General 84,000 deaths in the US in the next month

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kneeblock

Drapetomaniac
Apr 18, 2015
12,435
23,026
This is the current prediction of the CDC.


These deaths are theoretically preventable, but this administration and Congress have communicated that they are willing to let these deaths happen. This forecast could be incorrect in either direction, so let's see in a month. The current estimate of COVID deaths stands at 833,988 according to Johns Hopkins data.


So let's check back on February 8. May fortune ever fall in your favor.
 

Greenbean

Posting Machine
Nov 14, 2015
2,861
4,185
Great, all we gotta do is force everyone against their will to inject something that was rushed for the sake of large corporations profits. Also continue to blame skeptics for something they had nothing to do with in the first place, while letting the people who are responsible for this, off Scott free. Makes sense! Remember, this is chinas fault. Not the mom and pop up the road struggling to stay open by balancing business with these mandates, which half of their customers reject.
 

Robbie Hart

All Biden Voters Are Mindless Sheep
Feb 13, 2015
49,704
50,709
Great, all we gotta do is force everyone against their will to inject something that was rushed for the sake of large corporations profits. Also continue to blame skeptics for something they had nothing to do with in the first place, while letting the people who are responsible for this, off Scott free. Makes sense! Remember, this is chinas fault. Not the mom and pop up the road struggling to stay open by balancing business with these mandates, which half of their customers reject.
How dare you ever think the govt would allow a company to profit from something potentially or otherwise known to be harmful to a persons health or finances! Gasp!

how the hell do you expect them to create financial windfalls for they and their friends?

the arrogance and gall! Get ready for them to make up all kinds of shit about you to crush you from any kind of opinion (or fact) like that
 

Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
are people still spouting that vaccination/booster is going to provide protection against Omicron for > 60 days?

LoL.

science DGAF.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
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are people still spouting that vaccination/booster is going to provide protection against Omicron for > 60 days?

LoL.

science DGAF.
This simply doesn't describe the reality at all.
What is "protection"?


Results for hospitalisations are shown in Table 5 and Table 6. One dose of vaccine was associated with a 35% reduced risk of hospitalisation among symptomatic cases with the Omicron variant, 2 doses with a 67% reduction up to 24 weeks after the second dose and a 51% reduced risk 25 or more weeks after the second dose, and a third dose was associated with a 68% reduced risk of hospitalisation. When combined with vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease this was equivalent to vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 52% after one dose, 72% 2 to 24 weeks after dose 2, 52% 25+ weeks after dose 2 and 88% 2+ weeks after a booster dose. Table 5: Hazard ratios (HR) against hospitalisation with Omicron and Delta (all brands combined) (CI=Confidence interval) HR against hospitalisation (95% CI) Dose Interval after dose Omicron Delta 1 4+ weeks 0.65 (0.30-1.42) 0.27 (0.2-0.37) 2 2-24 weeks 0.33 (0.21-0.55) 0.1 (0.09-0.13) 2 25+ weeks 0.49 (0.30-0.81) 0.15 (0.13-0.18) 3 2+ weeks 0.32 (0.18-0.58) 0.11 (0.09-0.14)

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: Omicron update 13 Table 6: Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation for Omicron (all vaccine brands combined). OR = odds ratio, HR = hazard ratio, VE = vaccine effectiveness (CI=Confidence interval) Dose Interval after dose OR against symptomatic disease (95% CI) HR against hospitalisation (95% CI) VE against hospitalisation (95% CI) 1 4+ weeks 0.74 (0.70-0.77) 0.65 (0.30-1.42) 52% (-5-78) 2 2-24 weeks0.82 (0.80-0.84) 0.33 (0.21-0.55) 72% (55-83) 2 25+ weeks 0.98 (0.95-1.00) 0.49 (0.30-0.81) 52% (21-71) 3 2+ weeks 0.37 (0.36-0.38) 0.32 (0.18-0.58) 88% (78-93) These estimates suggest that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with the Omicron variant is significantly lower than compared to the Delta variant and wanes rapidly. Nevertheless, protection against hospitalisation is much greater than that against symptomatic disease, in particular after a booster dose, where vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation is close to 90%. Further data is needed to estimate the duration of protection against hospitalisation. Experience with previous variants suggests that this will be sustained longer than protection against symptomatic disease
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
This simply doesn't describe the reality at all.
What is "protection"?


Results for hospitalisations are shown in Table 5 and Table 6. One dose of vaccine was associated with a 35% reduced risk of hospitalisation among symptomatic cases with the Omicron variant, 2 doses with a 67% reduction up to 24 weeks after the second dose and a 51% reduced risk 25 or more weeks after the second dose, and a third dose was associated with a 68% reduced risk of hospitalisation. When combined with vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease this was equivalent to vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 52% after one dose, 72% 2 to 24 weeks after dose 2, 52% 25+ weeks after dose 2 and 88% 2+ weeks after a booster dose. Table 5: Hazard ratios (HR) against hospitalisation with Omicron and Delta (all brands combined) (CI=Confidence interval) HR against hospitalisation (95% CI) Dose Interval after dose Omicron Delta 1 4+ weeks 0.65 (0.30-1.42) 0.27 (0.2-0.37) 2 2-24 weeks 0.33 (0.21-0.55) 0.1 (0.09-0.13) 2 25+ weeks 0.49 (0.30-0.81) 0.15 (0.13-0.18) 3 2+ weeks 0.32 (0.18-0.58) 0.11 (0.09-0.14)

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: Omicron update 13 Table 6: Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation for Omicron (all vaccine brands combined). OR = odds ratio, HR = hazard ratio, VE = vaccine effectiveness (CI=Confidence interval) Dose Interval after dose OR against symptomatic disease (95% CI) HR against hospitalisation (95% CI) VE against hospitalisation (95% CI) 1 4+ weeks 0.74 (0.70-0.77) 0.65 (0.30-1.42) 52% (-5-78) 2 2-24 weeks0.82 (0.80-0.84) 0.33 (0.21-0.55) 72% (55-83) 2 25+ weeks 0.98 (0.95-1.00) 0.49 (0.30-0.81) 52% (21-71) 3 2+ weeks 0.37 (0.36-0.38) 0.32 (0.18-0.58) 88% (78-93) These estimates suggest that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with the Omicron variant is significantly lower than compared to the Delta variant and wanes rapidly. Nevertheless, protection against hospitalisation is much greater than that against symptomatic disease, in particular after a booster dose, where vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation is close to 90%. Further data is needed to estimate the duration of protection against hospitalisation. Experience with previous variants suggests that this will be sustained longer than protection against symptomatic disease
How do they know what variant a patient has? The results I've seen just say "positive" or "negative".
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
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How do they know what variant a patient has? The results I've seen just say "positive" or "negative".

We don't know your individual case.
They take existing swabs that are sent to county or state level sources and they were on statistical analysis. You take a hundred positive swabs for that week and see how many come out as a particular variant. You look at the positivity rate and the population you took the swabs from.
From there you can estimate the variant breakdown inside of that population within a 95% chance of being right (standard variance)
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
We don't know your individual case.
They take existing swabs that are sent to county or state level sources and they were on statistical analysis. You take a hundred positive swabs for that week and see how many come out as a particular variant. You look at the positivity rate and the population you took the swabs from.
From there you can estimate the variant breakdown inside of that population within a 95% chance of being right (standard variance)
And they then look up which swabs had patients that were vaccinated and which ones weren't?
What about folks with Omicron who never need hospitalization? It's impossible to calculate accurate statistics when you don't have all the numbers.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
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While basically everything is less effective against omicron, conflating that with NOT effective is inaccurate.




Mask around people, go camping, enjoy the sunshine if you have some. Limit your exposing to strangers over the next month. We all getting this eventually. But that's not the total story.
You don't want to be the one that punches through to the hospital when there's no functioning hospital to be had. You don't want your local hospital overrun when you have a non COVID medical need.


Probably one more wave and we all done with this clinically. But data is early and you don't want to be callous. Societal risk is still high neven as individual risk is probably dropping.
 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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And they then look up which swabs had patients that were vaccinated and which ones weren't?
What about folks with Omicron who never need hospitalization? It's impossible to calculate accurate statistics when you don't have all the numbers.
I started to give you answers to all of this, but you already made up your mind by the end of your post. It's not impossible to calculate. The numbers needed are there.

The reason confidence intervals exist is to define a range with good probability. The interval itself is an admission of inability to perfectly predict the future. But the ranges are usually right.

Continuing to act like something needs to be 100% perfect future prediction and not just right within an interval 95% or 99% ( The two most common confidence intervals) of the time is to state a no understanding of statistics.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,414
57,814
I started to give you answers to all of this, but you already made up your mind by the end of your post. It's not impossible to calculate. The numbers needed are there.

The reason confidence intervals exist is to define a range with good probability. The interval itself is an admission of inability to perfectly predict the future. But the ranges are usually right.

Continuing to act like something needs to be 100% perfect future prediction and not just right within an interval 95% or 99% ( The two most common confidence intervals) of the time is to state a no understanding of statistics.
It sounds like guessing to me. Or maybe call it an educated assumption.

Not dismissing the 95% claim. But if 100 million people actively have Omicron but didn't need to be hospitalized, does that not change the calculation?
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
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Not dismissing the 95% claim. But if 100 million people actively have Omicron but didn't need to be hospitalized, does that not change the calculation?
Yes. But see above. We probably gonna overrun again here in Texas. Smaller number hospitalized but more transmissible and our behaviors and acting like this is already done (it's not) will accelerate this. It's not inevitable and doesn't have to be as bad.

We will all get omicron. A small number will be hospitalized. Smaller than Delta or Wuhan.

The goal is to just not get it all at once and be as protected from hospitalization as you can when you do get it.
 

Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
This simply doesn't describe the reality at all.
What is "protection"?


Results for hospitalisations are shown in Table 5 and Table 6. One dose of vaccine was associated with a 35% reduced risk of hospitalisation among symptomatic cases with the Omicron variant, 2 doses with a 67% reduction up to 24 weeks after the second dose and a 51% reduced risk 25 or more weeks after the second dose, and a third dose was associated with a 68% reduced risk of hospitalisation. When combined with vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease this was equivalent to vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 52% after one dose, 72% 2 to 24 weeks after dose 2, 52% 25+ weeks after dose 2 and 88% 2+ weeks after a booster dose. Table 5: Hazard ratios (HR) against hospitalisation with Omicron and Delta (all brands combined) (CI=Confidence interval) HR against hospitalisation (95% CI) Dose Interval after dose Omicron Delta 1 4+ weeks 0.65 (0.30-1.42) 0.27 (0.2-0.37) 2 2-24 weeks 0.33 (0.21-0.55) 0.1 (0.09-0.13) 2 25+ weeks 0.49 (0.30-0.81) 0.15 (0.13-0.18) 3 2+ weeks 0.32 (0.18-0.58) 0.11 (0.09-0.14)

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: Omicron update 13 Table 6: Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation for Omicron (all vaccine brands combined). OR = odds ratio, HR = hazard ratio, VE = vaccine effectiveness (CI=Confidence interval) Dose Interval after dose OR against symptomatic disease (95% CI) HR against hospitalisation (95% CI) VE against hospitalisation (95% CI) 1 4+ weeks 0.74 (0.70-0.77) 0.65 (0.30-1.42) 52% (-5-78) 2 2-24 weeks0.82 (0.80-0.84) 0.33 (0.21-0.55) 72% (55-83) 2 25+ weeks 0.98 (0.95-1.00) 0.49 (0.30-0.81) 52% (21-71) 3 2+ weeks 0.37 (0.36-0.38) 0.32 (0.18-0.58) 88% (78-93) These estimates suggest that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with the Omicron variant is significantly lower than compared to the Delta variant and wanes rapidly. Nevertheless, protection against hospitalisation is much greater than that against symptomatic disease, in particular after a booster dose, where vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation is close to 90%. Further data is needed to estimate the duration of protection against hospitalisation. Experience with previous variants suggests that this will be sustained longer than protection against symptomatic disease
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
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That also doesn't state what you said.
It also doesn't contradict when I posted.


Define the goal of the vaccine. What's "protection"?
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
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Will it become part of the typical flu shot that everyone ignores or will it be a separate recommended booster every year?

If it's as mild as the early day to shows, I don't think there's any indication and need to do that. It will also depend on its mutating and how long we all garner hospitalization preventing immune response after being exposed.

Flu is pretty unique because of it. Essentially disappearing mutating and moving back around the world.

Omicron is looking like we're all going to get it at once.
 

Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
That also doesn't state what you said.
It also doesn't contradict when I posted.


Define the goal of the vaccine. What's "protection"?
if VE is < 50%, you can't know whether it was the vaccine or "prayers and vitamins" that stopped the bad COVID.

yes?