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kneeblock

Drapetomaniac
Apr 18, 2015
12,435
23,026
There aren't enough people from each member state so let's just take the whole thing and put it here. So long Britain! School us Q @Qat

What's the news in Europa? Will someone finally Franz Ferdinand Orban? Who will replace Merkel? Will the reactionaries or commies displace the boring Macaroons in France? Can you steal Scotland?
 

Qat

QoQ
Nov 3, 2015
16,385
22,624
Talking about putting my feet to the fire. Hah.

I'd love to have Scotland in the EU, but when Biden is confirmed I can see Boris giving in on some things and probably keep Scotland around.

I am not an expert on politics in every member state. But they are trying to throw out a Fidesz-member (Orban's party) of the decisive parliamentary group in the European Parliament, and are putting pressure up on Poland and Hungary to stop destroying their democracy. In turn this leads to them trying to torpedo everything that goes in that direction, naturally.
I think it's a stalemate for now.
In Poland it seems the PiS might have trouble holding power in the future though.

We will see what happens with France and us, it's an interesting time. I can't make any legitimate predictions about France, but we will be stable and not change too much with or without Merkel. I am not completely sold she will say goodbye yet.
But if Corona will be under control by the end of the year, I think it's likely she will.

As for who will be our chancellor then, it's not even clear yet who will run the CDU. The one that will though, will most likely be the candidate to become next chancellor by the Union. There are three candidates, Merz, Laschet and Röttgen.

I hate Merz with a passion, and I believe the CDU underestimates how disliked he would be. He basically is a corporate crony that lost vs Merkel and AKK and still has that chip on his shoulder. You can see it on him everytime, he only wants to have that triumph and is all ego. But he has a lot of support in his own party, so he is kinda the favorite at this point.

Laschet is kinda a cross between an annoying head teacher and a weasel. I'm not saying he is without competence or demands no respect, but you never know with him, I somehow can't see him getting there. He has a chance tho.

Third, Röttgen, would be my choice for the CDU if I had a pick. He is far from perfect and has the occasional gaff in him, but is not afraid to make himself unpopular over a decision even in his own party. Which isn't a bad trait, but this also makes him the least favorite for now.
He was fired by Merkel in 2012 from the cabinet.

Still though, Merkel herself or the other boss of the Union, Söder might become candidate for chancellor as well.

The SPD will throw Scholz into the ring, this is already clear. Scholz is okayisch. He is the current financial minister and stands for expertise, albeit he is a bit dull. But the chances of the SPD to win the election are slim anyway.

The green party is on full assault mode though. They will probably add some % to their tally, and are going for the big throw, already trying to win voters left, right and middle by expanding their positions to basically anything. Heh.
They have a tandem at the top with Habeck and Baerbock. He seems like a sound bite machine (with little behind it?), and she I don't quite know yet.

The AfD is losing support and has intraparty calamities. Some prominent members where thrown out for not disclosing their Nazi past for example, which enraged their supporters in the party, and now they are openly fighting. It's quite possible they will split up soon, or we will see a mass exodus.
It would seem that Corona could have been a chance for em to gain support, but they didn't quite know how to react. At first they wanted the harshest Lockdowns, alienating some supporters, now they are more on the other side.

The FDP under Lindner is trying, but meh. I would be surprised if they reach double digits. Their "open up everything" - course might gain some support for now. But who knows in a couple months.

It is still a while away though, so we will see.
 

kneeblock

Drapetomaniac
Apr 18, 2015
12,435
23,026
Talking about putting my feet to the fire. Hah.

I'd love to have Scotland in the EU, but when Biden is confirmed I can see Boris giving in on some things and probably keep Scotland around.

I am not an expert on politics in every member state. But they are trying to throw out a Fidesz-member (Orban's party) of the decisive parliamentary group in the European Parliament, and are putting pressure up on Poland and Hungary to stop destroying their democracy. In turn this leads to them trying to torpedo everything that goes in that direction, naturally.
I think it's a stalemate for now.
In Poland it seems the PiS might have trouble holding power in the future though.

We will see what happens with France and us, it's an interesting time. I can't make any legitimate predictions about France, but we will be stable and not change too much with or without Merkel. I am not completely sold she will say goodbye yet.
But if Corona will be under control by the end of the year, I think it's likely she will.

As for who will be our chancellor then, it's not even clear yet who will run the CDU. The one that will though, will most likely be the candidate to become next chancellor by the Union. There are three candidates, Merz, Laschet and Röttgen.

I hate Merz with a passion, and I believe the CDU underestimates how disliked he would be. He basically is a corporate crony that lost vs Merkel and AKK and still has that chip on his shoulder. You can see it on him everytime, he only wants to have that triumph and is all ego. But he has a lot of support in his own party, so he is kinda the favorite at this point.

Laschet is kinda a cross between an annoying head teacher and a weasel. I'm not saying he is without competence or demands no respect, but you never know with him, I somehow can't see him getting there. He has a chance tho.

Third, Röttgen, would be my choice for the CDU if I had a pick. He is far from perfect and has the occasional gaff in him, but is not afraid to make himself unpopular over a decision even in his own party. Which isn't a bad trait, but this also makes him the least favorite for now.
He was fired by Merkel in 2012 from the cabinet.

Still though, Merkel herself or the other boss of the Union, Söder might become candidate for chancellor as well.

The SPD will throw Scholz into the ring, this is already clear. Scholz is okayisch. He is the current financial minister and stands for expertise, albeit he is a bit dull. But the chances of the SPD to win the election are slim anyway.

The green party is on full assault mode though. They will probably add some % to their tally, and are going for the big throw, already trying to win voters left, right and middle by expanding their positions to basically anything. Heh.
They have a tandem at the top with Habeck and Baerbock. He seems like a sound bite machine (with little behind it?), and she I don't quite know yet.

The AfD is losing support and has intraparty calamities. Some prominent members where thrown out for not disclosing their Nazi past for example, which enraged their supporters in the party, and now they are openly fighting. It's quite possible they will split up soon, or we will see a mass exodus.
It would seem that Corona could have been a chance for em to gain support, but they didn't quite know how to react. At first they wanted the harshest Lockdowns, alienating some supporters, now they are more on the other side.

The FDP under Lindner is trying, but meh. I would be surprised if they reach double digits. Their "open up everything" - course might gain some support for now. But who knows in a couple months.

It is still a while away though, so we will see.
Thanks for this thorough post. I'm definitely interested in the impending changes in Alemania due to the fact that it basically runs so much of the financial policies coming through Europe these days. CDU has remained in a strong position for so long that there seems to be a kind of romance around it internationally even though from what I read it's going through ups and downs locally. The SPD seems to lack a cogent platform from what I can see, but I presume they're the only serious threat to CDU continued dominance in the 2020s. Would that be correct? Would the Greens be able to pick up enough support to become a new #2 in the years to come or is their coalition fragile enough that it could combust?

So long as AfD goes down in flames, I'll be happy. It would be nice if Orban, Duda, Le Pen and all their ilk were washed into the sea, but things haven't been looking promising this past year or two.
 

Qat

QoQ
Nov 3, 2015
16,385
22,624
Thanks for this thorough post. I'm definitely interested in the impending changes in Alemania due to the fact that it basically runs so much of the financial policies coming through Europe these days. CDU has remained in a strong position for so long that there seems to be a kind of romance around it internationally even though from what I read it's going through ups and downs locally. The SPD seems to lack a cogent platform from what I can see, but I presume they're the only serious threat to CDU continued dominance in the 2020s. Would that be correct? Would the Greens be able to pick up enough support to become a new #2 in the years to come or is their coalition fragile enough that it could combust?

So long as AfD goes down in flames, I'll be happy. It would be nice if Orban, Duda, Le Pen and all their ilk were washed into the sea, but things haven't been looking promising this past year or two.
A reigning coalition is often due to lose votes, but this time around, it might not be the case, as most people think we are steering okay under these difficult circumstances.

It really depends on who the CDU will have running I think. They might lose many voters to the greens and some to the FDP, or then again, maybe not.

The SPD will probably stay around 20%, albeit Scholz still has a couple chances to up his profile, and slowly the party is shedding its legacy of betraying their own values with the agenda 2010.
Schröder really did a number on them with that one.
But in general the public sees little difference between both of these parties apart from a couple issues. But that is a stain on the SPD moreso than the CDU.

And yeah the greens are due for a higher run, they are moving away from the left more to the center. It might not be second place yet, but third has to be possible. Moving from the left will not lose them a lot of voters since there are no alternatives for them. Many people refuse to vote the left party (Die Linke) for its past, and they won't go to the SPD in droves either.
If the CDU runs the wrong candidate, they might get very far. Not for nothing does Söder and the CSU try to heavily incorporate green topics into their own party, and 10 years ago the CSU would not touch those with a turnpole.
And no I don't see the greens combusting. They have grown up and their time might come soon.

In my former post I forgot Die Linke, it's hard to say where they will land, could be anything from 5% to 13% and it relies heavily on left-leaning voters supporting Scholz or not. We will see.

FDP is still a wild-card, they might take some voters from the CDU, and at the same time lose voters to them or the greens.

The campaigns have not started yet. We do not have such long-lasting extravaganzas like you do.
 

jason73

Yuri Bezmenov was right
First 100
Jan 15, 2015
72,781
134,158