Sports NFL Official Thread (ongoing)

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BruteDion

BruteDion

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Aug 13, 2024
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Rambo John J said:
I get it in that context and agree. Appreciate the explanation.

I do think analytics are great and useful, just think a coach has to only take them as part of the equation.

Personally I think playing for two 7s being down 14 can be a wise decision depending on all the other variables. If your defense is total shit then I guess you gamble on getting a stop and roll the dice. I also don't like the momentum switch that occurs when you fail on a 2.
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There are certain models that may agree with this given the right situations for sure.

Like models with PFR use vegas odd to help make better predictions on what would happen. Take for example your team is far better than the other team on paper and Vegas odds reflect that by having you be the heavy favorite. If your team was just unlucky and were down 14 because of fumbles/tipped INTs/Bad reffing it does not mean that your team still is not the far better team. More do if you are only down by 14 and the other team only scored on those unlucky plays by you.

If you think that is the case as a coach then going by the conventional knowledge and just take those extra points its assumed that your team also will find a way to win because well you are the better team.

Flip that in reverse where Vegas thinks you are the heavy underdog and you are down because you are the worst team and those 14pts were put up on you in a clean way then it makes sense to try and go for the 2pt conversion and because you think in conventional situations your team would be the one losing.
 
Rambo John J

Rambo John J

Baker Team
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
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BruteDion said:
There are certain models that may agree with this given the right situations for sure.

Like models with PFR use vegas odd to help make better predictions on what would happen. Take for example your team is far better than the other team on paper and Vegas odds reflect that by having you be the heavy favorite. If your team was just unlucky and were down 14 because of fumbles/tipped INTs/Bad reffing it does not mean that your team still is not the far better team. More do if you are only down by 14 and the other team only scored on those unlucky plays by you.

If you think that is the case as a coach then going by the conventional knowledge and just take those extra points its assumed that your team also will find a way to win because well you are the better team.

Flip that in reverse where Vegas thinks you are the heavy underdog and you are down because you are the worst team and those 14pts were put up on you in a clean way then it makes sense to try and go for the 2pt conversion and because you think in conventional situations your team would be the one losing.
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That makes total sense, it so damn complicated.

I'm not trying to bust balls as you know, I just love me some football
 
BruteDion

BruteDion

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Aug 13, 2024
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I was thinking the other day on just how smart the saying "We don't practice fucked" is really. Well how good Sam Darnold/Joe Flacco/etc have looked and how bad Miami looks without Tua it just seems really fucking dumb to not have a very solid backup QB or to not invest in developing a backup QB behind your franchise guy.

Philly won a title because they had a good backup option behind Wentz in Nick Foles and KC would have 1 less SB now if they didnt have a useful backup behind Mahomes. It feels like just because a coach said something really cool that one time coaches are not questioning it as much as they should be.

I understand the argument of not wanting to waste man hours/practice time on getting a backup QB ready but when it comes time for them to play....it seems like those man hours you thought were gonna be a waste would feel like a small price to pay now.
 
BruteDion

BruteDion

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Aug 13, 2024
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I didn't know Artie Burns was still in the NFL. Dude had one of the all time draft day girlfriends.
 
Rambo John J

Rambo John J

Baker Team
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
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Deebo was +750 to score a TD and put a ten spot on it, he must be pretty dinged up despite that play
 
BruteDion

BruteDion

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Aug 13, 2024
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It's been a great start to the season for Minn but I think the overall middling talent in some areas may get them in trouble. Also it's not like Gimore and Harrison Smith are spring chickens.
 
BruteDion

BruteDion

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Aug 13, 2024
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I may have found the one sports doctor who's worse than Dr. Chao. This guy is famous for calling players who get hurt often soft and makes fun of his own patients (yes he's a real practicing doctor). Here he is telling Christian Watson's father that he wrong about what injury his own son has.

Screenshot_20241011-000118_X.jpg
 
Hauler

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
49,080
61,119
trotskyshammer said:
I’ve seen the YouTube shorts, but I wonder. Is the nfl really rigged?
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Not a chance. Like zero.
"NFL is scripted" people are the flat-earthers of the sports world.

What does happen is referee favoritism - intentional or not - for certain teams and players. That's where the "this whole thing is fixed" talk comes from.
 
Chimonos Revenge

Chimonos Revenge

Fortune and Glory Kid
Oct 28, 2015
1,329
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Hauler said:
Not a chance. Like zero.
"NFL is scripted" people are the flat-earthers of the sports world.

What does happen is referee favoritism - intentional or not - for certain teams and players. That's where the "this whole thing is fixed" talk comes from.
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Yeah, the refs influence the games to favor certain teams. The problem is is that it’s not even well hidden the last couple of years, and certainly plainly obvious since the Tay Tay era started

I wouldn’t use the word scripted. I would use the word rigged though. Because the reffing is absolutely rigged for a certain team and especially for a certain player
 
Hauler

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
49,080
61,119
Chimonos Revenge said:
Yeah, the refs influence the games to favor certain teams. The problem is is that it’s not even well hidden the last couple of years, and certainly plainly obvious since the Tay Tay era started

I wouldn’t use the word scripted. I would use the word rigged though. Because the reffing is absolutely rigged for a certain team and especially for a certain player
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Is it rigged or unintentional favoritism?

You see the same thing in MLB. A rookie hitter has a tight strike zone. A vet with a reputation of having a good eye at the plate will get the benefit of the doubt on close pitches. Works with pitchers too. A pitcher with solid demand on any given night will get generous calls that might be a little off the plate, where if a pitcher who is struggling throws a pitch in that exact same position it will get called a ball.

Umps/Refs are human. It might not be intended bias - but it definitely happens.
 
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