Talking about putting my feet to the fire. Hah.
I'd love to have Scotland in the EU, but when Biden is confirmed I can see Boris giving in on some things and probably keep Scotland around.
I am not an expert on politics in every member state. But they are trying to throw out a Fidesz-member (Orban's party) of the decisive parliamentary group in the European Parliament, and are putting pressure up on Poland and Hungary to stop destroying their democracy. In turn this leads to them trying to torpedo everything that goes in that direction, naturally.
I think it's a stalemate for now.
In Poland it seems the PiS might have trouble holding power in the future though.
We will see what happens with France and us, it's an interesting time. I can't make any legitimate predictions about France, but we will be stable and not change too much with or without Merkel. I am not completely sold she will say goodbye yet.
But if Corona will be under control by the end of the year, I think it's likely she will.
As for who will be our chancellor then, it's not even clear yet who will run the CDU. The one that will though, will most likely be the candidate to become next chancellor by the Union. There are three candidates, Merz, Laschet and Röttgen.
I hate Merz with a passion, and I believe the CDU underestimates how disliked he would be. He basically is a corporate crony that lost vs Merkel and AKK and still has that chip on his shoulder. You can see it on him everytime, he only wants to have that triumph and is all ego. But he has a lot of support in his own party, so he is kinda the favorite at this point.
Laschet is kinda a cross between an annoying head teacher and a weasel. I'm not saying he is without competence or demands no respect, but you never know with him, I somehow can't see him getting there. He has a chance tho.
Third, Röttgen, would be my choice for the CDU if I had a pick. He is far from perfect and has the occasional gaff in him, but is not afraid to make himself unpopular over a decision even in his own party. Which isn't a bad trait, but this also makes him the least favorite for now.
He was fired by Merkel in 2012 from the cabinet.
Still though, Merkel herself or the other boss of the Union, Söder might become candidate for chancellor as well.
The SPD will throw Scholz into the ring, this is already clear. Scholz is okayisch. He is the current financial minister and stands for expertise, albeit he is a bit dull. But the chances of the SPD to win the election are slim anyway.
The green party is on full assault mode though. They will probably add some % to their tally, and are going for the big throw, already trying to win voters left, right and middle by expanding their positions to basically anything. Heh.
They have a tandem at the top with Habeck and Baerbock. He seems like a sound bite machine (with little behind it?), and she I don't quite know yet.
The AfD is losing support and has intraparty calamities. Some prominent members where thrown out for not disclosing their Nazi past for example, which enraged their supporters in the party, and now they are openly fighting. It's quite possible they will split up soon, or we will see a mass exodus.
It would seem that Corona could have been a chance for em to gain support, but they didn't quite know how to react. At first they wanted the harshest Lockdowns, alienating some supporters, now they are more on the other side.
The FDP under Lindner is trying, but meh. I would be surprised if they reach double digits. Their "open up everything" - course might gain some support for now. But who knows in a couple months.
It is still a while away though, so we will see.