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Splinty

Splinty

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Brian Ortega's Goon Hand said:
fuck.

it didn't have to be this way.
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Yeah. This is becoming standard at many hospitals. My friend who's an orthopedic surgeon is now taking one week trauma call at a time. they all rotate the phone so they can get some sleep but only one person is on call for the surgeries so that your minimizing who is exposed to the undifferentiated population.
 
Filthy

Filthy

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Splinty said:
Yeah. This is becoming standard at many hospitals. My friend who's an orthopedic surgeon is now taking one week trauma call at a time. they all rotate the phone so they can get some sleep but only one person is on call for the surgeries so that your minimizing who is exposed to the undifferentiated population.
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this is going to be a significant and completely undocumented/unknowable cost of incompetent leaders managers.
 
Splinty

Splinty

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Brian Ortega's Goon Hand said:
this is going to be a significant and completely undocumented/unknowable cost of incompetent leaders managers.
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At the hospital level? I mean, we already can wax poetic about the missed opportunities until now at the government level, but we are here...

What do you propose instead? Seriously.
 
Filthy

Filthy

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Splinty said:
At the hospital level? I mean, we already can wax poetic about the missed opportunities until now at the government level, but we are here...

What do you propose instead? Seriously.
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no, i meant at the government level. they made a big shit sandwich, now everybody gotta take a bite.
everyone will talk about the 'confirmed deaths' as a metric of the severity, but there are so many other costs that'll be associated with this.

But what we can do is make sure that our elected bureaucrats are estimating those costs when they talk about relative costs of the disease and 'the cure'.
 
Splinty

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2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-CoV)
247 cases in dallas county.

I've been claiming that Southern urban centers are about a week behind the coasts who are a couple weeks behind Italy. That's just hip pocket because there's so much testing variability and international airport exposure, tourist travel, etc. But the national numbers show we are altogether 3 weeks behind Italy.

lets math it. At current growth in Dallas county...
1000 cases in a week
4000 in 2 weeks
16000 in 3 weeks
64000 in 4 weeks

2.6 million people in dallas county

Where is italy today? 1100+ cases per million.
So around 2860, lets call it 3000, cases needed to see Italy level infection? a little shy of 2 weeks?
Now we have 5 times as many ICU beds as Italy per capita. So you should be able to prevent death at a greater level at first, but that's still gonna be a complete shit show a week or so later when you double and quadruple that number with no increased capacity.


Now Dallas has implemented a lot of interventions, but I think its important to realize how close this is to happening and still might.
 
ThatOneDude

ThatOneDude

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Splinty said:
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-CoV)
247 cases in dallas county.

I've been claiming that Southern urban centers are about a week behind the coasts who are a couple weeks behind Italy. That's just hip pocket because there's so much testing variability and international airport exposure, tourist travel, etc. But the national numbers show we are all together 3 weeks behind Italy.

lets math it. At current growth in Dallas county...
1000 cases in a week
4000 in 2 weeks
16000 in 3 weeks
64000 in 4 weeks

2.6 million people in dallas county

Where is italy today? 1100+ cases per million.
So around 2860, lets call it 3000, cases needed to see Italy level infection? a little shy of 2 weeks?
Now we have 5 times as many ICU beds as Italy per capita. So you should be able to prevent death at a greater level at first, but that's still gonna be a complete shit show a week or so later when you double and quadruple that number with no increased capacity.


Now Dallas has implemented a lot of interventions, but I think its important to realize how close this is to happening and still might.
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What's the this you speak of?
 
Splinty

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Harris County (Houston) is just now getting testing going and I promise it will shoot the moon beyond Dallas. There was community spread into the surrounding rural areas weeks ago. There are so many untested people and Houston has a lot of multi-generational living with a huge population. Gonna be bad.
 
Splinty

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ThatOneDude said:
You said "I think its important to realize how close this is to happening and still might."

What's "this"?
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Overwhelming the system, death, destruction, end of days, cats and dogs living together....

aka not flattening the curve enough.
 
ThatOneDude

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Splinty said:
Overwhelming the system, death, destruction, end of days, cats and dogs living together....

aka not flattening the curve enough.
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Do you think Texas is doing enough to flatten the curve? How long would it take us to know the curve is flattening? A day or 2? A week?
 
Splinty

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ThatOneDude said:
Do you think Texas is doing enough to flatten the curve? How long would it take us to know the curve is flattening? A day or 2? A week?
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I dunno the lag time from intervention to case effect. But you would see the exponential growth slow down as a result.
I do think we are doing a lot of good things but its not very uniform, which is kind of okay upfront but only a week later (again due to exponential moves) it isn't. So you can tell your rural areas to implement soft distancing moves while the urban areas need hard ones. But they are only 7-10 days in lag time because your rural areas rely on overflow of patients to larger tertiary centers anyways...and those will be full.

to answer your question, I'm not sure. The testing is all over the place and that make data difficult to compare. And thats a mirror of the country which is how you get a national forced shelter in place because you don't have data to be more surgical.
 
ThatOneDude

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Splinty said:
I dunno the lag time from intervention to case effect. But you would see the exponential growth slow down as a result.
I do think we are doing a lot of good things but its not very uniform, which is kind of okay upfront but only a week later (again due to exponential moves) it isn't. So you can tell your rural areas to implement soft distancing moves while the urban areas need hard ones. But they are only 7-10 days in lag time because your rural areas rely on overflow of patients to larger tertiary centers anyways...and those will be full.

to answer your question, I'm not sure. The testing is all over the place and that make data difficult to compare. And thats a mirror of the country which is how you get a national forced shelter in place because you don't have data to be more surgical.
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Thanks for the informative response.
 
Chief

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Isn't this how half the Natives were wiped out when the Europeans started showing up in their ships? Now it's the Asians turn.
 
sparkuri

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Famed chef Floyd Cardoz dies of coronavirus at 59





“Sincere apologies everyone. I am sorry for causing undue panic around my earlier post. I was feeling feverish and hence as a precautionary measure, admitted myself into hospital in New York,” he wrote, adding he “was hugely anxious about my state of health.”
Cardoz was born in Bombay, India, and moved to New York City to work in restaurant kitchens. In 1997, he partnered with famed restaurateur Danny Meyer’s Union Square Hospitality Group to open the contemporary Indian restaurant Tabla, which quickly became an iconic Manhattan establishment, earning three stars from the New York Times. He subsequently opened North End Grill, Paowalla and Bombay Bread Bar in the city. Most recently, he opened The Bombay Canteen and Bombay Sweet Shop in Mumbai, India.
“Good food is not only about how it looks on the plate,” he told PEOPLE in 2015 of his passion for the hospitality industry. “It’s about how good it makes the person eating it feel.”
 
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