on sale.

It's not looking good so far. Haha.
garbage time Jimmy G starts after halftime, hoping he throws it to Kittle a lot & KC runs Hunt all 2nd half

Is AJ coming back?

I hate pass interference, Ridley almost caught another bomb for a TD but was interfered with