Sports DFS Thoughts & Opinions - and other Gambling tips

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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,609
57,944
I fell off. Still in the money, but not much.

Totals of
140
138.08
114.48 with Martellus Bennett going tonight.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
I fell off. Still in the money, but not much.

Totals of
140
138.08
114.48 with Martellus Bennett going tonight.
this is why I most just play the smaller tourneys, it would never occur to me to play Chris Thompson. Maybe I'd play Crabtree if I was mass entering a large tourney, but he wouldn't be high on the list
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
this was my main lineup, won all cash, lost only 1 of several head to heads, & finished top 5 in many of the 65 man tourneys. fucking JJ nelson kept me from top two in a couple



 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,609
57,944
this was my main lineup, won all cash, lost only 1 of several head to heads, & finished top 5 in many of the 65 man tourneys. fucking JJ nelson kept me from top two in a couple



Beat mine. Best I did was 140 pts.
I won $12 total so I'm basically on my way to early retirement.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,609
57,944
that's another bottle of bailey's to do it all over again next week!
Sunday sucked. When the late games started I punished myself even further by changing out a bad set of brake pads on my truck.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
Sunday sucked. When the late games started I punished myself even further by changing out a bad set of brake pads on my truck.
that brings back memories, that was my Dad's idea of fun when I was a kid. Would've been a 5 figure day for me if Ryan had tossed a TD to Julio. if there was anything I posted that was helpful let me know & I'll try to do more of that
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,609
57,944
that brings back memories, that was my Dad's idea of fun when I was a kid. Would've been a 5 figure day for me if Ryan had tossed a TD to Julio. if there was anything I posted that was helpful let me know & I'll try to do more of that
Any and all info is helpful. The more eyes on this shit the better, imo.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
Any and all info is helpful. The more eyes on this shit the better, imo.
we're all trying to get to the promised land. AJ is at $8100 next week, new O-coordinator after he got pissed, the ball will be heading his way, which would make him a lock on a lot of teams but not with the Red Rifle chucking it. How are the bengals LB's in coverage? a year or two ago I'd lock in Montgomery, might have to go with Cobb now if he can go
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,609
57,944
we're all trying to get to the promised land. AJ is at $8100 next week, new O-coordinator after he got pissed, the ball will be heading his way, which would make him a lock on a lot of teams but not with the Red Rifle chucking it. How are the bengals LB's in coverage? a year or two ago I'd lock in Montgomery, might have to go with Cobb now if he can go
Considering how awful the offense has been, the defense has done very well. But Green Bay is certainly a tougher test than Baltimore or Houston.

Bengals have a good group of LB's but they do tend to give up passes to TE's and RB's out of the backfield. I wouldn't shy away from playing Montgomery.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
Considering how awful the offense has been, the defense has done very well. But Green Bay is certainly a tougher test than Baltimore or Houston.

Bengals have a good group of LB's but they do tend to give up passes to TE's and RB's out of the backfield. I wouldn't shy away from playing Montgomery.
I was really sad when they let Mauluga go, watching him try to chase RB's & TE's in coverage made me LOL & fattened my bank account these past few years
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,609
57,944
I was really sad when they let Mauluga go, watching him try to chase RB's & TE's in coverage made me LOL & fattened my bank account these past few years
That guy drove me nuts. He actually played better the last couple of years he was there. Prior to that, he was the king of plugging the wrong hole and completely blowing assignments.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
That guy drove me nuts. He actually played better the last couple of years he was there. Prior to that, he was the king of plugging the wrong hole and completely blowing assignments.
& being in hot pursuit 2 yards behind whoever he was trying to cover.

got in the 180's in my millimaker lineup, not even close. I can't imagine winning a tourney that large
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
might have to wrap up baseball for the year, my eyes are starting to gloss over comparing wOBAs & SIERA
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,609
57,944
might have to wrap up baseball for the year, my eyes are starting to gloss over comparing wOBAs & SIERA
I sucked so bad at baseball I quit doing it. I would have been better off throwing darts at rosters to pick my guys.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
I sucked so bad at baseball I quit doing it. I would have been better off throwing darts at rosters to pick my guys.
I make a nice profit on the 50-50's & head to heads, but if you're playing tourneys most nights you will suck. Then, right about the time you're about to say 'F-this, I don't know why I waste money on this" everything hits & sucks you back in. I haven't played a tourney larger than 108 ppl all year though, large field tourneys for any sport are mostly lottery tickets with, at best, a slight edge unless you're putting 50 lineups in. Even if you have the slate scouted right with the 50 LU's you still need luck & to have a lot of things go your way
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,609
57,944
I make a nice profit on the 50-50's & head to heads, but if you're playing tourneys most nights you will suck. Then, right about the time you're about to say 'F-this, I don't know why I waste money on this" everything hits & sucks you back in. I haven't played a tourney larger than 108 ppl all year though, large field tourneys for any sport are mostly lottery tickets with, at best, a slight edge unless you're putting 50 lineups in. Even if you have the slate scouted right with the 50 LU's you still need luck & to have a lot of things go your way
In football, I usually do OK in the 50/50s. Much easier. The large payouts in the big tourneys are hard to resist though. I get in one every week. It's pretty funny when you are in 135,768th place and you are still up $6.
 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
here's my baseball cash lineup for tonight, nothing sexy, no need to stack on a small slate (I hope)


Kershaw giving up 4 runs in the 6th, some silent bats & no Marlins led to a loss. Should've paid down from Kershaw & gotten some more expensive bats, but losses happen. I think all of these were good plays, but good plays don't always lead to wins

here's the implied Vegas point total for each team


 

Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
This one goes in the 'it won, but should've done a lot more category. Pitchers did ok, one-offs all hit double digits, but the top five of AZ were facing Travis Wood. Over the past month Wood had a 9.1% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate, 6.48 SIERA & 11.85 ERA, .360 wOBA to lefties & .392 to rightys. AZ managed 2 runs on 2 Pollack HR's.




my football thought is that this may be the week to break out the Deshone Kizer lineups
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,609
57,944
This one goes in the 'it won, but should've done a lot more category. Pitchers did ok, one-offs all hit double digits, but the top five of AZ were facing Travis Wood. Over the past month Wood had a 9.1% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate, 6.48 SIERA & 11.85 ERA, .360 wOBA to lefties & .392 to rightys. AZ managed 2 runs on 2 Pollack HR's.




my football thought is that this may be the week to break out the Deshone Kizer lineups
I get so mad when my position players go 0-5 and net me zero. I always pull up the box score. "Did that fuck even play?"