Society European Union politics

Welcome to our Community
Wanting to join the rest of our members? Feel free to Sign Up today.
Sign up
Sheepdog

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
8,912
14,237
Qat said:
Soo since this thread started with what comes after Merkel, seeing as I voted today (by mail) it's time to have a look again.

I was mostly on point but I didn't expect the CDU/CSU to actually pick Laschet instead of Söder to run for them. As it seems right now, that was a mistake for em.

I said of Laschet before that he is like a mix between a weasel and a head teacher. People notice this. You want somebody like that working in the background at most, but being the leader?
He also had a big gaffe when we had that horrible flooding a couple months ago. Our president gave his condolences in a speech, and Laschet was seen in the background joking and laughing. You don't do that when it's about ~130 dead, ~750 injured, and a lot of others that just lost everything they own.

And of course, in every debate Laschet is the guy from the party that held power for the last 16 years. So how is he going to stand there and talk about reforming stuff or anything else but continuation? Its not gonna work and people ain't buying it.
As I said I expected em to pick Söder, who would not have had that problem. I am still surprised they didn't.
Needless to say, the CDU lost a lot of % in the polls.

The green party decided to let Baerbock run. She seems a solid politician for what it's worth, and rather stands for realpolitik instead of extreme green stuff.
They are doing well in the polls and even had the lead for a small time, but are trending downward again.

The SPD with Scholz seem to get stronger by day. Character-wise he is closest to Merkel, and his campaign has been simply solid and calm. But calm in a positive way for him. While Laschet flings around and Baerbock can rightly be called very inexperienced, Scholz just stands there like an unphased rock.
The SPD stands for something in between the green party and the CDU right now, if you don't wanna go into details.
I think I wrote before that being not that far from the CDU is a stain for the SPD, seeing as Laschet takes the CDU down right now it turns out it's not a stain anymore. They are leading the polls currently and its very possible Scholz will be the new chancellor leading a coalition.

The FDP are surging again due to some of the fleeing CDU voters running to them, so it's likely they will play a role in a coalition.
The left party (Linke) will only play a role if SPD and green party can get a majority with em.
The AfD will have about 10-13% but not play a role in the government.

A chart for reference:
View attachment 45323

See how the CDU was at 40% a year ago, and at about 20% now.
But it's quite volatile in the polls so it's kinda exciting to actually see what the results will be.
Click to expand...
Laschet sounds like a smelly frog name. That alone should be enough to rule him out as leader of KrautLand.
 
Sheepdog

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
8,912
14,237
Qat said:
Belgian I believe.
Statement still has merit.
Click to expand...
Our previous finance minister was Belgian. As in not Belgian heritage, but Belgian. It was very strange having the stereotype of a smarmy European, right-wing technocrat 2nd in command of Bogan Country. But it worked well - put a serious face on a party full of Trumpist nutbags so it could get down to its core business of fucking the working class.

But he was German-Belgian. We may have also accepted Dutch-Belgian, but bogans would have drawn the line at Frog-Belgian.
 
kneeblock

kneeblock

Drapetomaniac
Apr 18, 2015
12,435
23,026
Q @Qat the Berlin Expropriation referendum passed! Incredible precedent!!!

Also, looks like SPD and Greens will be running things for the foreseeable. What's the vibe on the ground?
 
Q

Qat

QoQ
Nov 3, 2015
16,385
22,624
kneeblock said:
Q @Qat the Berlin Expropriation referendum passed! Incredible precedent!!!
Click to expand...
Indeed an incredible precedent!
It's not final yet since they are not done counting, but it seems pretty clear.

Now, I love that it passed since its a clear message to everyone, however no direct action is bound to it, it's just a mandate for the senate to concern themselves with it. But they will and the political will might be there. (Berlin already bought about 30k or so apartments from the big guns lately)

Expropriation though.. it's unclear whether our constitution even allows such a thing. Unclear often means it does not, and it would have to be changed first. Berlin alone can't do that obviously.

kneeblock said:
Also, looks like SPD and Greens will be running things for the foreseeable. What's the vibe on the ground?
Click to expand...
Hold your horses. SPD being the strongest party doesn't mean shit yet.
They still have to assemble a stable coalition. SPD and greens alone can't do it, they need one more partner, and this is where it becomes tricky.

Ideally they would take the left party, but they had a very weak result and thus this is not possible, they'd lack 3 seats.
They can do it with the FDP, but the FDP has very different views, they are further right than the CDU. They would try to fleece em for a coalition, and their boss, Lindner is an egomanical self-promoter. It might simply not be possible to reach an agreement. And even if, the FDP will insist on their liberal economic policies.

The other option is CDU, FDP and greens. They could form a coalition and leave the SPD out, making Laschet chancellor after all. Is it likely? It might not seem so right now, but if other negotiations stall, it is a real possibility.

And then there is the CDU & SPD coalition. Nobody wants it, both parties do not want it, but it's possible.

Overall the country moved center-left, but a stable administration cannot be formed without either the FDP or CDU. It will take some negotiations to get this one going.

If all that fails the other option is a minority government. Nobody wants that during a crisis no doubt. I know it happens frequently in Scandinavia or Canada, but not here.
 
Wintermute

Wintermute

Putin is gay
Apr 24, 2015
5,816
9,202
kneeblock said:
Q @Qat the Berlin Expropriation referendum passed! Incredible precedent!!!

Also, looks like SPD and Greens will be running things for the foreseeable. What's the vibe on the ground?
Click to expand...
This is significant news after the nationalist wave of the mid '10s.

Apparently there was a decent generational split.
From the BBC:
"The traditional parties of the centre left and centre right came out ahead overall, but if you look at the age data, an interesting trend emerges. Voters under 30 preferred the Greens on the left (22%) and the libertarian FDP (20%) on the right by a wide margin, according to this exit poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. In contrast, the over-60s voted for the centre left (35%) and centre right (34%). Only 9% went for the Greens and 8% for the FDP."​
 
Q

Qat

QoQ
Nov 3, 2015
16,385
22,624
Wintermute said:
This is significant news after the nationalist wave of the mid '10s.

Apparently there was a decent generational split.
From the BBC:
"The traditional parties of the centre left and centre right came out ahead overall, but if you look at the age data, an interesting trend emerges. Voters under 30 preferred the Greens on the left (22%) and the libertarian FDP (20%) on the right by a wide margin, according to this exit poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. In contrast, the over-60s voted for the centre left (35%) and centre right (34%). Only 9% went for the Greens and 8% for the FDP."​
Click to expand...
The FDP is liberal, not libertarian. BBC, meh.

 
Q

Qat

QoQ
Nov 3, 2015
16,385
22,624
Wintermute said:
Economic liberal (very close to Reagan repubicans in the US). Center-right socially.
Click to expand...
Economics are their main issue tho by far.

I mean I know the words are kinda used differently in other parts of the world, still you can't just put such a label as libertarian on the party because you are too lazy to make a distinction, or you shouldn't as a good journalist.

"Libertarianer" are actually more left here and go hand in hand with anarchists.

You can't just translate German liberal to English libertarian, BBC. That's all I'm saying.
 
Wintermute

Wintermute

Putin is gay
Apr 24, 2015
5,816
9,202
Qat said:
Economics are their main issue tho by far.

I mean I know the words are kinda used differently in other parts of the world, still you can't just put such a label as libertarian on the party because you are too lazy to make a distinction, or you shouldn't as a good journalist.

"Libertarianer" are actually more left here and go hand in hand with anarchists.

You can't just translate German liberal to English libertarian, BBC.
Click to expand...
I figured, thank for the clarification. In most of the world "liberal" refers to free market economic positions, not social issues.
 
Zeph

Zeph

TMMAC Addict
Jan 22, 2015
24,355
32,126
Qat said:
Economics are their main issue tho by far.

I mean I know the words are kinda used differently in other parts of the world, still you can't just put such a label as libertarian on the party because you are too lazy to make a distinction, or you shouldn't as a good journalist.

"Libertarianer" are actually more left here and go hand in hand with anarchists.

You can't just translate German liberal to English libertarian, BBC. That's all I'm saying.
Click to expand...
Libertarian was initially a left distinction. It has since been co-opted by the right direction n the U.S. and UK such that if someone mentions it they probably don't know it's roots in leftist thought.
 
M

member 1013

Guest
Zeph said:
Libertarian was initially a left distinction. It has since been co-opted by the right direction n the U.S. and UK such that if someone mentions it they probably don't know it's roots in leftist thought.
Click to expand...
All the christian fundies I know say they are libertarian. I laaaaffff
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,549
56,270
Zeph said:
Libertarian was initially a left distinction. It has since been co-opted by the right direction n the U.S. and UK such that if someone mentions it they probably don't know it's roots in leftist thought.
Click to expand...
I've never heard a prominent Libertarian identify as being "on the right". Corporate media like to label them that way though as "on the right" is just a stone's throw away from full blown Nazi.
 
Q

Qat

QoQ
Nov 3, 2015
16,385
22,624
Zeph said:
Libertarian was initially a left distinction. It has since been co-opted by the right direction n the U.S. and UK such that if someone mentions it they probably don't know it's roots in leftist thought.
Click to expand...
We kept the original meanings coz why the fuck not?
 
Zeph

Zeph

TMMAC Addict
Jan 22, 2015
24,355
32,126
JakePaulsBeard said:
I've never heard a prominent Libertarian identify as being "on the right". Corporate media like to label them that way though as "on the right" is just a stone's throw away from full blown Nazi.
Click to expand...
They may not identify as on the right, but their beliefs are on the right.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom