Society European Union politics

[Qat]

scientist merkel bout to shutdown Germany even harder

no mulled wine stands for y'all

Debate over mulled wine heats up in Germany amid pandemic lockdown

With most Christmas markets closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, open-air mulled wine stands have popped up across Germany as bars and restaurant owners try to bring festive cheer and earn some income as the nation's "lockdown light" grinds on.

www.reuters.com

Merkel can't do shit but ask, the states decide these things, and oftentimes leave details to counties.

Honestly though the development shows we should have had a hard lockdown in October or at least November to enjoy a good xmas and new years.

And mullet wine is gross anyway.

 

[kneeblock]

Q @Qat who do you expect to come out on top of CDU?

 

[jason73]

who gets to be fuhrer after merkel?

 

[Qat]

Q @Qat who do you expect to come out on top of CDU?

Laschet made it.

Merz had the most votes at first, but not enough for an absolute majority, so they went to a head to head vote.
There Laschet pulled through comfortably. So yeah Merz had the most supporters, but also the most haters.

This is good for the Union now, Laschet and Söder will be able to work together and support whoever of the two becomes candidate. Big ego Merz will not be a hindrance.

who gets to be fuhrer after merkel?

Right now I'd say Söder, but there are a lot of moving pieces.

I expect the green party and the union to be in the coalition at least.

 

[regular john]

I don't know much about EU politics as a whole but I've been reading about effects of the Great Recession in two countries and was fascinated.

The first is more well known, Greece. They had the biggest economic crisis of a developed country in history with more than 1 million people losing their jobs (~20% of the workforce). Banks from all Europe, mostly German, loaned money like crazy to the Greeks (public and private) during the construction and tourism boom of the early 00's. The government deregulated financial activity and accumulated a huge debt, which was considered stable until the 2008 crisis. When the crisis hit, private investors withdrawn their monies and the public debt became a snowball amounting to ~150% of GDP.

Germany and the European Central Bank bullied Greece into taking financial "help" from international agencies and the Greek government accepted the intervention of the Troika, which is a triparty entity responsible for handling economical crises in the EU. The European Central Bank, IMF and other "authorities" presented their "research" showcasing that gigantic spending cuts in health, education, infrastructure, welfare and other areas (minus police) would lead to recovery and that was why Greece had to comply.

In short, ALL of their predicions turned out to be completely wrong. Greece pays more and more and the debt grows more and more. Public health deteriorated with mass suicides, an HIV epidemics, housing crisis, spike in homicide and child mortality rates. Less than 5% of the billions loaned by international agencies made it to the Greek national budget. The rest was transferred back (with interest) to the German, French, and other European banks. i.e. Greek people paid the full price of the crisis while their civil rights were stolen and their tax money was redistributed to the same banks that precipitated the crisis in the first place. Of course, a radical national-populist party emerged in the political scene in the meantime.

 

[NotBanjaxo]

I don't know much about EU politics as a whole but I've been reading about effects of the Great Recession in two countries and was fascinated.

The first is more well known, Greece. They had the biggest economic crisis of a developed country in history with more than 1 million people losing their jobs (~20% of the workforce). Banks from all Europe, mostly German, loaned money like crazy to the Greeks (public and private) during the construction and tourism boom of the early 00's. The government deregulated financial activity and accumulated a huge debt, which was considered stable until the 2008 crisis. When the crisis hit, private investors withdrawn their monies and the public debt became a snowball amounting to ~150% of GDP.

Germany and the European Central Bank bullied Greece into taking financial "help" from international agencies and the Greek government accepted the intervention of the Troika, which is a triparty entity responsible for handling economical crises in the EU. The European Central Bank, IMF and other "authorities" presented their "research" showcasing that gigantic spending cuts in health, education, infrastructure, welfare and other areas (minus police) would lead to recovery and that was why Greece had to comply.

In short, ALL of their predicions turned out to be completely wrong. Greece pays more and more and the debt grows more and more. Public health deteriorated with mass suicides, an HIV epidemics, housing crisis, spike in homicide and child mortality rates. Less than 5% of the billions loaned by international agencies made it to the Greek national budget. The rest was transferred back (with interest) to the German, French, and other European banks. i.e. Greek people paid the full price of the crisis while their civil rights were stolen and their tax money was redistributed to the same banks that precipitated the crisis in the first place. Of course, a radical national-populist party emerged in the political scene in the meantime.

It is most often the case that when a country's economy tanks, their currency will be worth a lot less. That means people and businesses from other countries can buy their exports really cheap, meaning an upturn in sales abroad, which then helps drag their economy back up again.

Unfortunately for Greece they signed up for the EU, and more importantly to have the Euro as their currency. That prevents the above scenario from happening.

It's a shitty situation for the Greeks.

 

[regular john]

It is most often the case that when a country's economy tanks, their currency will be worth a lot less. That means people and businesses from other countries can buy their exports really cheap, meaning an upturn in sales abroad, which then helps drag their economy back up again.

Unfortunately for Greece they signed up for the EU, and more importantly to have the Euro as their currency. That prevents the above scenario from happening.

It's a shitty situation for the Greeks.

yeah the common currency in the EU is not cool but that alone doesn't explain the problem with Greece. the IMF and European Central Bank are applying the political economy of blame there. Plain economic vengeance against a country for failing to avoid a crisis that was unavoidable.

 

[regular john]

But the case of Iceland is even more interesting. Everybody has heard of a "financial bubble" but what they did in Iceland is worthy of a side plot in a James Bond movie.

Iceland is a country whose population is smaller than that of my shitty hometown (roughly 340k inhabitants). The ruling elite is composed by a small group of families with direct ties to feudalism. Since the 1970's an emergent class of neoliberal enthusiasts joined the elite and took over political power. They privatized all national banks and literally named themselves and their friends owners and managers of these banks as well as the Central Bank. Then they started buying foreign assets with their shares as collateral as well as buying each other shares with their own shares as collateral. Each of these banks joined the list of the world’s biggest 300 banks and Iceland was considered a financial paradise in the early 00's.

When the 2008 crisis hit, international investors withdrew their money and assets worth 900% of the national GDP flew away within a week. The national currency fell over half of its value to the euro; the stock market fell by 98%; Remarkably, the Icelandic "bankers" (they had no experience in finance) launched a high interest earning online platform (IceSave) in the midst of the collapse and hundreds of europeans (mostly UKers and Dutch) invested their money there;

The bankers denied any problem until the last minute but by 2008/2009 the IMF stationed a team full time in the national capital and offered the usual deal - similar to Greece: We'll "save" you if you cut spending in education, health, welfare, and everything else and spend all your money on interest payment to the banking system (specially UK and Dutch). Play by our rules or drop dead. Unlike Greece, the president of Iceland refused to sign the deal with IMF and did a referendum. Over 70% of the population vote to fuck the IMF, recover the country from within and pay the debt as we can. Unlike mainstream media, economics and politics would tell you, no insurmountable crisis happened from defying the IMF. Health rates actually got better in times of crisis and the economy has recovered quite well.

 

[NotBanjaxo]

But the case of Iceland is even more interesting. Everybody has heard of a "financial bubble" but what they did in Iceland is worthy of a side plot in a James Bond movie.

Iceland is a country whose population is smaller than that of my shitty hometown (roughly 340k inhabitants). The ruling elite is composed by a small group of families with direct ties to feudalism. Since the 1970's an emergent class of neoliberal enthusiasts joined the elite and took over political power. They privatized all national banks and literally named themselves and their friends owners and managers of these banks as well as the Central Bank. Then they started buying foreign assets with their shares as collateral as well as buying each other shares with their own shares as collateral. Each of these banks joined the list of the world’s biggest 300 banks and Iceland was considered a financial paradise in the early 00's.

When the 2008 crisis hit, international investors withdrew their money and assets worth 900% of the national GDP flew away within a week. The national currency fell over half of its value to the euro; the stock market fell by 98%; Remarkably, the Icelandic "bankers" (they had no experience in finance) launched a high interest earning online platform (IceSave) in the midst of the collapse and hundreds of europeans (mostly UKers and Dutch) invested their money there;

The bankers denied any problem until the last minute but by 2008/2009 the IMF stationed a team full time in the national capital and offered the usual deal - similar to Greece: We'll "save" you if you cut spending in education, health, welfare, and everything else and spend all your money on interest payment to the banking system (specially UK and Dutch). Play by our rules or drop dead. Unlike Greece, the president of Iceland refused to sign the deal with IMF and did a referendum. Over 70% of the population vote to fuck the IMF, recover the country from within and pay the debt as we can. Unlike mainstream media, economics and politics would tell you, no insurmountable crisis happened from defying the IMF. Health rates actually got better in times of crisis and the economy has recovered quite well.

Yeah but fuck the Icelanders, they stole our bloody cod!

Cod Wars - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[regular john]

Yeah but fuck the Icelanders, they stole our bloody cod!

Cod Wars - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

they have nothing else other than cold water fish. That’s like fighting a lioness for her baby lions.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

I'm far from an expert @Banjaxo and @regular john but I was told by more than one Greek that their national economic problems stem from their culture of tax evasion. So the government basically involved the country in a scheme that involves spending fuck tons of money, but have (or at least had) no ability to ever pay it back.

 

[NotBanjaxo]

I'm far from an expert @Banjaxo and @regular john but I was told by more than one Greek that their national economic problems stem from their culture of tax evasion. So the government basically involved the country in a scheme that involves spending fuck tons of money, but have (or at least had) no ability to ever pay it back.

Like everything in life, I expect there are no simple answers. It's probably a combination of the things all 3 of us mentioned, along with another 26 things we're unaware of.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

Like everything in life, I expect there are no simple answers. It's probably a combination of the things all 3 of us mentioned, along with another 26 things we're unaware of.

Oh, there's for sure a bunch of moving parts, but I remember when it happened being like "How in the fuck are they do in debt?" Guy says to me, "You know how your employer deducts taxes off your paycheck? They don't do that in Greece and no one pays their taxes."

It's kind of like when @Splinty was speculating why Italy got hit so hard by covid in February and March and I told him that Italians do not give a flying fuck about being orderly and doing what they're told. It's just a cultural thing.

 

[NotBanjaxo]

Oh, there's for sure a bunch of moving parts, but I remember when it happened being like "How in the fuck are they do in debt?" Guy says to me, "You know how your employer deducts taxes off your paycheck? They don't do that in Greece and no one pays their taxes."

It's kind of like when @Splinty was speculating why Italy got hit so hard by covid in February and March and I told him that Italians do not give a flying fuck about being orderly and doing what they're told. It's just a cultural thing.

I remember watching an episode of Grand Designs where a couple were trying to restore an old Italian building to it's former glory. In Britain, they would have to go through all the bureaucratic stuff to get planning permission. In Italy, everyone just does the work, then greases the right palms to ensure that retrospective permission is granted.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

I remember watching an episode of Grand Designs where a couple were trying to restore an old Italian building to it's former glory. In Britain, they would have to go through all the bureaucratic stuff to get planning permission. In Italy, everyone just does the work, then greases the right palms to ensure that retrospective permission is granted.

I remember being in Italy in the fall of 09 while Berlusconi's getting a divorce for banging a model was in the national headlines (or something to that effect) at this same time he had an approval rating in the 60's. Which shows how few fucks Italians give about political matters.

 

[kneeblock]

I don't know much about EU politics as a whole but I've been reading about effects of the Great Recession in two countries and was fascinated.

The first is more well known, Greece. They had the biggest economic crisis of a developed country in history with more than 1 million people losing their jobs (~20% of the workforce). Banks from all Europe, mostly German, loaned money like crazy to the Greeks (public and private) during the construction and tourism boom of the early 00's. The government deregulated financial activity and accumulated a huge debt, which was considered stable until the 2008 crisis. When the crisis hit, private investors withdrawn their monies and the public debt became a snowball amounting to ~150% of GDP.

Germany and the European Central Bank bullied Greece into taking financial "help" from international agencies and the Greek government accepted the intervention of the Troika, which is a triparty entity responsible for handling economical crises in the EU. The European Central Bank, IMF and other "authorities" presented their "research" showcasing that gigantic spending cuts in health, education, infrastructure, welfare and other areas (minus police) would lead to recovery and that was why Greece had to comply.

In short, ALL of their predicions turned out to be completely wrong. Greece pays more and more and the debt grows more and more. Public health deteriorated with mass suicides, an HIV epidemics, housing crisis, spike in homicide and child mortality rates. Less than 5% of the billions loaned by international agencies made it to the Greek national budget. The rest was transferred back (with interest) to the German, French, and other European banks. i.e. Greek people paid the full price of the crisis while their civil rights were stolen and their tax money was redistributed to the same banks that precipitated the crisis in the first place. Of course, a radical national-populist party emerged in the political scene in the meantime.

It's worth reading Yannis Varoufakis' work on the Greek crisis. Germany's austerity policies via the IMF have been blamed for a lot of pain in southern Europe. It's also why German politics and the quasi-end of Merkelism is worth watching.

 

[member 1013]

Y’all talks funny

 

[member 3289]

All your vaccines belong to us.

 

[Qat]

Plain economic vengeance against a country for failing to avoid a crisis that was unavoidable.

This is a little simplistic.

If I were to make a very simple comparison, it's a bit like parents that see their kid failing financially and giving help with imposed conditions.

Happens all the time all over the world im sure.
The kid will always be pissed off, and the parents will be annoyed as well.

It's worth reading Yannis Varoufakis' work on the Greek crisis. Germany's austerity policies via the IMF have been blamed for a lot of pain in southern Europe. It's also why German politics and the quasi-end of Merkelism is worth watching.

Varoufakis is an interesting one, but as we would say here, he is a 'Fatzke'.

Now, regarding Greece, certainly a lot of shit has happened and I'm not saying you guys are wrong, but I want to offer another viewpoint to paint a more complete picture:

First of all, I have said before that I think the Euro was distributed too early in a lot of places, and Greece is one of em.
They already had ~105% GdP dept when they entered the Eurozone in 2001 amongst other problems, some which already were alluded to.
They also provided false data as to obfuscate their problems. This is a big one. They fucked up.
During the crisis Greece could have left the Eurozone, but they did not want to.

Now, regarding our role, there was an internal process that even went to the constitutional court, which instructed the politicians to tie fiscal policy decisions to the help for the Greeks. Merkel or not, this was not up for debate.
And it would have been an impossible sell to our citizens to be liable for Greek debts while they simply continue their mismanagement.
Certainly though it is inherintly wrong we even earned money on the whole process, I don't like that.

As far as results go, it was no surprise they would go into a hard recession. I hope they will have a much better outlook in one or two decades.

Interestingly, the same Söder I currently see as favorite to follow after Merkel said in 2012: "The ones to blame for the problems in Greece are the Greeks and nobody else." And he even suggested to make an example out of the Greeks.
He was minister of finances in Bavaria at that time.
So no Merkel might not lead to a softer course in such cases.

 

[regular john]

This is a little simplistic.

If I were to make a very simple comparison, it's a bit like parents that see their kid failing financially and giving help with imposed conditions.

Happens all the time all over the world im sure.
The kid will always be pissed off, and the parents will be annoyed as well.

Varoufakis is an interesting one, but as we would say here, he is a 'Fatzke'.

Now, regarding Greece, certainly a lot of shit has happened and I'm not saying you guys are wrong, but I want to offer another viewpoint to paint a more complete picture:

First of all, I have said before that I think the Euro was distributed too early in a lot of places, and Greece is one of em.
They already had ~105% GdP dept when they entered the Eurozone in 2001 amongst other problems, some which already were alluded to.
They also provided false data as to obfuscate their problems. This is a big one. They fucked up.
During the crisis Greece could have left the Eurozone, but they did not want to.

Now, regarding our role, there was an internal process that even went to the constitutional court, which instructed the politicians to tie fiscal policy decisions to the help for the Greeks. Merkel or not, this was not up for debate.
And it would have been an impossible sell to our citizens to be liable for Greek debts while they simply continue their mismanagement.
Certainly though it is inherintly wrong we even earned money on the whole process, I don't like that.

As far as results go, it was no surprise they would go into a hard recession. I hope they will have a much better outlook in one or two decades.

Interestingly, the same Söder I currently see as favorite to follow after Merkel said in 2012: "The ones to blame for the problems in Greece are the Greeks and nobody else." And he even suggested to make an example out of the Greeks.
He was minister of finances in Bavaria at that time.
So no Merkel might not lead to a softer course in such cases.

But the parents supposedly want the kid to recover financially. the IMF doesn't want no country to recover, they leverage the crises that are endemic to the system into imposing "structural adjustment" on all countries so their economy is drained and they remain tied to international finances. Always in debt, always needing "help". it's been done for 45 years and it has failed to induce economic growth for 45 years.

Economic vengeance is questionable from a moral point of view and ineffective from an economic point of view. Greece is worse off than when they started borrowing from the IMF and it's the people that are paying the price, not the politicians and speculators who precipitated the crisis.

 

[Qat]

But the parents supposedly want the kid to recover financially. the IMF doesn't want no country to recover, they leverage the crises that are endemic to the system into imposing "structural adjustment" on all countries so their economy is drained and they remain tied to international finances. Always in debt, always needing "help". it's been done for 45 years and it has failed to induce economic growth for 45 years.

Economic vengeance is questionable from a moral point of view and ineffective from an economic point of view. Greece is worse off than when they started borrowing from the IMF and it's the people that are paying the price, not the politicians and speculators who precipitated the crisis.

Yes it is the people who pay the price, but that also is part of democracy.

I agree somewhat with the questionable role of the IMF. There are talks of not involving em in further cases like this inside of the EU.

Aren't Portugal and Ireland doing better tho?

 

[jason73]

German quarantine breakers to be held in refugee camps, detention centers

Germans who repeatedly refuse to quarantine after being exposed to COVID-19 will be held in detention centers — and even under police guard, according to reports. Officials in the state of Sa…

nypost.com

and work shall set them free

 

[regular john]

I'm far from an expert @Banjaxo and @regular john but I was told by more than one Greek that their national economic problems stem from their culture of tax evasion. So the government basically involved the country in a scheme that involves spending fuck tons of money, but have (or at least had) no ability to ever pay it back.

This is the exact narrative the IMF and the powers that be want you to believe. They created this one and the one about a couple miserable prostitutes being the cause of their HIV epidemic. It’s the political economy of blame.

I have no idea if the Greeks are used to pay taxes or not but no one should buy that “their national economic problems stem from their culture of tax evasion”. It’s on the government to charge taxes and punish people who don’t pay.

Apparently no one thought about tax evasion when they were inflating the bubble in the boom years. The crises are endemic. There will be another one in a couple years after corona and another one after that.

 

[regular john]

Yes it is the people who pay the price, but that also is part of democracy.

I agree somewhat with the questionable role of the IMF. There are talks of not involving em in further cases like this inside of the EU.

Aren't Portugal and Ireland doing better tho?

I’m not sure about Portugal and Ireland but if the IMF “structural adjustment” work out well there it’ll be the first time in history it works. iirc Portugal wasn’t nearly as bad as Greece.

Also consider that getting “better” in terms of increasing GDP and halting inflation while half the country is unemployed and dying from basic diseases is not actually “getting better”.

 

[jason73]

Dutch government faces collapse over child benefits scandal

Coalition at risk amid fallout from tax authorities wrongly ‘hunting down’ thousands of families

www.theguardian.com