General New research puts the 'good guy with a gun' idea to rest

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Dave Insurgent

Johnny hates to think, he's ignorant
Jan 11, 2016
13,461
13,391
New research puts the 'good guy with a gun' idea to rest: Loose concealed-carry laws are linked to more firearm homicides

  • A new study found that states with looser concealed-carry gun laws have higher rates of gun homicide.
  • The results also showed that higher levels of gun ownership are associated with more mass shootings.
  • The study suggests the US could reduce gun violence by lowering levels of gun ownership and passing stricter concealed-carry laws.
The "good guy with a gun" theory goes like this: If more well-intentioned people carry guns, there's a higher chance of stopping a violent shooter.

Unfortunately, that's not how it works in real life, according to new research published in the journal Justice Quarterly. The study found that laws allowing more people to carry guns in public are associated with a rise in gun violence. The results also showed that the higher a state's gun-ownership rate, the more likely a mass shooting is.

Emma Fridel, an assistant professor at Florida State University who authored the study, measured the affects of gun ownership rates and concealed-carry laws in all 50 states from 1991 to 2016. She controlled for other factors that might influence mass shooting and homicide rates, like unemployment rates, poverty levels and states' mental health expenditures.

Her findings show that looser concealed-carry laws had little impact on mass shootings and increased a state's gun homicide rate by 11%. Higher rates of firearm ownership overall, meanwhile, was associated with a 53.5% increase in the likelihood of a mass shooting.

"In popular culture, you hear people saying, 'Oh, if I had a gun and I was at that Wal-Mart, I could've stopped that shooting,'" Fridel told Business Insider "But that's probably not true."

Concealed-carry laws have become more prevalent
In 2015, 56% of Americans said they believed that increased gun-carrying in public — if carriers passed criminal background checks and training courses — would make the country safer.

Changing state laws have reflected that belief: While just 15 states had permissive concealed-carry policies in the early 1990s, 41 states had implemented them as of 2018. For instance, Ohio passed a law in 2017 allowing people with concealed-carry permits to bring firearms into daycare centers and company parking lots.

Meanwhile, mass shootings and firearm deaths have increased, particularly in the last decade. The US saw 418 mass shootings and 15,395 deaths due to gun violence in 2019 (not counting suicides), compared to 269 mass shootings and 12,390 deaths in 2014.

Fridel's research showed that conceal-carry laws are a stronger predictor of firearm homicides than gun ownership.

"Concealed-carry laws are such a strong effect that it drowns the firearm ownership rate out," she said. It was only when she eliminated concealed-carry legislation as a factor in the analysis that she also found a positive correlation between general gun ownership and gun homicides.

Mass shootings 'disproportionately' drive gun laws
Even though mass-shooting deaths represented just a tiny fraction of total firearm deaths in 2019 (465 out of the 39,485, according to the Gun Violence Archive), the horror of mass shootings means these events have "disproportionately influenced the public discourse on firearms ownership and legislation," according to Fridel.

A 2019 study found that each mass-shooting incident increased the total number of firearm-related bills introduced in a given state by 15%.

Fridel's study suggests a "two-pronged approach" for combating gun violence in the US overall, mass shooting or otherwise. The first solution is to reduce gun ownership, potentially via universal background checks and increased requirements for permits. The second is simply to make concealed-carry permits more difficult to get.








And for those concerned about media bias, here is the original study:
Comparing the Impact of Household Gun Ownership and Concealed Carry Legislation on the Frequency of Mass Shootings and Firearms Homicide
 

Jesus X

licking a toad with uncle mike
Sep 7, 2015
20,633
23,640
im the covid apocalypse scenario I rather everyone had a gun than not have a piece it evens out the playing field. cops already proved they will not help you out if shit hits the fan.
 
Jun 28, 2016
13,260
17,860
Hey Brian Ortega's Goon Hand @Brian Ortega's Goon Hand

Good news. The science is settled, correlation does equal causation.
thank God.

my professional life of analyzing data and correcting for sources of variation of unknown magnitude in order to predict future trends is over, BUT now I can just politicize everything by cherry-picking my sources and basking in confirmation bias.

Glorious news.
 
Jun 28, 2016
13,260
17,860
Bad "research" puts the 'good guy with a gun' idea to rest: Loose concealed-carry laws are linked to more firearm homicides if you believe hard enough


  • A new study found that states with looser concealed-carry gun laws have higher rates of gun homicide, if you fail remember to fail to quantify sources of variance and correct for effect. That way, you can make yourself believe that correlation is causation.

    "It was only when she eliminated concealed-carry legislation as a factor in the analysis that she also found a positive correlation between general gun ownership and gun homicides. "

  • The results also showed that higher levels of gun ownership are associated with more mass shootings, if you believe that there were 465 'Mass Shootings' in 2019. It helps if you conflate legal and illegal gun ownership.

  • The study suggests the US could reduce gun violence by lowering levels of gun ownership and passing stricter concealed-carry laws, just as soon as we figure out how to wave our magic wand, or decide that our society could lock another 10% of the population in cages.
 

ConorMcGregorsBeard

Stewart Era Liberal
Jul 22, 2015
33,874
32,686
thank God.

my professional life of analyzing data and correcting for sources of variation of unknown magnitude in order to predict future trends is over, BUT now I can just politicize everything by cherry-picking my sources and basking in confirmation bias.

Glorious news.
Dude, I really can't tell you what a relief this is. No more reading, no more debating. Just see an event, arbitrarily select an object and blame that thing for the event happening. This is an absolute game changer.

By the way, I just realized that gun ownership prevents covid infection. Spread the word.
 

Dave Insurgent

Johnny hates to think, he's ignorant
Jan 11, 2016
13,461
13,391
Interesting how everyone has a lot to say but no one has been able to actually make a valid point.

The study is bad, why?

The science behind it is bad, why?

you have an issue with the research organization behind the study, explain?


You agree, why?

You disagree, why?
 

sparkuri

Pulse On The Finger Of The Community
First 100
Jan 16, 2015
24,342
36,491
Interesting how everyone has a lot to say but no one has been able to actually make a valid point.

The study is bad, why?

The science behind it is bad, why?

you have an issue with the research organization behind the study, explain?


You agree, why?

You disagree, why?
Quit wasting people's time.
The history of gun control cannot be erased with a communist study.

This is like Peter Schiff arguing monetary policy with msnbc hacks.
 

Dave Insurgent

Johnny hates to think, he's ignorant
Jan 11, 2016
13,461
13,391
Quit wasting people's time.
The history of gun control cannot be erased with a communist study.

This is like Peter Schiff arguing monetary policy with msnbc hacks.
What makes it a ‘communist’ study?

Justice Quarterly is far from a ‘communist’ journal.

The author is a criminologist from Florida State University.
 
Jun 28, 2016
13,260
17,860
Interesting how everyone has a lot to say but no one has been able to actually make a valid point.

The study is bad, why?

The science behind it is bad, why?

you have an issue with the research organization behind the study, explain?


You agree, why?

You disagree, why?
literally explained why the science was bad.

start here: 465 Mass Shootings in 2019, or nah?
 

Dave Insurgent

Johnny hates to think, he's ignorant
Jan 11, 2016
13,461
13,391
Why do so many of these happen in areas with a lot of strict gun laws?
Wait, now correlation equals causation?

I can’t answer that question. But statistically, more gun violence happens in areas with loose concealed carry laws (according to the author).
 
Last edited:

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
20,831
23,784
Wait, now correlation equals causation?

I can’t answer that question. But statistically, more gun violence happens in areas with loose concealed carry laws (according to the author).
There are a lot of mass shootings in California and Chicago, just 2 examples.