Meltzer:
The biggest show of the year, and if we are to believe that early trending figures are accurate, a show that will blow away all previous MMA numbers, UFC 229, takes place on 10/6 at the T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
I want to mention that before the first MSG show we were told about ridiculous trends and biggest ever and two million buys and it didn’t come remotely close. That was Conor McGregor’s last fight, so it’s easy to be skeptical of 2.2 million to 2.6 million projections or Dana White’s publicly throwing around the three million number.
Based on beyond record presales I’ve been told the company would actually be disappointed with a two million buy number at this point.
The one thing is the big ones are the hardest to predict, because so much of this depends on the cultural buzz the day of the show. But if a fight explodes and the day of the show it becomes something everyone wants to see, the sky is the limit. The advance orders being way ahead of any UFC show in history is a reliable metric to predict it will do well.
But the all-time record is 1.6 million for the second McGregor vs. Nate Diaz fight, so the numbers they are talking about are a gigantic jump at a time when most UFC shows are doing under 300,000 and the last one did 130,000. That said, using the same logic of what McGregor and Mayweather’s prior fights did before facing each other, their number also made no sense.
It’s really down to the work McGregor does in the final three days of promotion and he did pull 4.3 million in the U.S. alone and probably close to 6 million worldwide in his Mayweather fight.
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I thought the bold was very interesting