The whole section on cost
11)
Costing. Cost is a big contentious point for the F-35 but is often misrepresented with inflationary figures in $Then Year out to 2065, if we account for inflation the JSF program will cost a total $917 Billion in $2012 dollars, this is for development, procurement and sustainment out to 2065 of 2,443 aircraft. Development and Procurement is $59 and $257 Billion respectively, another 3.9 Billion for Construction and Operations & Sustainment is $597 Billion $2012. These estimates include Cost Growth Above Inflation over the 55 years as well as a mid-life upgrade and subsystems(ECM, EOTS etc) that legacy aircraft don’t include, there are also many factors in CAPE/GAO reports that is
questionable such as depot level maintenance and removal rates, the latest SAR also doesn’t include newer data such as the Cost War Room that is set to save $41 Billion.
JPO maintains an O&S cost of 535 billion. Production starts off in Low Rate Initial Production(LRIP) slowing ramping up to Full Rate Production(FRP) in 2018 and up to
120 aircraft per year in 2022, the prices for each lot
decrease‘s as
economies of scale
increase and as more efficient production techniques are learnt.
Cost increases, there is a lot of confusion over the exact increase due to the issue of cutting aircraft and delays causing inflation to affect the amounts. In 2001 the SDD started with the idea of 2,866 aircraft and 35 billion in development but no baseline was approved, in 2003 the first baseline was approved at 2,457 aircraft(13 dedicated to testing) and 45 billion development. The original prediction was 177 Billion in $2002, this is 226 Billion in $2012 based on Bureau of Labor Statistics, the current estimate is 323 Billion in $2012, this means the program is 43% over the predicted amount when accounting for inflation, this has been declining since 2009 high of 345 Billion. Of this increase apparently 40% of it is accountable to Lockheed faults, 22% for Pratt & Whitney and the rest is Government changes either in requirements(war spares) or
how to estimate costs.
The F-35 will have an individual 30 year operational life with production out to 2038 for a total 2,457 aircraft. The F-35 is replacing 1,200 F-16’s, 254 F-15C/Ds, 340 A-10’s, 100 Harriers, 662 Hornets and not scheduled to replace 200 F-15Es, 565 Super Hornets and 114 Growlers.
Now what about relative to other aircraft? Development is pretty pricey, at 55 billion its more than the F-22 at 42 billion, and the Euro-fighter and Rafale are about 30-25 billion respectively, the LRS-B is estimated to cost 24 billion, the B-2 cost about 37 billion.
How about aircraft unit costs? Unit Costs are often compared to older aircraft, this is not accurate as aircraft are always becoming more expensive as
complexity and demands increase resulting in more highly capable, albeit expensive aircraft.
In $2012 dollars the F-35A is
76/86(lowest/average) million over it’s production run, the F-35B/C is
94/109 million. The F-16 Block 52 is
likely 73 million, A Super Hornet is
63/79 million, a Growler is
64/72, the Gripen E/F is
around 80-85 mil, the Rafale C is
87mil and M is 100mil, the Eurofighter T3 costs
110 million in $2012, the F-22
115/181 million These costs are UNRF.
Unit costs are often confused between Unit Recurring Flyaway(basic airframe + engines + avionics), Unit Non-Recurring Flyaway(+ mission/weapon systems, ancillary and equipment), Procurement Unit Cost (+Spares), and Program Acquisition Unit Cost (+Development costs), it is important to compare the same cost measure. It is also very important to ensure calculations are made in same year dollars as inflation can rapidly change apparent pricing.
Also to remember is the aircraft lifetime, the Super Hornet is rated for 6,000 hours years where as all F-35s are 8,000 hours, to add more hours to the Super Hornet is called
a SLEP and costs 28 million for 3,000 hours. The Eurofighter is rated for 6,000 hours and Rafale 7,000 hours, the F-22 is 8,000 hours, as is the F-16.
How about cost per flying hour?
The F-35A flies 250 hours(
higher capability simulators replace some flying hours)per year at the cost of $32.5k per hour, cost of $8.1 million per year. An active F-16 flies 316 hours per year at a cost of
$8.2 million per year and 26k per hour, the F-16 does not include pods(Fuel, ECM, Targeting) required to reach similar capability as the F-35. The F-16s cost is also increasing as it get’s older and will
soon eclipse the F-35As. It’s important to compare the same type of cost, there is Operational Cost Per Flying Hour and the Variable Cost Per Flying Hour which is considerably lower.
An interesting exercise is the comparison of the F-22 to the F-35 projects. The
F-22 started with an APUC of $35 million $1985 which is $70 million in $2009 in 2009 the APUC was $160 million with notable performance cuts and delays. Same goes for
the F/A-18 although a much less risky program
it still encountered
significant issues such as a 50%
price increase, schedule slippage, questionable performance etc.
This GAO report was highly critical of the F-16 in 1977.
The F-35’s development timeline is also relatively moderate. The Rafale started development in 1982 and introduced in 2001(19 years). The Euro-fighter started in 1983 and was introduced in 2003(20 years). The Raptor started in 1986 and entered service in 2005(19 years). The PAK-FA, an evolutionary aircraft, started in 2001 and will be introduced in 2017(16 years). The Gripen started development in 1979 and was introduced in 1998(19 years). The Hornet was a redesign of the YF-17(9 years) from 1975 to 1983(8 Years) from which the Super Hornet evolved from 1992 to 2000(8 years). The F-35 in comparison to all of these started in 1996 with USAF IOC in 2016(20 years).
Whatever happened to the four year aircraft?