Help with the Masvidal and the Branch fights?

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SlapheadGiraffe

Posting Machine
Jun 21, 2016
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Really struggling for an opinion on these fights and as it will be about 4am my time by the time they come on I need to bet!

Any strong opinions out there?
 

SuperPig

Enjoy yourselves
Aug 7, 2015
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Masvidal has a huge striking advantage and is good at defending takedowns and getting back to his feet. If he can keep the distance so that Maia can't drag him down then it should be an easy victory. Of course, the logical problem is that no one seems to be able to keep Maia at a distance lately. Jorge should win this but one mistake is all it will take for him to end up with a scary backpack.


I don't know enough about Jotko to have a strong opinion about it. I think Branch is more skilled overall and has beaten some solid opponents. The only thing I'm pretty comfortable with would be expecting a decision. They've had a total of 43 fights and 21 have went to decision. If there's a finish, I'd expect it to come from Branch who is more opportunistic.
 
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SlapheadGiraffe

Posting Machine
Jun 21, 2016
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Masvidal has a huge striking advantage and is good at defending takedowns and getting back to his feet. If he can keep the distance so that Maia can't drag him down then it should be an easy victory. Of course, the logical problem is that no one seems to be able to keep Maia at a distance lately. Jorge should win this but one mistake is all it will take for him to end up a scary backpack.


I don't know enough about Jotko to have a strong opinion about it. I think Branch is more skilled overall and has beaten some solid opponents. The only thing I'm pretty comfortable with would be expecting a decision. They've had a total of 43 fights and 21 have went to decision. If there's a finish, I'd expect it to come from Branch who is more opportunistic.
Good post. The problem is that no one seems to be able to hit Maia either these days!
 

SuperPig

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Aug 7, 2015
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Good post. The problem is that no one seems to be able to hit Maia either these days!
That's because he gets on them instantly and wraps them up like a pretzel. Isn't it something like 13 strikes landed against him total in his last 4 fights? Insanity.
 

La Paix

Fuck this place
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Jan 14, 2015
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Maia has shown he can come out blazing and out guy down with ease. I don't think anyone in WW can hang with him on the mat and it's just a matter of time before they wilt.

Having said that Jorge has impressive TDD but none of his opponents have the chain wrestling near Maia.





Then Damian's stats




I'm predicting Maia controls where the fight goes in the 1st and keeps Jorge at distance or on his back. Late in the second Masvidal will have what appears to be a swing of momentum with a sweep or knock down and at that point Damian will capitalize on his over confidence and make him tap.
 

HEATH VON DOOM

Remember the 5th of November
Oct 21, 2015
17,281
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Maia has shown he can come out blazing and out guy down with ease. I don't think anyone in WW can hang with him on the mat and it's just a matter of time before they wilt.

Having said that Jorge has impressive TDD but none of his opponents have the chain wrestling near Maia.





Then Damian's stats




I'm predicting Maia controls where the fight goes in the 1st and keeps Jorge at distance or on his back. Late in the second Masvidal will have what appears to be a swing of momentum with a sweep or knock down and at that point Damian will capitalize on his over confidence and make him tap.
If Maia gets him down early in the first the fight is over. Maia is next level BJJ and proves it everytime.
 

SuperPig

Enjoy yourselves
Aug 7, 2015
30,979
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Maia has shown he can come out blazing and out guy down with ease. I don't think anyone in WW can hang with him on the mat and it's just a matter of time before they wilt.

Having said that Jorge has impressive TDD but none of his opponents have the chain wrestling near Maia.





Then Damian's stats




I'm predicting Maia controls where the fight goes in the 1st and keeps Jorge at distance or on his back. Late in the second Masvidal will have what appears to be a swing of momentum with a sweep or knock down and at that point Damian will capitalize on his over confidence and make him tap.
I hope that you're right. I really want Maia to win. I'm not expecting it just like I wasn't expecting him to walk through Condit but I'm really hoping that it happens.
 
T

The Big Guy

Guest
This question has a basic answer

Stay the fuck away from those fights. Especially maia masvidal. Bet on frankie and jj on a parlay you have better odds at better odds
 

Gay For Longo

*insert Matt Serra meme
Jan 22, 2016
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Really struggling for an opinion on these fights and as it will be about 4am my time by the time they come on I need to bet!

Any strong opinions out there?
Both are tough fights to pick
I know masvidal has improved his takedown defence and is a legit badass, I just think maia is on the next tier and will be able to get the back, and it's all over from there

I think branch has faced the stiffer competition and is a higher level on the ground
I took branch by sub
 

Gay For Longo

*insert Matt Serra meme
Jan 22, 2016
16,758
18,014
Masvidal has a huge striking advantage and is good at defending takedowns and getting back to his feet. If he can keep the distance so that Maia can't drag him down then it should be an easy victory. Of course, the logical problem is that no one seems to be able to keep Maia at a distance lately. Jorge should win this but one mistake is all it will take for him to end up with a scary backpack.


I don't know enough about Jotko to have a strong opinion about it. I think Branch is more skilled overall and has beaten some solid opponents. The only thing I'm pretty comfortable with would be expecting a decision. They've had a total of 43 fights and 21 have went to decision. If there's a finish, I'd expect it to come from Branch who is more opportunistic.
Another thing isnmasvidal favor is endurance
If he can get it to the 3rd, he may finish this fight
 
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Rambo John J

Eats things that would make a Billy Goat Puke
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
71,713
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This question has a basic answer

Stay the fuck away from those fights. Especially maia masvidal. Bet on frankie and jj on a parlay you have better odds at better odds
hard to bet against Yair though IMO

I looked at the odds and nothing is a great value...Lines are set up pretty well to botch parlays this card
 

nuraknu

savage
Jul 20, 2016
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I picked Jorge to win based on analysis of experts and breakdowns. However, he hasn't had any truly amazing wins at 170 - specifically in this weight class he is mostly hype. My original personal feeling was that Maia should be able to handle him and get the W. Agree with no bet.
 
T

The Big Guy

Guest
hard to bet against Yair though IMO

I looked at the odds and nothing is a great value...Lines are set up pretty well to botch parlays this card
He will attempt something stupid and while trying to reposition he will be taken down. I think the real difference will be yairs sweeps and scrambles.

Frankie ud
 

kneeblock

Drapetomaniac
Apr 18, 2015
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Maia is too big and strong for Masvidal imo. Ex 185er vs ex 155er. I'm very much a Maia stan though. He's our jiu jesus.
 

Wild

Zi Nazi
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Dec 31, 2014
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Masvidal has a huge striking advantage and is good at defending takedowns and getting back to his feet. If he can keep the distance so that Maia can't drag him down then it should be an easy victory. Of course, the logical problem is that no one seems to be able to keep Maia at a distance lately. Jorge should win this but one mistake is all it will take for him to end up with a scary backpack.


I don't know enough about Jotko to have a strong opinion about it. I think Branch is more skilled overall and has beaten some solid opponents. The only thing I'm pretty comfortable with would be expecting a decision. They've had a total of 43 fights and 21 have went to decision. If there's a finish, I'd expect it to come from Branch who is more opportunistic.
Solid post.