Society The Donald J. Trump Show - 4 more years editions

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Priziesthorse

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Dissect the exit polls into cool political analysis first.
I might do a full breakdown of Wisconsin. It's the most interesting result of the election imo. I don't think any polls ever had Trump winning there. Trade accounts for around 20% of the jobs in the state. More than 50% of Republicans said trade was hurting their jobs in Wisconsin primary exit polls. In the Wisconsin democrat primary Bernie won every county except for 1 to the TPP Gold Standard Queen. The exit polls in the general showed 50% of people in Wisconsin believed trade was bad for their jobs compared to only 1/3rd believing it helped create jobs. Obama did well with the white working class and rural voters in '08 and then lost them in '12. The writing was on the wall. How did they get it wrong?

Or we can chalk it up to good old fashioned racism!
 

Belobog

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Ben Carson, Secretary of Education:

Believes the Earth is 10,000 years old and creationism should be taught in the public school system.

“My own personal theory is that Joseph built the pyramids to store grain,” Carson said in a commencement speech at Andrews University. “Now all the archaeologists think that they were made for the pharaohs’ graves. But, you know, it would have to be something awfully big — when you stop and think about it, and I don’t think it’d just disappear over the course of time — to store that much grain.”


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrqShRhxJBM
 

Splinty

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Ben Carson, Secretary of Education:

Except he's not unless we're just going to start copying and pasting BuzzFeed headlines. So let's chronicle the ongoing of things.
Ben Carson has said he would take a cabinet position if you was really needed but would rather help from the outside.

And Trump may start a young Earth office that will definitely need him! ;)
 

Belobog

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It's strongly implied in his interviews that he endorsed Trump in exchange for some position. He couldn't come out and say it as that's illegal, so that's why we kept hearing "advisory capacity". We'll see what happens shortly.
 

Splinty

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It's strongly implied in his interviews that he endorsed Trump in exchange for some position. He couldn't come out and say it as that's illegal, so that's why we kept hearing "advisory capacity". We'll see what happens shortly.
Believe me I'm sure we are watching overlapping interviews. We are a bit obsessed around here.

I meant post election.
http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/758333?section=Politics&keywords=Trump-administration-job-Carson&year=2016&month=11&date=10&id=758333&aliaspath=/Manage/Articles/Template-Main&oref=www.google.iq

Nothing stopping either now and the emphasis is still on being an unofficial surrogate for flexibility reasons.
 

Belobog

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Some of the transition team picks have me a bit worried.

Jeffrey Eisenach, FCC

As a telecom industry consultant, has worked to help major cellular companies fight against regulations by the FCC that would mandate net neutrality which requires providers to give equal access to their networks to outside companies. Eisenach will be overseeing the rebuilding of the staff at the FCC.

Myron Ebell, EPA

He directs environmental and energy policy at Competitive Enterprise Institute, which receives funds from many players in the coal industry. He said he hoped whoever was elected president would “undo the E.P.A. power plant regulations and some of the other regulations that are very harmful to our economy.” Ebell leads the Cooler Heads Association, a loose-knit group that says it is “focused on dispelling the myths of global warming by exposing flawed economic, scientific, and risk analysis.”
 

Splinty

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Following the trends of those looking to keep themselves relevant in well-funded party positions, as well as undermine Trump's win in their own circles...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/opinion/clintons-substantial-popular-vote-win.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/12/opinion/bernie-sanders-where-the-democrats-go-from-here.html
Hillary Clinton got hundreds of thousands more votes than Donald Trump


The current popular item is to mention the popular vote. Hey guys, Trump didn't win the popular vote! Just a mere 1-2 weeks after a news cycle espousing ground games to take electoral votes, and 5 months after the same in the primary regarding the emphasis on delegates.

Do these people honestly believe that if the popular vote was the goal, either campaign would have run the same ground game? No, Hillary getting a higher popular vote (47.3 vs 47.8) doesn't mean anything other than her famed ground game was a joke. So much money spent and went on to lose solid Blue states.

What if Trump had 47.8 instead of 47.3? The articles would then write the closer reality...America was about to pick a President that left behind half of the voters and would need to figure out how to bring them into the fold. Quibbling that a non-target represents a theme in their mind is how they ignored and lost. There they go again...




The other myth is that Democrats just didn't show up.
Donald Trump didn't win the election

There is all this glossing together in that rag I linked there, in which they tie together the previous theme to culminate in a "Trump didn't really win, wink wink..."


There's a small truth to the idea of lessened Dem turnout due to Hillary, but only when compared to increased Dem turnout that bucks the actual trend. As many Democrats aren't showing up because they quit existing.

In a mere 8 years, the democrats have gone from 35->30% party identification. In a year in which Sanders excitement surely means something, Primary participation was down by 20%.

Republicans have grown a few percent in 8 years, bur remain lagging behind Dems. If all equal, GOP loses every time. But they already had their drop. And this year, Republicans dramatically increased their primary participation (and with it, their polled party identity).

Independents on the other hand have grown from 35%->40% and make up the largest plurality.
Party Affiliation

All of these articles make reference to raw numbers and they compare votes to Obama's 2008 excellent campaign. This of course ignores that the population has grown, and comparing raw numbers of voters being even will mean a drop in percents. They also continue to compare an anomaly for increased voter participation to make a case, ignoring longer timelines.

Democrats are disappearing, and in crucial states, they went to Trump enough -- Think PA.

Why Democrats in Western Pennsylvania Are Voting Trump

So how did Trump take Rust belt blue states?


View: https://twitter.com/2016PollGuru/status/791435370856534017


Just before the election, Michigan was polled, showing Trump leading with Independents (50%-18%).

Party identification is down. Independents are up and make up the largest voting block. Democrats thought they could rely on party loyalty from people that unhinged themselves from party politics, and they got blown the fuck out for it.

Anybody paying attention saw this coming. The polls were just too busy sampling Democrats at rates HIGHER than Obama in 2008. And now they are here to tell you how all those people just didn't show up. They were never there.



The two Parties are dying. And that is probably a good thing.
 

Splinty

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She is really eloquent in teasing out the very real policy issues and failed identity politics of the modern left. It is ironic that one group has been able to "own" the identity of 'inclusion' while simultaneously shouting down dissent under disgusting broad brushes.


I am a single mother who can’t afford health insurance under Obamacare. The president’s mortgage-loan modification program, “HOPE NOW,” didn’t help me. Tuesday, I drove into Virginia from my hometown of Morgantown, W.Va., where I see rural America and ordinary Americans, like me, still struggling to make ends meet, after eight years of the Obama administration.

Finally, as a liberal Muslim who has experienced, first-hand, Islamic extremism in this world, I have been opposed to the decision by President Obama and the Democratic Party to tap dance around the “Islam” in Islamic State. Of course, Trump’s rhetoric has been far more than indelicate and folks can have policy differences with his recommendations, but, to me, it has been exaggerated and demonized by the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, their media channels, such as Al Jazeera, and their proxies in the West, in a convenient distraction from the issue that most worries me as a human being on this earth: extremist Islam of the kind that has spilled blood from the hallways of the Taj Mahal hotel in Mumbai to the dance floor of the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Fla.

In mid-June, after the tragic shooting at Pulse, Trump tweeted out a message, delivered in his typical subtle style: “Is President Obama going to finally mention the words radical Islamic terrorism? If he doesn’t he should immediately resign in disgrace!”

Around then, on CNN’s “New Day,” Democratic candidate Clinton seemed to do the Obama dance, saying, “From my perspective, it matters what we do more than what we say. And it mattered we got bin Laden, not what name we called him. I have clearly said we — whether you call it radical jihadism or radical Islamism, I’m happy to say either. I think they mean the same thing.”

By mid-October, it was one Aug. 17, 2014, email from the WikiLeaks treasure trove of Clinton emails that poisoned the well for me. In it, Clinton told aide John Podesta: “We need to use our diplomatic and more traditional intelligence assets to bring pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are providing clandestine financial and logistic support to ISIL,” the politically correct name for the Islamic State, “and other radical Sunni groups in the region.”

The revelations of multimillion-dollar donations to the Clinton Foundation from Qatar and Saudi Arabia killed my support for Clinton. Yes, I want equal pay. No, I reject Trump’s “locker room” banter, the idea of a “wall” between the United States and Mexico and a plan to “ban” Muslims. But I trust the United States and don’t buy the political hyperbole — agenda-driven identity politics of its own — that demonized Trump and his supporters.

I gently tried to express my thoughts on Twitter but the “Pantsuit revolution” was like a steamroller to any nuanced discourse. If you supported Trump, you had to be a redneck.
 

Splinty

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Jeffrey Eisenach, FCC

As a telecom industry consultant, has worked to help major cellular companies fight against regulations by the FCC that would mandate net neutrality which requires providers to give equal access to their networks to outside companies. Eisenach will be overseeing the rebuilding of the staff at the FCC.
Without safeguards, I lean towards net neutrality.
But in the long run, its a bad idea. As baseline data becomes larger and larger, small percents will matter more. Forced dumb pipes is going to become a worse and worse idea as we rely on the cloud. You have a less sophisticated device? The delivering network needs to be more saavy and that might (probably will) look like breaking net neutrality.

Myron Ebell, EPA

He directs environmental and energy policy at Competitive Enterprise Institute, which receives funds from many players in the coal industry. He said he hoped whoever was elected president would “undo the E.P.A. power plant regulations and some of the other regulations that are very harmful to our economy.” Ebell leads the Cooler Heads Association, a loose-knit group that says it is “focused on dispelling the myths of global warming by exposing flawed economic, scientific, and risk analysis.”
I don't trust this guy. Not because of his positions, but because he has yet to give me cause to do so. He is a libertarian in his approach, so it will be interesting to see what that crowd thinks.

When I reviewed the people supporting man made climate change, I walk away with agreement that its real, with some questions about pace and these hard lines we are drawing up. I also walk away with the feeling that thousands of "climate scientists" are schmucks that are trying to make a name as an "expert". That sounds crazy, unless you have published research and realize the massive need to publish, whether anyone reads it or reviews it. Example of the whole industry Academics Write Papers Arguing Over How Many People Read (And Cite) Their Papers | Smart News | Smithsonian
So I'll err towards integrating climate change in decisions as a sort of pascals wager, but I'm unconvinced that "347238923 scientists agree!" anymore than I am "20 scientists agree".
 

Priziesthorse

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She is really eloquent in teasing out the very real policy issues and failed identity politics of the modern left. It is ironic that one group has been able to "own" the identity of 'inclusion' while simultaneously shouting down dissent under disgusting broad brushes.
 

Wild

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Some of the transition team picks have me a bit worried.

Jeffrey Eisenach, FCC

As a telecom industry consultant, has worked to help major cellular companies fight against regulations by the FCC that would mandate net neutrality which requires providers to give equal access to their networks to outside companies. Eisenach will be overseeing the rebuilding of the staff at the FCC.

Myron Ebell, EPA

He directs environmental and energy policy at Competitive Enterprise Institute, which receives funds from many players in the coal industry. He said he hoped whoever was elected president would “undo the E.P.A. power plant regulations and some of the other regulations that are very harmful to our economy.” Ebell leads the Cooler Heads Association, a loose-knit group that says it is “focused on dispelling the myths of global warming by exposing flawed economic, scientific, and risk analysis.”
I like it. Unconventional, not lifetime political hacks, extremely intelligent people is what is needed to get this country moving again.
 

Qat

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I like it. Unconventional, not lifetime political hacks, extremely intelligent people is what is needed to get this country moving again.
How do you know they are that?
And honestly the global warming thing is the one that has me most worried with Trump. After all, this is where real nasty and irreversible damage for every generation to come can be done.

I am also wondering why conservatives don't want to conserve the planet. :)
 

Splinty

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How do you know they are that?
And honestly the global warming thing is the one that has me most worried with Trump. After all, this is where real nasty and irreversible damage for every generation to come can be done.

I am also wondering why conservatives don't want to conserve the planet. :)

As I posted earlier, I will definitely make a Pascal's wager. And I think there's a lot of common ground where wind like here in West Texas or solar like in Arizona and New Mexico makes a lot of sense and it's an easy choice.

I'm also a very strong supporter of nuclear energy, and I believe that any long-term clean energy must use nuclear.

What is the largest problems recently with climate change is the ever-shifting goalpost. Things like the famed Mount Kilimanjaro snow caps to be gone as of last year showed no such thing. In fact with it came a rewriting of the deadline from 30 years to maybe a century or two.

So we have been asked over and over to make abrupt changes only to have the goal post moved back farther and farther.

So I think it's a fair concern and definitely a fair place to start finding common ground. If we're going to talk about things that are abrupt, we must consider people's livelihoods before we run the costs up on them with panic.
 

Qat

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As I posted earlier, I will definitely make a Pascal's wager. And I think there's a lot of common ground where wind like here in West Texas or solar like in Arizona and New Mexico makes a lot of sense and it's an easy choice.

I'm also a very strong supporter of nuclear energy, and I believe that any long-term clean energy must use nuclear.

What is the largest problems recently with climate change is the ever-shifting goalpost. Things like the famed Mount Kilimanjaro snow caps to be gone as of last year showed no such thing. In fact with it came a rewriting of the deadline from 30 years to maybe a century or two.

So we have been asked over and over to make abrupt changes only to have the goal post moved back farther and farther.

So I think it's a fair concern and definitely a fair place to start finding common ground. If we're going to talk about things that are abrupt, we must consider people's livelihoods before we run the costs up on them with panic.
You are not the prez tho. If somebody who is very connected to coal gets the responsibility for the energy sector, I'm not so sure its gonna be common ground.

Either way, I do think even if you do not believe in man made climate change, the change to clean energy in the foreseeable future is a good thing anyway for a multitude of other reasons. A reasonable effort in any way.
 

Priziesthorse

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Grand Master Splinty @Splint , I think i had an interesting convo tonight with my buddy who works for Goldman Sachs. I don't entirely remember cuz I am wasted right now. He was saying how they their public position was to support Hillary but they secretly wanted Trump to win bc they believe he will repeal the Volcker Rule. Just thought I would let you know. Vaya con dios.
 

Splinty

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You are not the prez tho. If somebody who is very connected to coal gets the responsibility for the energy sector, I'm not so sure its gonna be common ground.

Either way, I do think even if you do not believe in man made climate change, the change to clean energy in the foreseeable future is a good thing anyway for a multitude of other reasons. A reasonable effort in any way.
I was weighing in because you left a message about how conservatives don't walk to conserve the planet.
Compared to many things I assume I fall into that category in your mind. Though I think words like liberal and conservative or quickly losing their meaning as many of us pick and choose various historically liberal or conservative positions as independents.
 

Ted Williams' head

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What's this with the media saying Trump wasn't going to repeal Obama care?

I clicked on the link and watched the video and he clearly said he was going to repeal it and simultaneously replace it with something better.
 

Splinty

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What's this with the media saying Trump wasn't going to repeal Obama care?

I clicked on the link and watched the video and he clearly said he was going to repeal it and simultaneously replace it with something better.
This is where all of us as Trump supporters would have been happy to describe options if we were ever given an opportunity without being called racist. ;)

Since very early in his campaign he has said that he believes that letting children be on their parents Insurance until 26 and not blocking pre-existing conditions are good things.

Trump was recently quoted by the BBC,acknowledging again, his support of those two particular items (which btw surprisingly Republicans have been fine with for a very long time) and they ran a headline something like, " Trump: Obamacare key Provisions to remain" with a breaking news tag.

Since all the detractors had their fingers in their ears, the blogs and social media lit up that Trump was now flip-flopping and how all of us deplorables are going to be so disappointed. MAJOR U TURN, as one put it.


Just let them think they had their win. This is how we make America great again.


Tangentially related if you keep those two items there a number of implications being made in health policy and I'm not going to get into right now. But the short is Obamacare will go away as an individual insurance market and an insurance standardization tool. Various requirements and associated government-sponsored monoploies will get broken up. And that's probably about as far as things will go in the sense of repealing and replacing.
 

Left Hook Larry

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This is where all of us as Trump supporters would have been happy to describe options if we were ever given an opportunity without being called racist. ;)

Since very early in his campaign he has said that he believes that letting children be on their parents Insurance until 26 and not blocking pre-existing conditions are good things.

Trump was recently quoted by the BBC,acknowledging again, his support of those two particular items (which btw surprisingly Republicans have been fine with for a very long time) and they ran a headline something like, " Trump: Obamacare key Provisions to remain" with a breaking news tag.

Since all the detractors had their fingers in their ears, the blogs and social media lit up that Trump was now flip-flopping and how all of us deplorables are going to be so disappointed. MAJOR U TURN, as one put it.


Just let them think they had their win. This is how we make America great again.


Tangentially related if you keep those two items there a number of implications being made in health policy and I'm not going to get into right now. But the short is Obamacare will go away as an individual insurance market and an insurance standardization tool. Various requirements and associated government-sponsored monoploies will get broken up. And that's probably about as far as things will go in the sense of repealing and replacing.
And if Trump has to bend his views and reach and compromise to get bills and laws passed it will be published as "Trump flip flops on his promises" on the front page of CNN.

It will be a spicy 4 years and after year 2 I think we will begin to notice the changes of his policies.
 

Harold_Howard_The_Duck

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What's this with the media saying Trump wasn't going to repeal Obama care?

I clicked on the link and watched the video and he clearly said he was going to repeal it and simultaneously replace it with something better.

I think folks are saying that even if Trump does repeal Obamacare he is going to replace it with essentially the same thing just slightly different and called TrumpCare or some shit. (Due to his saying that no coverage exclusions for Pre-Existing Conditions are going to stay.)