General Geopolitics Flashpoints

[Wintermute]

Aside from asses, I'm becoming a geopolitics nerd. I'm thinking the world is heading for some major flashpoints and I know there are some people knowledgeable in foreign policy, world politics and military strategy on here.

I'm thinking these are going to be conflicts to watch in the next 18 months:

• China in the South China Sea, specifically Taiwan
• Russia and Ukraine
• Egypt and Ethiopia

What do you guys think? Also, where do you get your analyses? I've been using:

• Stratfor: The World's Leading Geopolitical Intelligence Platform
• Council on Foreign Relations
• The Economist - World News, Politics, Economics, Business & Finance
• Homepage - Zeihan on Geopolitics
• GeoPop - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCx7EWheHmjCW3vX8K2d09vg
• Caspian Report - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwnKziETDbHJtx78nIkfYug
• Coursera

Dis-gus!

 

[FINGERS]

I'd say Russia Ukraine is real. Very real.

China is becoming very very strong militarily but it's still small beans compared the the imperial yankee scum. They talk big threaten bigger but eventually do fuck all.

Israel has Ethoipas back thanks to the damning of the Nile on their coin. So long as they let the water flow it will be fine. But that is definitely a war in the next couple of decades.

 

[Filthy]

I'd say Russia Ukraine is real. Very real.

China is becoming very very strong militarily but it's still small beans compared the the imperial yankee scum. They talk big threaten bigger but eventually do fuck all.

Israel has Ethoipas back thanks to the damning of the Nile on their coin. So long as they let the water flow it will be fine. But that is definitely a war in the next couple of decades.

i think the situation with Philippines and China regarding China's incursion in the SCS and the Phlips under Duarte being completely reliant on China for vaccines could be the divisive lever that China needs. But I agree with @Fingers that China is basically a slave labor camp that likes to talk big.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

Russia-Ukraine 'days from war' as Vladimir Putin puts 100,000 troops on border

Fears Russia-Ukraine 'days from war' as Putin puts 100,000 troops on border

The Russia-Ukraine crisis could be days from exploding into war with a source saying UK commanders are on "high alert" and monitoring the situation "with growing concern"

www.dailystar.co.uk

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

US sending two warships to Black Sea as Russia builds up forces in Ukraine

US sending two warships to Black Sea as Russia builds up forces in Ukraine

The United States will send two warships to the Black Sea next week amid a Russian build up of military forces along its border with Ukraine, the Turkish government said Friday.

thehill.com

 

[member 1013]

I'd say Russia Ukraine is real. Very real.

China is becoming very very strong militarily but it's still small beans compared the the imperial yankee scum. They talk big threaten bigger but eventually do fuck all.

Israel has Ethoipas back thanks to the damning of the Nile on their coin. So long as they let the water flow it will be fine. But that is definitely a war in the next couple of decades.

Israel is paying for the dam?

I can’t find anything to corroborate this

show me your sources mr newsman

 

[member 1013]

I’m watching Russia and Ukraine the closest. Shit is gonna be lit.

 

[FINGERS]

Israel is paying for the dam?

I can’t find anything to corroborate this

show me your sources mr newsman

Egypt’s water war

Alleged 'Ethiopian-Israeli plot' to divert the waters of the Blue Nile infuriates Cairo; experts warn the new dam would destroy Egyptian agriculture

www.timesofisrael.com

Academic Paper: The Israeli Strategy Towards the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - AL-Zaytouna Centre

Reading Time: 13 minutes By: Prof. Dr. Walid ‘Abd al-Hay. (Exclusively for al-Zaytouna Centre). Introduction: The Zionist political literature, in general, views the Arab world in three dimensions: the […]

eng.alzaytouna.net

It's not just Israel but they were an integral part of the plans way back. I remember doing a story on it.

A lot of the info seems to have been deleted for some reason. But it's a fact Israel has backed Ethiopia with billions for this project in return for guaranteed water supply. If I could be arsed I would try and find the pipeline that is being built between the 2 countries but as you are not paying me and I'm at work editing Prince stories. Google, or probably a better search engine is your friend.

 

[member 3289]

I’m watching Russia and Ukraine the closest. Shit is gonna be lit.

Ukraine has no chance. Like you in a fight vs me.

 

[member 1013]

Egypt’s water war

Alleged 'Ethiopian-Israeli plot' to divert the waters of the Blue Nile infuriates Cairo; experts warn the new dam would destroy Egyptian agriculture

www.timesofisrael.com

Academic Paper: The Israeli Strategy Towards the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - AL-Zaytouna Centre

Reading Time: 13 minutes By: Prof. Dr. Walid ‘Abd al-Hay. (Exclusively for al-Zaytouna Centre). Introduction: The Zionist political literature, in general, views the Arab world in three dimensions: the […]

eng.alzaytouna.net

It's not just Israel but they were an integral part of the plans way back. I remember doing a story on it.

A lot of the info seems to have been deleted for some reason. But it's a fact Israel has backed Ethiopia with billions for this project in return for guaranteed water supply. If I could be arsed I would try and find the pipeline that is being built between the 2 countries but as you are not paying me and I'm at work editing Prince stories. Google, or probably a better search engine is your friend.

Only thing I can find on diverting the Nile to Israel is a pipeline from Egypt to Israel under the Suez Canal and across the Sinai

the second source you quoted is Palestinian propaganda, good job.

A pipeline from israel to ethiopia is a long haul for freshwater and seems economically retarded when they have desalination technology

Rest In Peace sweet prince

 

[member 1013]

Ukraine has no chance. Like you in a fight vs me.

 

[Wintermute]

Only thing I can find on diverting the Nile to Israel is a pipeline from Egypt to Israel under the Suez Canal and across the Sinai

the second source you quoted is Palestinian propaganda, good job.

A pipeline from israel to ethiopia is a long haul for freshwater and seems economically retarded when they have desalination technology

Rest In Peace sweet prince

I put my dude on ignore a while ago haha.

I agree on Russia and Ukraine, that's going to pop off first. Russia has a weird foreign policy of defending Russians living abroad. This is similar to China's "Active Defense" Military Strategy in that any provocation Russia deems a threat to ex-pat Russians falls within their doctrine. I believe they used this to back the separatists in 2014 and will use it again. Strategically they must have Ukraine. The process that started with annexing Crimea to strengthen their Black Sea Fleet, continued with its expansion and the addition of more hulls. Taking Ukraine completely builds nationalist momentum to accomplish their other Eurasianist goals. They will more easily be able to project power into the Mediterranean, which I'm assuming helps as much with military deterrence as it does with energy transport to Europe.

I can't imagine the US actually getting involved but Turkey is making noise like it's going to do something, and if I'm not mistaken there are a couple other Caucus States in NATO, so I guess it's possible for Russia to bite off more than they can chew. But most countries are either in the 4th wave of the Pandemic or their economies are too depleted to actually fulfill their mutual defense obligations- especially since Ukraine ain't in NATO. ...and Erdogan has a habit of trying to have his cake and eat it too. I wouldn't put it past him to promise to come to Ukraine's aid and then... not.

This is the smart play on Russia's part and timing is perfect. I think Ukraine falls before 12/31/21 and Russia faces some hard sanctions from without, but bolstered nationalism within.

@Lars what do you think? Am I close?

 

[Wintermute]

...incidentally, Europe gets most of its crude from Russian, so I'm not sure what would happen to its exports if it were to embark on this course of action. Should they be sanctioned, Europe wouldn't be able to buy crude from them, so who's going to power Europe?

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

I’m watching Russia and Ukraine the closest. Shit is gonna be lit.

I liked Russia better when they were just meddling in elections. There, I've said it.

 

[kneeblock]

Myanmar is the place to watch. Hawks in the Biden admin are being restrained so far to allow Indonesia and other southeast Asian nations to take point. China has so far continued to support the military junta, but has expressed that they would prefer the old regime restored. Russia is also backing the military regime full throttle. The EU and UK are sending thoughts and prayers mostly, but atrocities continue weekly in Myanmar.

Yemen is another one and has been for about a decade. So far the global community seems content to just let people die there, but the balance of power remains precarious.

And Bolivia is tryin to restore democracy following a failed coup, but somewhat unsurprisingly, the Biden administration has decided to take the position of supporting the now jailed coup leaders. There are lithium resources to contest in Bolivia, of course, which always makes them vulnerable to manipulations from a number of outside parties.

 

[Wintermute]

Myanmar is the place to watch. Hawks in the Biden admin are being restrained so far to allow Indonesia and other southeast Asian nations to take point. China has so far continued to support the military junta, but has expressed that they would prefer the old regime restored. Russia is also backing the military regime full throttle. The EU and UK are sending thoughts and prayers mostly, but atrocities continue weekly in Myanmar.

Yemen is another one and has been for about a decade. So far the global community seems content to just let people die there, but the balance of power remains precarious.

And Bolivia is tryin to restore democracy following a failed coup, but somewhat unsurprisingly, the Biden administration has decided to take the position of supporting the now jailed coup leaders. There are lithium resources to contest in Bolivia, of course, which always makes them vulnerable to manipulations from a number of outside parties.

Hawks meaning Haines, Blinkin and Biden himself?

 

[member 3289]

I put my dude on ignore a while ago haha.

I agree on Russia and Ukraine, that's going to pop off first. Russia has a weird foreign policy of defending Russians living abroad. This is similar to China's "Active Defense" Military Strategy in that any provocation Russia deems a threat to ex-pat Russians falls within their doctrine. I believe they used this to back the separatists in 2014 and will use it again. Strategically they must have Ukraine. The process that started with annexing Crimea to strengthen their Black Sea Fleet, continued with its expansion and the addition of more hulls. Taking Ukraine completely builds nationalist momentum to accomplish their other Eurasianist goals. They will more easily be able to project power into the Mediterranean, which I'm assuming helps as much with military deterrence as it does with energy transport to Europe.

I can't imagine the US actually getting involved but Turkey is making noise like it's going to do something, and if I'm not mistaken there are a couple other Caucus States in NATO, so I guess it's possible for Russia to bite off more than they can chew. But most countries are either in the 4th wave of the Pandemic or their economies are too depleted to actually fulfill their mutual defense obligations- especially since Ukraine ain't in NATO. ...and Erdogan has a habit of trying to have his cake and eat it too. I wouldn't put it past him to promise to come to Ukraine's aid and then... not.

This is the smart play on Russia's part and timing is perfect. I think Ukraine falls before 12/31/21 and Russia faces some hard sanctions from without, but bolstered nationalism within.

@Lars what do you think? Am I close?

Ukraine might be too big for that. I think Russia is content to allow the separatist-controlled areas to operate like Transnistria.

 

[Wintermute]

Ukraine might be too big for that. I think Russia is content to allow the separatist-controlled areas to operate like Transnistria.

Go on

 

[Wintermute]

.

 

[FINGERS]

...incidentally, Europe gets most of its crude from Russian, so I'm not sure what would happen to its exports if it were to embark on this course of action. Should they be sanctioned, Europe wouldn't be able to buy crude from them, so who's going to power Europe?

There's a big pipeline under the black sea being bhilt that goes through Ukraine down to the gulf.

Putin isn't being a twat to be a twat even though he is a twat. He knows that once that is done Russia is in more financial peril.

 

[Wintermute]

.

 

[member 1013]

Lol way to format you dork

 

[member 3289]

Go on

The part under "rebel" control will continue to be internationally recognized as part of Ukraine (as Transnistria is internationally recognized as part of Moldova) and Russia will continue to support local authorities after essentially financing the territory's break from the country to which it belongs.

I don't see Russia trying to Crimea all of Ukraine. Not because they couldn't manage it militarily (they absolutely could), but there are uber-nationalist Ukrainians that would make Russian occupation hell with guerrilla warfare tactics and a never-say-die attitude.

 

[Wintermute]

.

 

[Wintermute]

Myanmar is the place to watch. Hawks in the Biden admin are being restrained so far to allow Indonesia and other southeast Asian nations to take point. China has so far continued to support the military junta, but has expressed that they would prefer the old regime restored. Russia is also backing the military regime full throttle. The EU and UK are sending thoughts and prayers mostly, but atrocities continue weekly in Myanmar.

Yemen is another one and has been for about a decade. So far the global community seems content to just let people die there, but the balance of power remains precarious.

And Bolivia is tryin to restore democracy following a failed coup, but somewhat unsurprisingly, the Biden administration has decided to take the position of supporting the now jailed coup leaders. There are lithium resources to contest in Bolivia, of course, which always makes them vulnerable to manipulations from a number of outside parties.

The crazy thing about Myanmar is that it's basically what Trump tried to do after the election here. As I understand it, though, the landslide winner and stateswoman Suu Kyi- was the incumbent and has been actively working to demilitarize the country. Min Aung Hlaing, C-in-C of the military, obviously doesn't want the country demilitarized, and was making the same kind of pre-emptive election fraud claims Trump tried.

At stake is $350M from the IMF the country got without restrictions, but ostensibly to combat COVID-19, and participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative.

EDIT: Ah, in reading more- apparently Hlaing is responsible for the military's ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims (surprise), and he's been under investigation for all kinds of war crimes as well as corruption. So... he HAS to be in charge or he's fucked, same as Trump.

Maybe @kneeblock can elaborate more?