Sports DFS Thoughts & Opinions - and other Gambling tips

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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,413
57,814
Obvious stacks for this coming week...

New England @ New Orleans - o/u of 55
Green Bay @ Atlanta - o/u of 53
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
First thing I look at for DFS is where Vegas has the O/Us at so I can target the high scoring games.

This week there are 2 games that are 50+:
Oakland @ Tennessee
Seattle @ Green Bay

Some games at 48:
Atlanta @ Chicago
Philly @ Redskins
Cardinals @ Lions
Saints @ Vikings

Out of those, I like Oakland, Seattle, Atlanta and Arizona
I'm not going to mess with the MIN defense. PHI/WAS scares me.

Thinking of a few stacks.
Russell Wilson & Paul Richardson
Derek Carr & Amari Cooper
Matt Ryan & Julio Jones & Muhammad Sanu
Carson Palmer & David Johnson & Larry Fitzgerald

Tempted to do a PIT stack against CLE too, but division game on the road...and I'm waiting to get a feel for that Browns team. They do have some talent.

Eagerly looking for Truck Party @Truck Party's insight.
was out of town, I'm back now
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
Obvious stacks for this coming week...

New England @ New Orleans - o/u of 55
Green Bay @ Atlanta - o/u of 53
the trouble is always getting the Pats right, that brilliant bastard Belichick always changes it up. That is a perfect NE set up though, Tom Brady in a dome coming off a bad loss against a bad D. If you're doing a tournament I'd suggest doing some smaller $ entry & try to stack it a few different ways. That's the best way to do the Pats, & baseball
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
It's about time. I'm flying blind here man!

Did OK on bets. DK I won a whole $7. Haha.
I don't go crazy on week one, thank god. but I had a few hundred in cash/heads up & 50 in tourneys & I lost $14. My cash lineup was Wentz/Leveon/D Johnson, Kendall Wright, B Marshall, Fitzgerald, Ertz, Hyde, & the Rams. I barely cashed, thank heavens for Scott Tolzien chucking pick sixes.

I'm about to dig into it today, I'll have some more thoughts later
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,413
57,814
the trouble is always getting the Pats right, that brilliant bastard Belichick always changes it up. That is a perfect NE set up though, Tom Brady in a dome coming off a bad loss against a bad D. If you're doing a tournament I'd suggest doing some smaller $ entry & try to stack it a few different ways. That's the best way to do the Pats, & baseball
I was thinking Brady / Hogan. Hogan was on the field a lot in game 1 but didn't see many touches.

Hogan is $5600 in DK. Helps offset Brady's price tag ($7900) this week.
Might throw in Burkhead ($3900)
 

ShatsBassoon

Throwing bombs & banging moms
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
18,555
33,607
I r
I was thinking Brady / Hogan. Hogan was on the field a lot in game 1 but didn't see many touches.

Hogan is $5600 in DK. Helps offset Brady's price tag ($7900) this week.
Might throw in Burkhead ($3900)
I really want to throw Brady in but just don't know who the he'll is gonna get the tds.
Could be Hogan, Cooks or Gronk.

Why I'm rolling with GB this week Jordy is as consistent as they come.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
I r

I really want to throw Brady in but just don't know who the he'll is gonna get the tds.
Could be Hogan, Cooks or Gronk.

Why I'm rolling with GB this week Jordy is as consistent as they come.
Could also be James White or Burkhead.

Just put Brady in if you think he can go for 5 td's to 5 different people. You don't HAVE to stack a team
 

ShatsBassoon

Throwing bombs & banging moms
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
18,555
33,607
Could also be James White or Burkhead.

Just put Brady in if you think he can go for 5 td's to 5 different people. You don't HAVE to stack a team
Gonna roll with Rodgers he doesn't usually have the rb vulture his tds +he's a tad cheaper
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
I'm pretty technically illiterate, so there's a few teams here twice. Snipping tool used in two parts was the only way I know how to do it. These are what Vegas expects each team to score. First thing that sticks out is the Raiders. Cooper got 13 targets (only 5 catches,1 TD) last week, including many in the end zone, but they might be up big quick on the Jets & letting Lynch run wild. Cooper, Carr & Lynch are all in play


 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,413
57,814
2 games with 14 pt lines this week. That is a shit ton for NFL.

OAK favored by 14 over NYJ
SEA favored by 14 over SF

I'm not touching the OAK/NYJ game, but thinking pretty hard on taking the points and the 49ers.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
2 games with 14 pt lines this week. That is a shit ton for NFL.

OAK favored by 14 over NYJ
SEA favored by 14 over SF

I'm not touching the OAK/NYJ game, but thinking pretty hard on taking the points and the 49ers.
Lynch might be a good play if they're up & just running the clock out, probably wouldn't touch a SEA running back in a cash game up but might take Carson in a tourney lineup.

Pretty sure I'm going to be locking in Ty Montgomery & Melvin Gordon for cash games. Montgomery was out there for 90% of the snaps last week
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,413
57,814
Lynch might be a good play if they're up & just running the clock out, probably wouldn't touch a SEA running back in a cash game up but might take Carson in a tourney lineup.

Pretty sure I'm going to be locking in Ty Montgomery & Melvin Gordon for cash games. Montgomery was out there for 90% of the snaps last week
I was talking about betting against Vegas. I do a bit of that too.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
I fear for the health of a lot of posters here, it seems many fail to put in the proper time for gambling & gambling preparation. They have a big dark hole where their heart should be, imo
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
kinda of thinking of this for cash games for draftkings, it'll probably change but sometimes I stick with it

Rivers stacked with Keenan Allen- Miami is just horrible in the secondary, these guys just faced the best pass D & came out ok & are at home
Ty Mongomery- had 90% of packers snaps last week & too cheap
J Rodgers- too cheap for a starting RB, CHI lost it's best run defender, & they're fresh & 7 point favs
Julio- he's an OK football player
Chris Hogan-was on the field for 90% of snaps last week, 65% in the slot, Saints D doesn't handle anything well but Thielen & Diggs looked great from the slot last week
K Allen
Marty Bennett at TE-just cheap exposure to a shoot out
Marshawn
Raiders

what do you guys think
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,413
57,814
kinda of thinking of this for cash games for draftkings, it'll probably change but sometimes I stick with it

Rivers stacked with Keenan Allen- Miami is just horrible in the secondary, these guys just faced the best pass D & came out ok & are at home
Ty Mongomery- had 90% of packers snaps last week & too cheap
J Rodgers- too cheap for a starting RB, CHI lost it's best run defender, & they're fresh & 7 point favs
Julio- he's an OK football player
Chris Hogan-was on the field for 90% of snaps last week, 65% in the slot, Saints D doesn't handle anything well but Thielen & Diggs looked great from the slot last week
K Allen
Marty Bennett at TE-just cheap exposure to a shoot out
Marshawn
Raiders

what do you guys think
Love the Hogan play. I'm all over him. Probably take either White or Burkhead too.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
Chargers might be my favorite defense, 2 elite corners & a Dline that gets pressure against Jay Cutler, going to figure out a way to get Melvin & the Chargers D in my cash lineup probably, or make another one

really like Agholar this week, had 8 targets in the slot & will face Phillip Gaines, one of pro football focus' worst ranked corners

James White is my fav NE running back, saw 19 more snaps that Gillislee, Saints are the worst team covering RB's out of the backfield in the passing game, he also might fill in for Amendola

really like Diggs & Rudolph for tourneys. Diggs should abuse Joe Haden & Rudolph gets so many targets in the end zone
 
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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,413
57,814
Chargers might be my favorite defense, 2 elite corners & a Dline that gets pressure against Jay Cutler, going to figure out a way to get Melvin & the Chargers D in my cash lineup probably, or make another one

really like Agholar this week, had 8 targets in the slot & will face Phillip Gaines, one of pro football focus' worst ranked corners

James White is my fav NE running back, saw 19 more snaps that Gillislee, Saints are the worst team covering RB's out of the backfield in the passing game, he also might fill in for Amendola

really like Diggs & Rudolph for tourneys. Diggs should abuse Joe Haden & Rudolph gets so many targets in the end zone
Rudolph is awesome. He grew up down the street from me. Good kid.