Sports DFS Thoughts & Opinions - and other Gambling tips

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Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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My best today was only 144.54, but I still have Seattle's D to go. I should finish in the green with that one.
I have no idea how large field GPP players ever finish in the green, I've never even sniffed a large field GPP win in NFL, finished top ten a few times but was never in contention for a win
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
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I have no idea how large field GPP players ever finish in the green, I've never even sniffed a large field GPP win in NFL, finished top ten a few times but was never in contention for a win
I'm happy with top 1000. Haha.
 

Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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anybody got any good book recommendations? going to have a lot of free time til NBA season kicks off
 

Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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Just realized there's NBA preseason today to curb my baseball withdrawal. let me know if you want my cash lineup if you want to do a double up. Will probably have at least 5 guys from the DEN/LAL game, these two teams play insanely fast & aren't good defensively, in NBA DFS possessions = $ and there'll be a lot of them in this game. Mudiay & Murray are battling to be starting PG for the nuggets, coach said he'll give them both starts with the first team in the preseason, just need to find out who's starting tonight

there's a lot of news left to come, coaches will indicate who will get a lot of run & who won't, etc. This is what I'd go with right now though

 
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Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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cash/head to head lineup for tonight. Bos isn't playing starters past halftime, Orlando starters limited as well as most other teams. stacked one game, this is both teams' 2nd game, both fast paced & suck at D, won't be surprised if their combined total is 30 points higher than any other game



good intro to NBA DFS basics, this is for cash games but I don't think tourneys are all that different. occasionally there'll be some random guy go off but most of the time it boils down to these things. also explains why it's the most fun to watch when you have lineups in, constant scoring Daily Fantasy NBA Cash Game Strategy
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,416
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cash/head to head lineup for tonight. Bos isn't playing starters past halftime, Orlando starters limited as well as most other teams. stacked one game, this is both teams' 2nd game, both fast paced & suck at D, won't be surprised if their combined total is 30 points higher than any other game



good intro to NBA DFS basics, this is for cash games but I don't think tourneys are all that different. occasionally there'll be some random guy go off but most of the time it boils down to these things. also explains why it's the most fun to watch when you have lineups in, constant scoring Daily Fantasy NBA Cash Game Strategy
If I start watching NBA religiously my wife will kill me. LMAO.

But I'm interested in your strategies. Because I'm a degenerate.
 

Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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If I start watching NBA religiously my wife will kill me. LMAO.

But I'm interested in your strategies. Because I'm a degenerate.
I've got near a grand riding on basically one preseason game, I share your degeneracy. Anything you want to know, just ask, outside of giving you the algorithm to my NBA model I'll tell you anything I'm thinking
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
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I've got near a grand riding on basically one preseason game, I share your degeneracy. Anything you want to know, just ask, outside of giving you the algorithm to my NBA model I'll tell you anything I'm thinking
Can I have the algorithm to your NBA model?
 

Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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Can I have the algorithm to your NBA model?
to be honest, I wouldn't even be able to give it to you if I wanted to. my brother is a computer programmer & my part in building the model was telling him how to weigh the advanced stats, then telling him what needed changed b/c I was wrong, til we got it to where it reflected reality. it spits out projections & I overrule some things due to how well teams defend certain offensive strategies that are hard to get the model to account for & understanding coaches' strategies in regards to how they handle rotations. I can surf the web, check email, & that's about it when it comes to technology for me
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,416
57,815
to be honest, I wouldn't even be able to give it to you if I wanted to. my brother is a computer programmer & my part in building the model was telling him how to weigh the advanced states, then telling him what needed changed b/c I was wrong, til we got it to where it reflected reality. it spits out projections & I overrule some things due to how well teams defend certain offensive strategies that are hard to get the model to account for & understanding coaches' strategies in regards to how they handle rotations. I can surf the web, check email, & that's about it when it comes to technology for me
Whatever dude. If you don't want to give it to me just say so. ;)

I don't do any of that shit. I go on gut. And usually come up empty. Haha.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,416
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anybody got any good book recommendations? going to have a lot of free time til NBA season kicks off
I just got done reading Ty Cobb's Busting Em. It was poorly written (Cobb - or whoever wrote it for him - is no Hemmingway) but interesting to see his take on the game back then.

It was published in 1914
 
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Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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Whatever dude. If you don't want to give it to me just say so. ;)

I don't do any of that shit. I go on gut. And usually come up empty. Haha.
you'd be shocked how well that works out if you have access to the proper stats & can internalize them & use probabilistic thinking

interesting read. makes a ton of sense.
he should've added caveats, there are certain times where a bench player moving to the starting lineup is a lock, but there are many times a year a teams' 2nd best bench player will see greatly increased usage against bad 2nd team defenses coming off the bench when he's now the best from the bench & he's the real lock you should have. I could quibble with a few other things but he's spot on for the most part
 

Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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I just got done reading Ty Cobb's Busting Em. It was poorly written (Cobb - or whoever wrote it for him - is no Hemmingway) but interesting to see his take on the game back then.

It was published in 1914
thanks, I've been on a history & historical fiction kick but this sounds good
 

Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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won a little last night, Ball's ankle injury & murray/ingram having bad shooting nights kept it from being a big night. will be back at it again today, but none of these teams have played a preseason game so it'll be a guessing game & we'll have to take coaches at their word when they say how many mins each guy will get
 

Truck Party

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going to be a good night

was a winning night, but 2nd straight night something like this kept it from being bigger

Steven Adams left Tuesday's game vs. the Rockets holding his lower back.

He wasn't able to take his free throws, so his night will finish with four points, four rebounds, one assist and one block in 19 minutes. Adams has battled lower back issues many times in the past few seasons, and Royce Young of ESPN is speculating that he could miss some time in the preseason. We should have another update by Wednesday. Dakari Johnson will get a look with Adams out.


this might be the week to lock in Zeke & Bell
 

Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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people are so bad at nba, this is what I went with tonight & there are 3 guys I think should be 100% owned & locked in higher stakes cash games & tourneys already going



 
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Truck Party

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Mar 16, 2017
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not feeling too good about this week

QB- Rodgers, Eli, Palmer, Brissett
RB- Bell, Zeke, Gurley, Hyde, Melvin, & (gulp) Frank Gore- Melvin is as cheap as he'll be all year
WR- Jordy, Fitz, Dez, Hilton, Landry, Marshall, Aldrick Robinson- love Dez & Hilton
TE- Ertz, Engram, ASJ- really like ASJ
D/ST- Steelers, Ravens, Eagles

rostering Frank Gore or Brandon Marshall isn't for the squeamish, & I hope I don't have to throw them in there to save salary. I'll go back to Devonte Parker in a lineup or two, he's got a major speed advantage over the TEN secondary
 
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ShatsBassoon

Throwing bombs & banging moms
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Jan 14, 2015
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not feeling too good about this week

QB- Rodgers, Eli, Palmer, Brissett
RB- Bell, Zeke, Gurley, Hyde, Melvin, & (gulp) Frank Gore- Melvin is as cheap as he'll be all year
WR- Jordy, Fitz, Dez, Hilton, Landry, Marshall, Aldrick Robinson- love Dez & Hilton
TE- Ertz, Engram, ASJ- really like ASJ
D/ST- Steelers, Ravens, Eagles

rostering Frank Gore or Brandon Marshall isn't for the squeamish, & I hope I don't have to throw them in there to save salary. I'll go back to Devonte Parker in a lineup or two, he's got a major speed advantage over the TEN secondary

I managed a fanduel lineup with

A.Rodgers
L.Bell, Duke Johnson(he is the browns offense)
J.Nelson
T.Hilton
J.Brown (Jaron not John)
H.Henry (giants are last in league against TE)
Elliot (ridiculous kicker this year)
Lions (#1 dst in the league and way undervalued)

I did have D.Parker in instead of Hilton which allowed me to afford Ertz but cardinals are pretty good against TE and Hilton should feast against SF
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
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Building lineups now. 1st go...



Thinking about a Cowboys stack against the Packers. Dare I play Dak?

Edit : Just read that John Brown is playing. Might need to tweak Jaron out for someone else...
 
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Truck Party

TMMAC Addict
Mar 16, 2017
5,711
6,851
Building lineups now. 1st go...



Thinking about a Cowboys stack against the Packers. Dare I play Dak?

Edit : Just read that John Brown is playing. Might need to tweak Jaron out for someone else...
Yes but I'm the wrong guy to ask, I've got 2 lineups & I've got Eli Manning in one & Brissett in the other, & strongly considering Hoyer if I do a third