I put my dude on ignore a while ago haha.
I agree on Russia and Ukraine, that's going to pop off first. Russia has a weird foreign policy of
defending Russians living abroad. This is similar to China's "Active Defense" Military Strategy in that any provocation Russia deems a threat to ex-pat Russians falls within their doctrine. I believe they used this to back the separatists in 2014 and will use it again. Strategically they must have Ukraine. The process that started with annexing Crimea to strengthen their Black Sea Fleet, continued with its expansion and the addition of more hulls. Taking Ukraine completely builds nationalist momentum to accomplish their other
Eurasianist goals. They will more easily be able to project power into the Mediterranean, which I'm assuming helps as much with military deterrence as it does with energy transport to Europe.
I can't imagine the US actually getting involved but Turkey is making noise like it's going to do something, and if I'm not mistaken there are a couple other Caucus States in NATO, so I guess it's possible for Russia to bite off more than they can chew. But most countries are either in the 4th wave of the Pandemic or their economies are too depleted to actually fulfill their mutual defense obligations- especially since Ukraine ain't in NATO. ...and Erdogan has a habit of trying to
have his cake and eat it too. I wouldn't put it past him to promise to come to Ukraine's aid and then... not.
This is the smart play on Russia's part and timing is perfect. I think Ukraine falls before 12/31/21 and Russia faces some hard sanctions from without, but bolstered nationalism within.
@Lars what do you think? Am I close?