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Yo son this is about to be the biggest FRAT you ever read in your life so if you don't have the time or brain capacity, feel free to scroll through and mock me for wasting so much time. BUT to anyone who does read this shit, please let me know whether you agree or disagree, and why. I can also explain more on why I think the way I do, but I will leave that out cuz it's already too long (wrote this intro in post production kid).
I've been an avid listener to Dave Meltzer's radio show and reader of his newsletter for so many years now, that I feel like I know 10000x more about the actual business side of MMA than I ever did before by simply watching and reading forum posts. And to anyone out there who associates Dave with pro wrestling and doesn't understand that he is THE numbers guy when it comes to MMA, and has been covering it every single week since before the first UFC even happened? Well, then you probably don't really know a lot about the business side of this sport, because EVERY respectable writer/reporter/journalist will tell you, Meltzer is the godfather of this shit.
The only people who disagree are forum posters who think he is just a pro wrestling writer, and have never actually read his publication, listened to his several times weekly radio shows (that always focus on the business side of things in immense detail numbers wise to the point some may even consider it boring), or know the history of who he is and how long he has been covering MMA in depth. There is literally no argument against it, Meltzer is the foremost authority on the business side of this sport, and has been the #1 source to all journalists for everything we know about the UFC's PPV buys and business info for over 2 decades.
Through listening to his show every single week for over 5 years now, it's really helped me to keep up with and grasp the actual business part of this organization and the way it moves. Before I found out about his stuff, I even worked for an MMA promotion closely in New England that was owned by my cousin, and despite doing that for three years, I learned more from listening to Meltzer in six months than I ever did by actually doing the work myself.
So here goes.. my take on the shit, and why I can almost guarantee the rematch will be happening. So, put on some background music like this:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBU7cfXYWLo
Smoke a bowl (or blunt or vape, whatever your preferred method is), and read this shit.. respond.. and then come to the conclusion that "Holy fuck, this dude has way too much time on his hands to talk about MMA on a forum"
PS sorry for typos BTW, I am too lazy to proof read this and try to make ti read like a fucking article or something, it's just a rant about shit. And, I think this picture below will give you an idea of my inspiration for tripping the fuck out and typing for a half hour while listening to Ghostface. This little cluster of herb in my hand just got ground up and rolled into a zig zag wrap :'( perhaps the greatest feeling in the world, so great, that I want to cry in fact. Hold me bros. It'll be okay.
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The rematch will be the biggest women's fight in MMA history, and depending on how things work out, could end up being the biggest UFC show ever.
There is NO WAY the UFC is gonna give up the massive pay day of an immediate rematch. None. Zero zip nada. Unless Rousey somehow flat out refuses, and says no to the tens of millions of dollars thrown in her face, they are doing the rematch.
Here's the thing.. SHOULD Ronda do it from a career stand point? Probably not.
However, can you just imagine if they have Holm fight someone like Tate or Nunes, let's say in Feb or March? That show will do less than 300,000 buys if that';s the headlining fight. However, Holm vs Rousey 2 is an EASY 800k-1mil plus show, depending on the undercard and co main. Easily.
People were buying Ronda's PPVs en masse when everyone knew her opponents had no chance and she was beating them in record time. Now there is an actual story, an actual desire from the main stream public to see ROnda face Holly Holm. Before that, the public had no interest in seeing Holly, they just wanted to see Ronda vs anybody.
Now they can play up the huge revenge angle, the comeback angle, etc. They'll build Rousey saying that her personal life was so crazy going into the fight and it screwed her up. Maybe they reveal she had some big injury. They will do everything they can to convey that the Ronda we saw at 193 was nowhere close to the "real" Ronda Rousey, and this time we will see her more motivated than ever, coming back to win her title.
That's how they'll paint it anyway. Think of how they promote Anderson vs Weidman 2. It was all about the "fluke" win and the long time dominant champ coming back to get his title again. They also had Rousey on the co main.. and that show was one of the most purchased in company history.
Now just think... Imagine if they do Rousey vs Holm at UFC 200? And let's just say someone like Conor wins his fight against Aldo, or loses a super close split decision? ORRR maybe they do Jones vs Cormier 2 on the show also? Point is, any huge marquee fight combined with Holm vs Rousey 2 is going to be massive, more than likely break a mil easy. Ronda was coming close to a mil when fighting people that all her fans (casuals unlike us) had no idea about, and didn't need to. Now there is a legit story for those people to sink their teeth into. It'll be so huge.
Depending on what may happen with Conor next month, if he were to win, just try to imagine how massive a Conor McGregor vs anyone show would be with Conor as the legit champ (possibly Aldo rematch, Frankie maybe, Mendes rematch if he beats Frankie, etc)... and then add if Holm/Rousey 2? AND throw those on UFC 200, with a ridiculous and rarely stacked, filled with names the public actually cares about?
Now that I have laid it out like that. Just imagine if Holm fights BEFORE the Rousey rematch. and then imagine her losing! Everything would be squandered, millions upon millions of dollars lost. There is no way they are gonna take that chance. Like I said, the only reason they'd have to not do this fight is if somehow, Ronda doesn't wanna make the biggest pay day of her entire career, and tells the UFC she would rather an easier fight to come back to... and even then, I feel like they would put so much money on the table for her it'd be impossible to say no.
The UFC is alllll about the money, and there is not a single doubt in my mind that we will see an immediate rematch. Cyborg is pretty much out of the picture at the moment.. the only thing she had going for her was a possible Rousey fight, and that won't happen right now, and may not ever. They definitely are not gonna bring in Cyborg out of nowhere without ever having made 135 previously to come in and face Holly
All signs point to rematch... and massive amounts of money
Again, all about the money in prize fighting.. That's why Fedor is making MILLIONS and MILLIONS of dollars to face guys like TK in Japan, who have been out of their prime for almost two decades. What would you rather do.. fight in the UFC for 500k flat rate and a $5,000 Reebok sponsorship (LOL) against tough, in their prime fighters who will train harder than ever in hopes of beating you and making a name off of your legendary status?
Or would you rather get paid multiple times the amount of that, again literally millions of dollars per fight, against someone who victory is almost guaranteed over? Not only is the money sweet, but someone like Fedor would be ridiculous to come out of retirement after 3+ years and try to jump in IMMEDIATELY with the best. Cage rust is real, and any fighter coming off a layoff that's nearly 1/3 a decade should get at least one fight under their belt before hopping in with the elite... now add in the fact you are being paid absolute millions of dollars in cash from Japan? Who in their right mind would ever say no?
Lol do people think if Jon Jones became a free agent tomorrow, and the UFC offered him 2.5 mil per fight, but some random organization offered him like 7 or 8 mil a fight against guys he knows he can beat easily.. does anyone think Jon Jones would stay in the UFC for a more than 50% pay cut and the risk of losing to guys who are at the top of the sport, training every day for years to take YOU down? (and yes I know about the champion's clause in contracts, Jones couldn't just walk away tomorrow, I'm just using him as an example of an elite fighter who, like anyone else with a brain, would happily take additional millions of dollars to face lesser competition)
So yeah, you must all be wondering, why the fuck is he talking about Fedor and Jon Jones?
Well, it's just to illustrate my point that this is prize fighting.. and when you are talking so many millions of dollars for massive events - events that'll probably make you more money in a single shot than you made in 50% of your careers timeline - people stop caring about legacy, stop caring about things like "am I facing the top ranked guy" or "am I being true to myself as a martial artist by accepting this massive pay day to secure the future of my family"?
NO, they are like, holy fuck, yes I would love millions of dollars people. Let's fight
And that's what will happen with Ronda.
Rousey vs Holm 2, UFC 200 (barring injury/extended medical suspension from Ronda).... bet on it, and if they put together the card on a HUGE scale the way they did at UFC 100, and no one gets hurt.. expect every record to be shattered son.
Imagine if UFC 200 is something like this?
Conor vs Aldo 2 (either way, if their fight is remotely close, you know the rematch is happening despite who wins)
Holm vs Rousey 2
Anderson vs Vitor 2
In that third spot where Andy and Vitor are, you can put in ANY big name, big time fight.. and if you add just 2 more to the main show, like Hendo vs Bisping or anything to get the public's interest.. you are going to have a huge show. I realize there's all rematches there, but somehow the scene in MMA has worked out to where all of those rematches would make sense for the night of the show (obviously barring Conor vs Aldo 2 since the fight hasn't happened yet and we have no idea how it'll play out)
Even if Conor gets his ass beat by Aldo, you could put him as the non title co main event on UFC 200 with Holm and Rousey headlining, and it'll still be huge
I could talk about this shit all day, but I feel like from everything I have ever observed about:
1) the fight business itself across all combat sports
2) prize fighters and their motivation
3) the UFC's mentality and approach to money being the most important aspect
4) the UFC's fascination with immediate rematches when their marketable champions lose
There is just no doubt in my mind that, like I said unless an injury or something weird happens... I would bet my life on Holm vs Rousey 2 being the next fight lined up. I had a lot of run writing this, I am so fucking bored sitting here lol, and typing this shit all out got me mad excited for the possibilities of future shows and the UFC 200 card itself
I know people have the misconception that 2015 was somehow a bad year for the UFC... yet they broke every single record, business wise, they ever had, except the single day PPV record set by UFC 100. The largest gate ever, the largest attendance ever, the largest FS1 rating ever (McGregor vs Siver, which nearly doubled the previous record of the FS1 debut show with Shogun vs Sonnen.. .that I happened to be at in attendance). Once 2015 has closed out, they will come quite close to the most PPV buys in a calendar year since 2009 (and we still have not had the 193 numbers come in, and 194 is going to add a massive chunk to the total.. we will definitely see at least another 1.5 mil PPV buys from the amount of 193 and 194 combined)
Yeah there has been some big time injuries, but compared to the disastrous 2013/14 PPV buy rate and ratings wise.. Things are actually looking up and quite a bit. Now keep in mind that UFC 200 is coming up in Summer next year, and I really believe that things are just going to continue getting better going into 2016.
I know this sounds crazy coming from me.. because as anyone who knows me understands quite well, I am the furthest thing from a Zuffa shill and don't always agree with their decisions. But, facts are facts, and trends show a pattern, and right now things are going up. This is a good thing, because it means fighters making more money and people being more interested in the sport. With Bellator putting on their massive show with Ken/Royce and surely a few other giant ratings grab freakshow events... 2016 could be one of the biggest years ever, numbers wise, for the sport of MMA as a whole in America.
I'm happy with that, because I love this shit