The Biden administration is planning to rush the last of over $6 billion remaining in Ukraine security assistance out the door by Inauguration Day, as the outgoing team prepares for the weapons flow to end once President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
The plan, described by two administration officials who were granted anonymity to discuss internal matters, is the only option the White House has to keep sending equipment to Ukraine to fight off continued Russian offensives. But the problems are immense. It normally takes months for munitions and equipment to get to Ukraine after an aid package is announced, so anything rolled out in the coming weeks would likely not fully arrive until well into the Trump administration, and the next commander in chief could halt the shipments before they’re on the ground.
One big holdup to pushing that aid out the door quickly is that the U.S. can only send equipment already on its shelves. While the money allocated reimburses the Pentagon for that equipment, it is dependent on how fast new artillery shells and weapons can be produced or contracted to replace them.
“We have been sending whatever industry can produce each month, but the problem is you can only send these things as they are produced,” said Mark Cancian, a former DOD budget official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The administration could dip into the stockpiles and send equipment more quickly, but it’s unclear the Pentagon would want to do that since it would affect its own readiness.”
The Pentagon will remain “on track to continue to provide the authorized assistance to support Ukraine,” Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col. Charlie Dietz said. “We expect to have further assistance in the coming weeks.”
The money remaining from April’s $61 billion Ukraine aid package is tied up in two buckets. There is $4.3 billion to pull existing stocks and $2.1 billion in funding to put weapons on contract with U.S. defense companies.
During Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington in September, Biden directed the Pentagon to allocate the remainder of the military aid that had been appropriated for Ukraine by Congress before the end of his term. That included plans to parcel out the remaining Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds, money that the government can use to put weapons in production for Ukraine instead of buying them off the shelf, by the end of 2024.