General Fake news CNN trying to drag US into war with Iran by misrepresenting a random blog post

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Sheepdog

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Saudia Arabia: 'High probability' oil attack launched from Iranian base -- source - CNN

Blog post that CNN uses as justification that missiles were launched from Iran.
Meet the Quds 1

It's Iraq all over again with ‘unnamed sources’ pushing unclear ‘intelligence’ into the mainstream media. But the media are outdoing themselves - now whether we go to war or not rests on these unnamed sources mixed in with false interpretations of blog posts.

I'll try to do it in short sentences to keep it as quick as possible. It involves speculation around a particular Houthi missile.

1. CNN quotes unnamed Saudi officials as saying a particular Houthi missile (Quds 1) was used.

2. CNN quotes a blog post by a guy with a master's degree in International Relations (that usually qualifies you to work the fryer at McDonalds) saying that that particular Houthi missile couldn't travel that far.

3.Yes, seriously, that's the entirety of their 'expert' evidence.

4. CNN somehow comes to the conclusion that "if the wreckage in the desert is indeed that of Quds 1 missiles, it strengthens the assertion that the missiles did not begin their journey in Yemen."

Assuming that a Master's in International Relations makes your word gospel, let's see what blog post guy actually says:

5. Houthis do have missiles that can hit that target at that range, but doesn't believe the particular missile that Saudi Arabia says was used can

6. Saudi Arabia has misidentified particular missiles in previous press releases about attacks from the Houthis.

7. "However, so far we haven’t seen any trace of the Quds 1 in Iran proper. This riddle is not unique to the Quds 1. Beginning in 2018, several missile systems began to emerge in Yemen that while broadly similar to Iranian-designed systems have no exact Iranian equivalent." - So the Quds 1 is a Houthi variant.

8. Blog guy makes no clear assertion one way or the other on where the attack came from.

9. The blog post itself is deeply flawed, but we don't even need to go in to that.

So here we have it folks - a blog post that is inherently based on pure speculation and relies on several unreasonable assumptions that doesn't even come to the same conclusion the article does, is used as justification for blaming Iran and thus going to war.
 
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Sheepdog

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Also, the attack may well have come from Iran. But the more likely explanation is the simple one - that the Houthis, who launch drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia every other day, and who have claimed responsibility, were responsible.

The Houthis are opportunistically supported by Iran, but to call them proxies is basically a lie. They are not Hezbollah. They are the descendants of historical rulers of Yemen who have a history of conflict with Saudi Arabia decades before a Saudi Arabia-Iran proxy war was a thing.

The blog post makes the assumption that the Houthis couldn't have developed sophisticated missiles alone because Yemen is poor, and it's likely they received some help from Iran, but it's still nothing but a flawed assumption. There's this country called North Korea that's not exactly rich either, and they've done alright recently. The Houthis, like the North Koreans, have access to old Soviet missile technology that they can build on.
 

Splinty

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Also, the attack may well have come from Iran. But the more likely explanation is the simple one - that the Houthis, who launch drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia every other day, and who have claimed responsibility, were responsible.

The Houthis are opportunistically supported by Iran, but to call them proxies is basically a lie. They are not Hezbollah. They are the descendants of historical rulers of Yemen who have a history of conflict with Saudi Arabia decades before a Saudi Arabia-Iran proxy war was a thing.

The blog post makes the assumption that the Houthis couldn't have developed sophisticated missiles alone because Yemen is poor, and it's likely they received some help from Iran, but it's still nothing but a flawed assumption. There's this country called North Korea that's not exactly rich either, and they've done alright recently. The Houthis, like the North Koreans, have access to old Soviet missile technology that they can build on.

Attack didn't come from Yemen. Distance too far. Houthis have claimed similar attacks that originated from Iraq. It probably came from there given Kuwaiti reports.
 

Sheepdog

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Attack didn't come from Yemen. Distance too far. Houthis have claimed similar attacks that originated from Iraq. It probably came from there given Kuwaiti reports.
Oh, for fuck's sake.
 

Splinty

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Houthi drone attacks on the same facility originated in similar style from Iraq already. How dare I suggest that happened again but hit the mark this time.
August 2019
Iran-Aligned Houthis Strike Major Saudi Oil Field

May 2019
Mideast Insurgents Enter the Age of Drone Warfare


Getting cruise missiles from Yemen no big deal. But getting drones is a big difference and there's no evidence they did so. There is evidence to the contrary developing and I've posted in the all things Saudi in Yemen thread.
 

Sheepdog

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Attack didn't come from Yemen. Distance too far. Houthis have claimed similar attacks that originated from Iraq. It probably came from there given Kuwaiti reports.
Houthi drone attacks on the same facility originated in similar style from Iraq already. How dare I suggest that happened again but hit the mark this time.
You are posting dubious assertions based on evidence we haven't yet seen as if they are facts. You clearly didn't read my posts or any other critical assessment of what we are being told. You clearly have learned nothing from the Iraq debacle.

The Houthis do have missiles that can reach that distance. So your 'distance too far' shit is a downright falsehood. That doesn't mean those particular missiles were or were not used.

If you read my second post, you'd be aware that I acknowledge that Iran could be behind the attacks from its own soil or Iraq. I'm waiting for actual evidence. You should try it.
 

Sheepdog

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Drone attacks didn't come from yemen. I hope that keeps you up at night.
Why would you stating an opinion as a fact keep me up at night?

Maybe you're right. Maybe you're not.
 

Wild

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Dec 31, 2014
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Trump won’t be influenced by these clowns. People label him as some unstable lunatic but he’s been pretty damn level headed when it comes to going to war IMO.
 

KWingJitsu

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Nov 15, 2015
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Trump won’t be influenced by these clowns. People label him as some unstable lunatic but he’s been pretty damn level headed when it comes to going to war IMO.
Mixing cough syrup with whiskey, is bad. Mmmmkay?
 

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
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August 2019
Iran-Aligned Houthis Strike Major Saudi Oil Field

May 2019
Mideast Insurgents Enter the Age of Drone Warfare


Getting cruise missiles from Yemen no big deal. But getting drones is a big difference and there's no evidence they did so. There is evidence to the contrary developing and I've posted in the all things Saudi in Yemen thread.
Sorry to interrupt you there for one more second, Professor Houthi drone distance expert. But would you be able to explain to me how the Houthis are able to attack targets in Saudi Arabia roughly 1000km away from Yemen and 320km west of Riyadh, but they can't target a city 370km east of Riyadh and roughly 1000km away from Yemen? I know that the Houthis control areas of west Yemen, but we don't know that cells can't operate from east Yemen. Seems like their drones are pretty capable of long range strikes deep into Saudi territory regardless, wouldn't you say?

Saudi Arabia says oil stations attacked by armed drones

Again, maybe the Houthis weren't responsible. But you are talking complete shit by categorically ruling them out, when they are in fact the most likely to be responsible.
 

Toelocku

*I Know What I Know if you Know What I Mean*
Dec 15, 2018
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Attack didn't come from Yemen. Distance too far. Houthis have claimed similar attacks that originated from Iraq. It probably came from there given Kuwaiti reports.
Source?
 

Toelocku

*I Know What I Know if you Know What I Mean*
Dec 15, 2018
5,694
4,969
August 2019
Iran-Aligned Houthis Strike Major Saudi Oil Field

May 2019
Mideast Insurgents Enter the Age of Drone Warfare


Getting cruise missiles from Yemen no big deal. But getting drones is a big difference and there's no evidence they did so. There is evidence to the contrary developing and I've posted in the all things Saudi in Yemen thread.
The Wall Street Journal is pay to view

What evidence is there that they're saying that these could be coming from iraq?
 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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Sorry to interrupt you there for one more second, Professor Houthi drone distance expert. But would you be able to explain to me how the Houthis are able to attack targets in Saudi Arabia roughly 1000km away from Yemen and 320km west of Riyadh, but they can't target a city 370km east of Riyadh and roughly 1000km away from Yemen? I know that the Houthis control areas of west Yemen, but we don't know that cells can't operate from east Yemen. Seems like their drones are pretty capable of long range strikes deep into Saudi territory regardless, wouldn't you say?

Saudi Arabia says oil stations attacked by armed drones

.
Because they didn't strike from Yemen then either.
U.S. says Saudi pipeline attacks originated in Iraq: Wall Street Journal


Again, maybe the Houthis weren't responsible. But you are talking complete shit by categorically ruling them out, when they are in fact the most likely to be responsible.
What is about geography that makes you so confused on responsibility?
The argument from me is whether drones likely came from yemen or not... probably not. They probably came from Iraq giving the history and current evidence from Kuwait. As well as the areas that Saudi is not protected with air defenses.

I have not argued that Iran caused it or whatever. Houthis did it or someone did it at their request. But the drones probably didn't come from Yemen. You're very focused on probably. Me too. Probably Iraq.
 

Sheepdog

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Because they didn't strike from Yemen then either.
U.S. says Saudi pipeline attacks originated in Iraq: Wall Street Journal




What is about geography that makes you so confused on responsibility?
The argument from me is whether drones likely came from yemen or not... probably not. They probably came from Iraq giving the history and current evidence from Kuwait. As well as the areas that Saudi is not protected with air defenses.

I have not argued that Iran caused it or whatever. Houthis did it or someone did it at their request. But the drones probably didn't come from Yemen. You're very focused on probably. Me too. Probably Iraq.
Geography is important because you initially argued that distance precluded the Houthis from hitting that far away. If these drones in the May attack were launched by Iraqi militia, then they've bypassed this closer facility hit this time and traveled deep into Saudi territory nearly the same distance away from Iraq as this facility is from Yemen. So if Iraqi militia has drones that have that capability, the Houthis probably do too.

The Saudis didn't blame Iraqi militias for the attack you speak of. They just blamed the Houthis. The Houthis took credit for them. Iraq denied its airspace was used to launch them. So it's 3-1 on who was responsible. Maybe American intelligence, being more sophisticated, is right. But again, that whole Iraq thing might want to make re-think blindly believing everything your government tells you.

And the point of the thread was to shit all over CNN's shoddy war mongering reporting rather than claim that the US accusations are necessarily false. The CNN article was focused on cruise missile evidence, not on the drones.
 

Filthy

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Trump won’t be influenced by these clowns. People label him as some unstable lunatic but he’s been pretty damn level headed when it comes to going to war IMO.
maybe he remembers how Vietnam went for Nixon.
 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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Geography is important because you initially argued that distance precluded the Houthis from hitting that far away. If these drones in the May attack were launched by Iraqi militia, then they've bypassed this closer facility hit this time and traveled deep into Saudi territory nearly the same distance away from Iraq as this facility is from Yemen. So if Iraqi militia has drones that have that capability, the Houthis probably do too.

The Saudis didn't blame Iraqi militias for the attack you speak of. They just blamed the Houthis. The Houthis took credit for them. Iraq denied its airspace was used to launch them. So it's 3-1 on who was responsible. Maybe American intelligence, being more sophisticated, is right. But again, that whole Iraq thing might want to make re-think blindly believing everything your government tells you.
I'm 75% serious and 25% taking the piss because you like to post in a way that if anyone disagrees they are morons.
The 25% is in the absolutism of my posts because of your absolutism in anyone disagreeing with you.

Available evidence suggest the Houthis don't have the capacity to make such a sophisticated drone strike from Yemen and yes, part of that is due to it being too far. Could they have new tech? sure. Iran and North Korean tech has advanced them to now. But I doubt it. It's a big jump. They have mostly stupid short range drones and a handful of long range drones with shitty targeting that regularly crash when attempting these long range runs. And they only have a few. Not 17 with sophisticated swarm targeting for a a small area.

To your point that distance of Iraq and Houthi is the same, no...

To the recent target...
Border regions of Houthi Yemen - 700+ miles
Bleeding edge of Yemen, not Houthi controlled - 500+ miles
Southern Iraq, overlapping Kuwait (as per drone sightings, so not even the closest distance) 300+ miles

We are talking huge differences here. But there's also the Kuwait sightings, cruise missile pieces north of the site and not south, etc.

In the end, check my M Night Shyamalan ending...I'm not convinced drones attacked the facility and may have been only cruise missiles.

If we are talking occam's razor, as we have been, then that's the answer.

And the point of the thread was to shit all over CNN's shoddy war mongering reporting rather than claim that the US accusations are necessarily false. The CNN article was focused on cruise missile evidence, not on the drones
CNN is shit. I didn't disagree. B
 

Filthy

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I'm 75% serious and 25% taking the piss because you like to post in a way that if anyone disagrees they are morons.
The 25% is in the absolutism of my posts because of your absolutism in anyone disagreeing with you.

Available evidence suggest the Houthis don't have the capacity to make such a sophisticated drone strike from Yemen and yes, part of that is due to it being too far. Could they have new tech? sure. Iran and North Korean tech has advanced them to now. But I doubt it. It's a big jump. They have mostly stupid short range drones and a handful of long range drones with shitty targeting that regularly crash when attempting these long range runs. And they only have a few. Not 17 with sophisticated swarm targeting for a a small area.

To your point that distance of Iraq and Houthi is the same, no...

To the recent target...
Border regions of Houthi Yemen - 700+ miles
Bleeding edge of Yemen, not Houthi controlled - 500+ miles
Southern Iraq, overlapping Kuwait (as per drone sightings, so not even the closest distance) 300+ miles

We are talking huge differences here. But there's also the Kuwait sightings, cruise missile pieces north of the site and not south, etc.

In the end, check my M Night Shyamalan ending...I'm not convinced drones attacked the facility and may have been only cruise missiles.

If we are talking occam's razor, as we have been, then that's the answer.



CNN is shit. I didn't disagree. B
strategically, it could be a test run to see if the Houthis can give cover to direct Iranian action against Saudi Arabia. A low-visibility, high-value asset...next time it's "Houthi" missiles landing in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi...or if they really want to kick some shit off, Mecca.

but I'm not sure how well it survives Occam's Razor.