The decline of submissions in MMA.

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Mishima Zaibatsu

TMMAC’s resident musician
Feb 27, 2016
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Did a little research tonight while watching the fights. Turns out, what I've thought for a long time is true, atleast for over a year now, but I'd wager it's been going on for alot longer.

When they got rid of the SOTN(aswell as KOTN) bonus and just started doing POTN, I saw that as a sign that they saw submission wins were declining. Now I have a bit of data to back that up.

Since UFC 200 back in July of 2016 and every event up to UFC 217 this November, 684 fights, across 57 events, only around 17% of fights on average are won by sub.

70% of those cards have 2 or less wins by sub. There was an entire event where not a single fight ended via submission, which was Gus vs Teixeira.

Seems like the most frequent number of subs occur during events that take place in... take a guess...

Brazil. Makes sense, you're going to have more BJJ blackbelts competing on a Brazilian card than run of the mill cards in the US, Canada or somewhere in Europe.

When you look at the champions, currenty, they aren't Jiu Jitsu based fighters generally. They might train it because you need to to be a well rounded fighter. But they aren't focusing on it in the same way that some fighters do. And that bit of data I have shows that most fighters coming up and even veterans aren't either, or atleast not anymore.

Dillashaw is a Wrestle-Kickboxer, Holloway is mostly a striker with a couple Guillotine wins, Conor is a Boxer/TaeKwonDo practitioner, who, has a brown belt apparently, but his only losses were via sub, 2 early in his career, one rather recently and he has 1 win via RNC. Woodley is a Brown Belt and actually has a few sub wins, but all were at the beginning of his career back in 2009, he's more of play it safe Wrestle Boxer now.

I can't really think of any champions right now that are submission machines, GSP finished Bisping via RNC, but that's his first sub win in almost a decade iirc.

Thought I'd share this with you guys so if you ever wonder how BJJ's presence in MMA is rn(atleast effective offensive BJJ), you can see it's declined quite a bit. Defensive Jiu Jitsu, both from top and bottom seem to be the norm nowadays.

I heard once before that it takes less time to learn how to defend a sub alone than to learn that aswell as how to attack with one, which makes perfect sense, you're spending half the time to learn how to stop rather than how to attack and focusing on other aspects of MMA. Another thing is submissions, unless you're exceptionally good at them and at a higher skill level than your opponent, are risky, because they can give up a potentially dominant pin or osaekomi waza for the Judo enthusiasts out there :p.
 

silentsinger

Momofuku
Jun 23, 2015
21,038
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This post has been up for far too long without any recognition apart from CHiLLEN @CHiLLEN
Solid post, the decline of jiu jitsu's pissed me off immensely and made me leave the sport for a while. The UFC's treatment of Maia, I'll never forget.
 

SongExotic2

ATM 3 CHAMPION OF THE WORLD. #FREECAIN
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Jan 16, 2015
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Akira corsani (?) And Chael ruined submissions with thier fake tapping.

Safer to just knock people clean out these days
 
M

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Guest
I don't think getting rid of SOTN had anything to do with it.

By that logic, knockouts would be down, too. Are they?
 

SuperPig

Enjoy yourselves
Aug 7, 2015
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As you said, it's easier to learn to defend yourself than it is to properly learn multiple ways to set up the same submission to the point that if someone defends one way you still have 3 more ways to attack and create an opening.


Also, as last night's TUF finale shows when there is a larger gap in skills and experience and less well rounded fighters you'll see more submissions.
 

jason73

Yuri Bezmenov was right
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Jan 15, 2015
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Were also in an era where most fighters under 30 grew up training mma from day 1 and not transitioning to mma after mastering another art.there are very few damien maia types left
 

La Paix

Fuck this place
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Jan 14, 2015
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It's just the ebb and flow MMA. 2-3 years ago top fighters like Rousey, Werdum, Rockhold, Silva, Jones and more who have amazing BJJ and all racked up numerous subs in highlight reel fashion.

In the early days it was just smash and bash until Gracie BJJ took the lead (strictly talking UFC). Then it was the wrestling phase, the striking took over and so on. As each martial art style would become dominant the need to find the answers to it was the priority so everyone's game evolved to change the tide.

@jeicex do you have any stats that'll give some insight here?
 

Gay For Longo

*insert Matt Serra meme
Jan 22, 2016
16,758
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Did a little research tonight while watching the fights. Turns out, what I've thought for a long time is true, atleast for over a year now, but I'd wager it's been going on for alot longer.

When they got rid of the SOTN(aswell as KOTN) bonus and just started doing POTN, I saw that as a sign that they saw submission wins were declining. Now I have a bit of data to back that up.

Since UFC 200 back in July of 2016 and every event up to UFC 217 this November, 684 fights, across 57 events, only around 17% of fights on average are won by sub.

70% of those cards have 2 or less wins by sub. There was an entire event where not a single fight ended via submission, which was Gus vs Teixeira.

Seems like the most frequent number of subs occur during events that take place in... take a guess...

Brazil. Makes sense, you're going to have more BJJ blackbelts competing on a Brazilian card than run of the mill cards in the US, Canada or somewhere in Europe.

When you look at the champions, currenty, they aren't Jiu Jitsu based fighters generally. They might train it because you need to to be a well rounded fighter. But they aren't focusing on it in the same way that some fighters do. And that bit of data I have shows that most fighters coming up and even veterans aren't either, or atleast not anymore.

Dillashaw is a Wrestle-Kickboxer, Holloway is mostly a striker with a couple Guillotine wins, Conor is a Boxer/TaeKwonDo practitioner, who, has a brown belt apparently, but his only losses were via sub, 2 early in his career, one rather recently and he has 1 win via RNC. Woodley is a Brown Belt and actually has a few sub wins, but all were at the beginning of his career back in 2009, he's more of play it safe Wrestle Boxer now.

I can't really think of any champions right now that are submission machines, GSP finished Bisping via RNC, but that's his first sub win in almost a decade iirc.

Thought I'd share this with you guys so if you ever wonder how BJJ's presence in MMA is rn(atleast effective offensive BJJ), you can see it's declined quite a bit. Defensive Jiu Jitsu, both from top and bottom seem to be the norm nowadays.

I heard once before that it takes less time to learn how to defend a sub alone than to learn that aswell as how to attack with one, which makes perfect sense, you're spending half the time to learn how to stop rather than how to attack and focusing on other aspects of MMA. Another thing is submissions, unless you're exceptionally good at them and at a higher skill level than your opponent, are risky, because they can give up a potentially dominant pin or osaekomi waza for the Judo enthusiasts out there :p.
Great fucking post
 

Gay For Longo

*insert Matt Serra meme
Jan 22, 2016
16,758
18,014
It's just the ebb and flow MMA. 2-3 years ago top fighters like Rousey, Werdum, Rockhold, Silva, Jones and more who have amazing BJJ and all racked up numerous subs in highlight reel fashion.

In the early days it was just smash and bash until Gracie BJJ took the lead (strictly talking UFC). Then it was the wrestling phase, the striking took over and so on. As each martial art style would become dominant the need to find the answers to it was the priority so everyone's game evolved to change the tide.

@jeicex do you have any stats that'll give some insight here?
Also a good post just one correction

until Gracie BJJ took the lead (strictly talking UFC)

Not strictly ufc, remember pride started with Rickson
 
C

Ceiling Fan

Guest
@jeicex do you have any stats that'll give some insight here?
I do, whatcha looking for? I'll start with this one, about percent of fights ending by submission by year for the past ten years.

2017 so far - 18%
2016 - 18.3%
2015 - 18.6%
2014 - 19.3%
2013 - 18.1%
2012 - 20.5%
2011 - 19%
2010 - 24.1%
2009 - 23.3%
2008 - 26.9%
2007 - 32.2%

So, there has been a dropoff, as far as proportion of wins by submissions, over the past ten years. If the pace stays the same, 2017 will have the fewest percent of fights ending by submission in UFC history (by a small margin, less than 2013).

There are many possible reasons, the most likely of which is that modern fighters train in all aspects of MMA more equally and thoroughly than ever. They drill submission defense, so they're not as likely to fall into the armbar traps, etc. I don't know these numbers so I'm speaking purely anecdotally, but it seems like almost every fighter on the roster is a full time fighter - they remarked last night that Ryan Janes has a full time job, which was unusual for fighters these days. Eaty, sleepy, trainy.
 

La Paix

Fuck this place
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Jan 14, 2015
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Also a good post just one correction

until Gracie BJJ took the lead (strictly talking UFC)

Not strictly ufc, remember pride started with Rickson
Yup. I was making the UFC comment as I wasn't up to speed on Vale Tudo and all the other smaller orgs around the same time. Your point is valid though.
 

Haulport

Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes
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Jan 17, 2015
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Did a little research tonight while watching the fights. Turns out, what I've thought for a long time is true, atleast for over a year now, but I'd wager it's been going on for alot longer.

When they got rid of the SOTN(aswell as KOTN) bonus and just started doing POTN, I saw that as a sign that they saw submission wins were declining. Now I have a bit of data to back that up.

Since UFC 200 back in July of 2016 and every event up to UFC 217 this November, 684 fights, across 57 events, only around 17% of fights on average are won by sub.

70% of those cards have 2 or less wins by sub. There was an entire event where not a single fight ended via submission, which was Gus vs Teixeira.

Seems like the most frequent number of subs occur during events that take place in... take a guess...

Brazil. Makes sense, you're going to have more BJJ blackbelts competing on a Brazilian card than run of the mill cards in the US, Canada or somewhere in Europe.

When you look at the champions, currenty, they aren't Jiu Jitsu based fighters generally. They might train it because you need to to be a well rounded fighter. But they aren't focusing on it in the same way that some fighters do. And that bit of data I have shows that most fighters coming up and even veterans aren't either, or atleast not anymore.

Dillashaw is a Wrestle-Kickboxer, Holloway is mostly a striker with a couple Guillotine wins, Conor is a Boxer/TaeKwonDo practitioner, who, has a brown belt apparently, but his only losses were via sub, 2 early in his career, one rather recently and he has 1 win via RNC. Woodley is a Brown Belt and actually has a few sub wins, but all were at the beginning of his career back in 2009, he's more of play it safe Wrestle Boxer now.

I can't really think of any champions right now that are submission machines, GSP finished Bisping via RNC, but that's his first sub win in almost a decade iirc.

Thought I'd share this with you guys so if you ever wonder how BJJ's presence in MMA is rn(atleast effective offensive BJJ), you can see it's declined quite a bit. Defensive Jiu Jitsu, both from top and bottom seem to be the norm nowadays.

I heard once before that it takes less time to learn how to defend a sub alone than to learn that aswell as how to attack with one, which makes perfect sense, you're spending half the time to learn how to stop rather than how to attack and focusing on other aspects of MMA. Another thing is submissions, unless you're exceptionally good at them and at a higher skill level than your opponent, are risky, because they can give up a potentially dominant pin or osaekomi waza for the Judo enthusiasts out there :p.
This is a fantastic post/thread. Reminds me of my posts in the past when I actually gave a shit about the sport.

Also, this is pretty much the natural progression of a sport that is dominated by a Boxercise instructor and a couple of rich , roid heads for a decade...

Stand and Wang baby!!!!!

Just let me bang bro!!!
 

Wild

Zi Nazi
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
85,184
123,557
I do, whatcha looking for? I'll start with this one, about percent of fights ending by submission by year for the past ten years.

2017 so far - 18%
2016 - 18.3%
2015 - 18.6%
2014 - 19.3%
2013 - 18.1%
2012 - 20.5%
2011 - 19%
2010 - 24.1%
2009 - 23.3%
2008 - 26.9%
2007 - 32.2%

So, there has been a dropoff, as far as proportion of wins by submissions, over the past ten years. If the pace stays the same, 2017 will have the fewest percent of fights ending by submission in UFC history (by a small margin, less than 2013).

There are many possible reasons, the most likely of which is that modern fighters train in all aspects of MMA more equally and thoroughly than ever. They drill submission defense, so they're not as likely to fall into the armbar traps, etc. I don't know these numbers so I'm speaking purely anecdotally, but it seems like almost every fighter on the roster is a full time fighter - they remarked last night that Ryan Janes has a full time job, which was unusual for fighters these days. Eaty, sleepy, trainy.
 

Mishima Zaibatsu

TMMAC’s resident musician
Feb 27, 2016
2,969
3,523
As you said, it's easier to learn to defend yourself than it is to properly learn multiple ways to set up the same submission to the point that if someone defends one way you still have 3 more ways to attack and create an opening.


Also, as last night's TUF finale shows when there is a larger gap in skills and experience and less well rounded fighters you'll see more submissions.
One thing to support this is Mighty Mouse.

I think he might be, as a champion, the most frequent winner by submission since september of 2014, with 4 title defenses via sub. Given how weak 125 is, makes sense.

Even Werdum has only had two sub wins in the same time period.

The only one that comes close to MM is Cormier with 3 around the same time period of 2014 onward, but he had an RNC over the same opponent in Rumble.
 

Onetrickpony

Stay gold
Nov 21, 2016
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I may be wrong here but could it be that a lot of submissions leave you vulnerable / tired out if they are not successful? If you are winning the fight with control and striking why take the risk on something that could potentially have dire consequences on your night?
 

Brigsy

Well-Known Member
Jan 21, 2015
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The top side armbar has definitely taken a back seat as people are scared to miss and lose position.
 

Onetrickpony

Stay gold
Nov 21, 2016
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The top side armbar has definitely taken a back seat as people are scared to miss and lose position.
Like I said above, when your earnings are drastically affected by a misstep you have to decide if the juice is worth the squeeze.
 

Mishima Zaibatsu

TMMAC’s resident musician
Feb 27, 2016
2,969
3,523
Last night we had 1 submission on the FP Prelims.

8 (T)KO's.

4 went to decision(had 13 fights in total, an extra fight on the FP Prelims)