General Corona virus updates

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Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,095
The current twitter conspiracy is that all the deaths have already happened and this thing is burning itself out.
I want to poopoo that stupidity for a second.

The only reason that deaths have been going down is New York and New Jersey. That and the other spread occurring in less dense populated areas that dont need the same level of intervention as urban centers.

That is, lots of people died there already and those ares have instituted heavy interventions.

The same twitter memes and threads promoting this idea are ignoring that the cases/deaths are going down due masks and interventions there.

This has been the case for the last month. American getting coronavirus under control has just been NYC and NJ getting their outbreak under control and then that affecting our overall stats so strongly.




Confirmed
3.11M
+62,425
Deaths
134K
+810
LocationConfirmedDeaths
New York404K31,945
California296K6,708
Texas229K
+9,979
2,935
+98
Florida224K
+9,989
3,888
+48
New Jersey176K
+161
15,423


There's nothing magical here. If you have more cases in an undifferentiated population, you will have more deaths. The lag time is happening now. We will bump deaths down here in a few weeks. And then twitter will move on to its next undermining of a unified response that could get us back to life sooner.

Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso, Beaumont, Tyler are all dense enough that they could see hospital shortages. Not good.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,095
Highest daily death count in Florida yesterday

View attachment 9634

Twitter taking advantage of aggregating national stats when we always knew the southern states were on a different timeline than the coasts that got hit earlier. It'll be a few weeks before we see the uptick in deaths here so the whole time Twitter will champion the death rate that was a result of lockdown derp while complaining against masks and social distancing.

My own hospital is not full which is the case most summers....except the COVID19 unit. We almost out of beds. We'll have to take up another wing at this rate and I see no slowing down here. I'm watching Houston and Dallas fill up, but the Rio Grande Valley looks like they are going to get hit first on bed shortages. Just the right amount of population density but without huge medical infrastructure.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,095
Texas rep that once said gay marriage is like marrying a box turtle:

1594387258623.png
1594387295166.png


Yes children can get it. Yes they can transmit it.
 

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,390
34,272
Texas rep that once said gay marriage is like marrying a box turtle:

View attachment 9636
View attachment 9638


Yes children can get it. Yes they can transmit it.
WTF is wrong with some people
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,095
Do you know the average age of people dying in the states?

It's 80 here. I believe it was 82 in Italy.
Averages hide things. Just like our national average was going down while Texas, Cali, and Florida exploding cases.
We also dont' just care about deaths because on average a hospital overrun will result in a double the mortality...you'll kill as many other non-covid people through lack of healthcare access as covid does.


What you care about is morbidity and mortality risk by age group and healthcare capacity so the rest of us still live in a first world country with healthcare:


These numbers have been adjusted down now that we are hospitalizing less and telling more to stay home...but you can dig this out of the CDC. I'm on the go so can't do it right this second.
1594387519641.png

An easy grab is the deaths though.
Here's June. And again these in flux with case fatalities being adjusted by your age brackets and testing levels. But in general you should think of 50+ as pretty high risk and that leads to a lot of difficulty social decisions.
1594387774869.png

So you have all kinds of problems like whos going to teach the class of the low risk students:

1594387718522.png
 

FINGERS

TMMAC Addict
Nov 14, 2019
16,510
19,576
Averages hide things. Just like our national average was going down while Texas, Cali, and Florida exploding cases.
We also dont' just care about deaths because on average a hospital overrun will result in a double the mortality...you'll kill as many other non-covid people through lack of healthcare access as covid does.


What you care about is morbidity and mortality risk by age group and healthcare capacity so the rest of us still live in a first world country with healthcare:


These numbers have been adjusted down now that we are hospitalizing less and telling more to stay home...but you can dig this out of the CDC. I'm on the go so can't do it right this second.
View attachment 9639

An easy grab is the deaths though.
Here's June. And again these in flux with case fatalities being adjusted by your age brackets and testing levels. But in general you should think of 50+ as pretty high risk and that leads to a lot of difficulty social decisions.
View attachment 9641

So you have all kinds of problems like whos going to teach the class of the low risk students:

View attachment 9640

Interesting stats.

I am getting more and more annoyed each day over here though. They have managed it very badly imo. We had a massive hospital built over here. 4k of beds. Purely for Covid. Not used. They released infected people into care homes. Wiping out tens of thousands of old folk.

And we are learning now that easily over 30k of people will die of treatable cancer because they didn't want to admit them. These are young people with their lives ahead of them. This doesn't include other preventable diseases too.

Its a numbers game and I wouldn't want to be the one making it but ultimately we are choosing some to live and some to die.

I'm not belittling the disease. I met someone I have known for about 10 years yesterday. Haven't seen him since the lock down. I actually asked him had I seen him. I couldn't believe how different he looked. He'd had the virus bad.

But at some point a decision needs to be made that if there is a second wave we can't keep living like this and we need a proper plan.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,095
But at some point a decision needs to be made that if there is a second wave


The US isn't really doing a second wave. We just stamped down the big outbreaks of NYC/NJ but the rest of us never stopped growing. We plateaued in lockdown, failed to roll out mass testing and a unified plan and have essentially squandered the 4-8 week lockdowns that existed everywhere. Locked down, plateaued, and then didn't phase a reopening that would allow response. It was just slowing, not really decreasing outside of NYC/NJ

Of course people in rural south dakota don't need the same interventions as Houston.
But you want your small towns to be out of step in over runs from your large cities so you have places to transfer these overruns. In Texas we are seeing the increase in cases in small rural and large urban at the same time which really screws up the ability to flex with case load. Small town = less cases and more distancing, slower spread by default. But also way less resources for the sick.

1594389012442.png
 
M

member 3289

Guest
Over 11,000 new cases in FL today.

120 deaths for second straight day. Before yesterday we had never seen triple digits.
 

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
8,912
14,237

US occupying army now spreading the disease here.

It's a pretty incredible brand of patriotism we have down here - 'patriotism' via subservience to a foreign, occupying power. It's like being 'anti-gay' yet constantly sucking dicks...which come to think of it, happens all the time to with right-wingers too. Funny that.
 

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,390
34,272

US occupying army now spreading the disease here.

It's a pretty incredible brand of patriotism we have down here - 'patriotism' via subservience to a foreign, occupying power. It's like being 'anti-gay' yet constantly sucking dicks...which come to think of it, happens all the time to with right-wingers too. Funny that.
Man, we fuck Australia raw when we roll through. Such a great country to get drunk and fight in.