General 84,000 deaths in the US in the next month

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Rambo John J

Eats things that would make a Billy Goat Puke
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
71,717
71,602
How deaths are recorded is very important. It's quite common to use deaths within 28 or 60 days of a positive test. With Omicron, that's very ambiguous because so many people will be infected in a short amount of time, that a large majority of "regular" deaths will be included in that count, even if covid had nothing to do with their deaths. Eg let's say 10,000 people die per month regularly. Well now 5,000 will have tested positive for covid recently.

I think a good metric is looking at the mortality rate between vaccinated and unvaccinated. At the moment, unvaccinated people have a vastly higher risk of death. That may change in a couple of weeks as omicron has become the dominant strain.
Vastly?

lol
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,569
57,917
1/9/21
7 day avg of 253,936 new cases
3,189 deaths per day
1.26% death rate per positive test

1/9/22
7 day avg of 718,210 new cases
1,688 deaths per day
0.24% death rate per positive test

3x the cases
1/2 the deaths

If you believe the numbers.
 

sparkuri

Pulse On The Finger Of The Community
First 100
Jan 16, 2015
34,628
46,701
Literally a single neuron connected to a single brain cell in a single pathway of critical thought, would come to a single conclusion derived from 2 of the last 3 posts, yours & Hauler @Hauler .

- Governments #1 job is to protect itself.
- Government didn't self-mandate.

QUICK, SOMEONE CALL CHRIS LANGDON TO DECIPHER THIS PUZZLE!

IS BOBBY FISHER AVAILABLE??

ELON???

2-tier society.
 

kneeblock

Drapetomaniac
Apr 18, 2015
12,435
23,026
Let's see what the CDC Director's latest response was on November 4th 2021 a little over 2 months ago:



View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r3pN6x5Ayes



Damn kneeblock @kneeblock ....CDC Director Rochelle Walesky doing her best Dominic Cruz impression:


They're staying home, like most people whose employers aren't forcing them to. The vaccine doesn't prevent infection and again, this thread isn't about vaccines. No clue why folks keep talking about them. I can only say I hope no one you know dies of this like the people I knew who are now gone.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,096
As omicron peaks, it's worth considering there will be roughly the same number of cases and deaths on the downslope (without major intervention that doesn't appear to be coming).
Let's check the last two weeks.

Screenshot_20220124-011604.png

About 2k deaths a day on average. 60k a month. There a bit of lag time but 60-70k deaths in the time frame referenced in OP appears to be the current target. We might have a higher peak of deaths late Jan through late Feb as the lag happens from cases to death.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,096
[/QUOTE]
Is there a net increase of deaths compared to January 4 years ago?
Lets look
8,478 total deaths per day for jan and 8344 for december

Looks like we are still calculating 2020 so 2021 isn't available from the CDC yet. There's probably another source but I'm drinking coffee and need to leave soon.

We are way up year over average year. But you're asking about a specific month.

During January–December 2020, the estimated 2020 age-adjusted death rate increased for the first time since 2017, with an increase of 15.9% compared with 2019, from 715.2 to 828.7 deaths per 100,000 population.
1643032583098.png


So lets use December as a close month to January since that's historically true and see Dec 2020. Again Jan 2021 data isn't fast available.
About 80,000 deaths per week for the last proximal month we have data on.
320,000/31 days = 10,300 deaths per day. About 24% higher than December 2017 vs December 2020.




Your real question is whether the deaths are up or these people are just going to die anyway.

They are up at a rate of 800k+ excess deaths since the Pandemic started and we have lost 1.8 years of life expectancy in that same time over the average of the population.
 
T

The Big Guy

Guest
Doctors desperately scrambling to keep the covid money pouring in

"Old people are dying, this is unprecedented"
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,096
Doctors desperately scrambling to keep the covid money pouring in

"Old people are dying, this is unprecedented"

Truly one of the most ignorant and offensive things I've ever seen you post on this website.
 

kneeblock

Drapetomaniac
Apr 18, 2015
12,435
23,026
So it looks like we came in at 70,623 deaths in the past month, according to Johns Hopkins data. United States - COVID-19 Overview - Johns Hopkins

The CDC's prediction was off by about 14,000 people, which is good news, but ~71,000 in a month is brutal. The record number of deaths is still 96,654 from January, 2021. At this rate and assuming some decline this month due to declining infections (that could be offset by mask policies getting thrown out), we'll cross a million deaths in the US by early April and hit 6,000,000 dead worldwide probably sooner, which is very hard to wrap my mind around.