General WTF is happening in Barcelona
- Thread starter mysticmac
- Start date
What's happening is a bunch of dipshits in Catalonia and Hong Kong are playing pretend secessionist guerillas with no coherent strategy. They are too weak to engage in outright proper armed rebellion or organize effective mass passive resistance, and they have no chances of getting (real) external support. Rioting - without accompanying armed insurrection - is the worst thing you can do because it simply turns the movement against itself without making the state pay a high enough price.
They are just exercises in self-destructive futility.
They are just exercises in self-destructive futility.
As far as i know... Catalonia is a rich region of spain and they were sick of being shafted by spanish government. They bring in a large amount of money for the government and a disproportional tiny amount is spent back on them. Spain wouldn't give them a better deal so they tried to claim themselves as an independent country, that is what those riots were about 6 months ago or whenever.
Now, the Catelano polititians that proclaimed independence were just very recently convicted and jailed by the spanish government, so riots are flairing up again.
Now, the Catelano polititians that proclaimed independence were just very recently convicted and jailed by the spanish government, so riots are flairing up again.
History isn't on the side of this claim as what's called a riot in popular media today is just as often called an uprising or insurrection tomorrow. It really depends on the narrative being advanced in the media and by the state. The circumstances on the ground in Catalan couldn't be more different than in Hong Kong as the separatist movement has been well organized and dates back decades. It coalesced into a political party and referendum that was repressed by the Spanish government, which invoked Constitutional powers to do so. That decision ended up costing the ruling party the government as they were soundly defeated in the next election by the Workers Party who promised some form of reconciliation. Obviously, the jailing of the elected officials of Catalan is not a step in that direction, but Perez seems to claim his hands are tied on preventing that outcome, just as he's tempering the government response to these protests.
Hong Kong has its own complexities, not really worth going into here, but also comes out of popular reactions to political deals and betrayals. That's really the limit of their commensurability.
They are commensurable in that they are both secession movements (even if many Hong Kongers don't realize or admit it).
And history is very much on my side, as is the empirical evidence. Most secession movements fail. And the key ingredients for successful secession are not there in these cases.
I have a good Catalan mate and am very much on their side. But it's just not going to work. The population isn't prepared for real violence and the international support isn't there.
Things can change with Catalonia, but they fucked up a good chance and it's now a long way back.
I don't use 'rioting' in a negative sense. I understand discursive framing. To me if you are marching or refusing to take action, you are protesting. If you are smashing shit, you are rioting. Doesn't mean you aren't justified. Just because these words are twisted to suit agendas by blurring the lines between them doesn't mean that sensible distinctions don't exist.
Hong Kong is just suicide if it keeps going. There's no other word for it. The CCP would burn the place to the ground before it would let it go.
While we lionize those fighting for their rights, there is a responsibility for 'sacrifice' not just be directionless nihilism under the banner of democracy. Hong Kong was a nice place. Now it's not a nice place. (Mostly) Peaceful protests inacted the immediate change they wanted (the repeal of the extradition law). Now, violent protests serve no purpose but to wreck the place.
Hong Kongers would be better off rioting more explicitly about what's driving a lot of this - a still internal (not mainland) system that is driving the world's worst housing costs and income inequality. Direct the anger at the fuel source and you might actually achieve something.
Again, I think the equivalency with Hong Kong is a reach. Hong Kong may blossom into a secession movement, but it's not there yet. The Catalan situation is a failed secessionist movement that was brutally repressed by a reactionary government and now has the benefit at least of a friendlier regime that will make concessions. Again, neither history nor sociology in this case support the idea of riots or uprisings being necessarily ineffective as they usually have the effect of leading to political concessions and resource allocations. There are plenty of precedents for this, though they seldom get as much play among institutionalists or would be revolutionaries because they tend not to satisfy either group's litmus test for what constitutes desirable social action. From the English working class in the 18th century to Peasant uprisings across South America in the 19th to African American direct action in the post-1968 era to even white supremacists in the Jim Crow south and Brown shirts in Europe, the so called riot has a history of helping to achieve political negotiation and financial or policy investment in particular areas. In the Catalan case, demonstrators have a vested interest in holding the Workers Party to account, restoring their political apparatus and brokering more autonomy even if their secession plans are taken off the table. The capability (or desire) to move to armed insurrection suggests a misread of the motivations as even within Barcelona, there is sharp division on the secession question today considering the fallout from the initial referendum based on the reports from my own friends who live there. Now the situation has more to do with the relationship with Madrid and what it will be going forward than trying to leave expressly. The political leadership technically has to be prosecuted under the Constitutional pretext Madrid used to invalidate the referendum in the first place, and the demonstrators have every reason to let it be known loudly that however justice is meted out, it should be to their satisfaction. Considering the length of the sentences doled out, it seems like the government is reneging on treating the Catalonians fairly in the minds of many, mostly younger (and probably undisciplined) demonstrators. The current local leadership is urging calm, but they have no choice, as they have to throw their chips in with Perez as well.
I never said all forms of riots/protests can't be politically effective. And they can be successful as part of secessionist movements.
But we are talking secession specifically. And Hong Kong is a secessionist movement - there is no 'yet'. They exist as an unviable exception in an authoritarian society, and tensions were always going to come to a head at some point. Wanting 'more democracy' is wanting secession because obviously that isn't a real option. Let's cut the shit.
If only there were some sort of force multiplier that civilians could own that would let them even the playing field a little bit.