Society UAE accomplishes what Trump couldn't

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Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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So this appears to be part of the grand plan that Trump has been trying via Kushner for years. I posted about it almost two years ago and @conor mcgregor nut hugger rainbowed me and told me I was sucking off Saudi for simply describing the black and white plan. I haven't forgotten how wrong he was each step of the way and like to highlight that for as long as I can, since I never get a win over him.

Saudi silent on this as well. They will give the pass. They can't be in on it with Mecca in their hands, but they will give a silent pass just Jerusalem and other Trump/Kushner moves.

This is all still super dangerous house of cards. MbS and Saudi are unstable allies since the former can't see a future of freedom and no bone saws.

Lest anyone think it was accidental that the UAE made this move indepedent of Trump or the greater Saudi/Iran proxy war.




 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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From NYT



Israel and the Emirates have long maintained a thinly veiled secret relationship over mutual interests, and the idea of formalizing it had come up several times over the past year. But the two sides essentially took it into the open after six weeks of indirect talks through Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser, culminating in Thursday’s phone call between Mr. Trump, Mr. Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates.

The deal gave Mr. Trump a much-welcomed breakthrough at a time when he has been struggling at home with a deadly pandemic and economic collapse amid a re-election contest that polls show he is losing. Both Israel and the Emirates, each for its own reasons, were happy to credit Mr. Trump to advance their positions in Washington, and the president plans to stage a celebratory White House signing ceremony in coming weeks.

The delicacy of the accord was on display after the announcement as the Emiratis maintained that it was contingent on Israel living up to its pledge to forgo annexation even as Mr. Netanyahu emphasized that it was only a temporary pause in deference to Mr. Trump. But both sides were playing to domestic constituencies to minimize concessions and officials expressed optimism that the deal would hold.


The rapprochement underscored the shifting political dynamics of a region where Sunni Arab states increasingly see Iran as a greater enemy than Israel and are less willing to condition relations on a resolution of the conflict with the Palestinians. The Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, has invested in clandestine relations with the Gulf States for years, and its director, Yossi Cohen, has met frequently with counterparts in the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Egypt, according to three intelligence officials.
Sultan Qaboos bin Said of Oman hosted Mr. Netanyahu for a state visit in 2018 that Mr. Cohen helped broker, even though the two nations have no diplomatic relations, and the tiny island kingdom of Bahrain hosted a White House-led conference last year meant to kick off Mr. Trump’s plan for Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Those two Gulf States could follow the Emirates in formalizing relations with Israel, but the big player remains Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s richest country and caretaker of the Islamic holy sites in Mecca and Medina. Analysts said they suspected that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, would like to take such a step but will refrain given conservative elements in his country.
“There is a new elite in Saudi Arabia that would wish to do the same, but they don’t have the same freedom of movement that a country like the Emirates has,” said Yasmine Farouk, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
When the Emirates began contemplating establishing formal relations a year ago, an adviser to Prince Mohammed counseled him that the keys would be to treat Israelis like equal neighbors and legitimate inhabitants of the Middle East, and therefore emphasize peace, but to make sure to ask for something in return on behalf of the Palestinians, a formula that ultimately informed its approach.
Mr. Cohen has made several secret trips in the past year to the Emirates seeking to enhance cooperation, and the outbreak of the coronavirus created an additional opening. The Mossad took responsibility for procurement of medical equipment that Israel lacked, and shipments arrived on secret flights from the Emirates.
A team to set up a lab was on the first public direct flight to Israel from the Emirates, although a plan to publicly declare cooperation in the battle against the pandemic in June proved too much too soon, as the Emirati government distanced itself shortly after Mr. Netanyahu announced it.
The impetus for Thursday’s agreement, however, can be traced back to around the same time, when Yousef al-Otaiba, the Emirates’ ambassador to the United States who has worked closely with the Trump administration, wrote an op-ed article in Israel’s popular Yediot Ahronot newspaper appealing directly to Israelis, in Hebrew, not to annex occupied territory.
“Annexation will definitely, and immediately, reverse all of the Israeli aspirations for improved security, economic and cultural ties with the Arab world and the United Arab Emirates,” Mr. al-Otaiba wrote at the time. The headline boiled it down to a clear trade-off: “It’s Either Annexation or Normalization.”
Mr. Kushner said that proved a turning point. “After that, we started a discussion with U.A.E. saying maybe this is something we can do,” he said. The Emiratis were open to the idea, he said, and so he then approached the Israelis, who likewise expressed a willingness to consider it. Talks then proceeded through Mr. Kushner and the Americans.
The negotiations were closely held in the White House, with only a limited number of officials aware. Meetings and Thursday’s phone call were either omitted from schedules or listed with obscure language, according to an administration official. Mr. Kushner said a preliminary agreement was reached a week ago and final details completed on Wednesday for what was called “the Abraham accord,” after the figure common to Judaism, Islam and Christianity.
Aaron David Miller, a longtime Middle East peace negotiator now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the agreement was “a win-win-win-lose” in that it provided diplomatic victories for the Emirates, Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump. “The big losers are the Palestinians who have watched the Arab world move closer to Israel seemingly rewarding Netanyahu for ignoring the Palestinians and undermining Palestinians interests,” he said.
Daoud Kuttab, a Palestinian journalist, argued that the deal was actually overhyped by all sides. “UAE was already normalizing relations & the annexation plan was already postponed,” he wrote on Twitter. “No one is a winner in this despite the hoopla that we will hear about for some time. UAE broke the Arab peace plan without getting anything of worth.”
In Israel, the development came at a perilous moment for Mr. Netanyahu, who is leading a fragile, fractious coalition government and faces trial on corruption charges. His annexation promise, made repeatedly throughout three recent elections, had left him in a box after Mr. Kushner opposed his moving forward without working through Mr. Trump’s official peace plan. But shortly after the agreement on Thursday, Mr. Netanyahu and his domestic rivals announced that they had made progress in coalition talks.
Martin S. Indyk, who served as special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations under President Barack Obama, said the deal gave both Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu a way to escape a political box of their own making with the president’s stalled peace plan and the prime minister’s politically problematic annexation drive.
“It gets Trump out of the corner he was in having agreed to legitimizing the settlements and then discovering that the Arab world had a problem with that,” he said. “Now he’s got something he can claim credit for.”
And he was quick to do so. Mr. Trump surrounded himself in the Oval Office by a large delegation of aides and officials who heaped effusive praise on him, and he jokingly said the agreement should be called the “Donald J. Trump Accord.” At a later briefing, Robert C. O’Brien, the White House national security adviser, even proclaimed that the president should win the Nobel Peace Prize.
As he has repeatedly in recent days, Mr. Trump predicted that he would next strike a quick agreement with Iran to curb its nuclear agreement if he were re-elected, although there was no sign that such a reconciliation was really imminent. “If I win the election,” he said, “I will have a deal with Iran within 30 days.
 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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That stupid ass plan will never work

I don't think so either. It's a LOT of moving parts and at its core is mohammed bonesaw salman. It is based on the faulty assumption that all Sunni countries will group think on their own or with US pressure. The former ignores long standing regional differences outside of religion. The latter will backfire as it always does. You can't longterm sustain alliances that don't want to be allied. Complex regional issues will undermine parts of it all and the plan is an all-at-once plan. None of it works if it doesn't all work.
You have to come to the table with more self-interest for each entity and I don't see that happening.
 
M

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I don't think so either. It's a LOT of moving parts and at its core is mohammed bonesaw salman. It is based on the faulty assumption that all Sunni countries will group think on their own or with US pressure. The former ignores long standing regional differences outside of religion. The latter will backfire as it always does. You can't longterm sustain alliances that don't want to be allied. Complex regional issues will undermine parts of it all and the plan is an all-at-once plan. None of it works if it doesn't all work.
You have to come to the table with more self-interest for each entity and I don't see that happening.
No one wants to say this because it's not politically correct, but I don't believe that lasting peace is possible with Arabs.
 
M

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I didn't use to think this way until I started to read up on all the deals they (the Palestinians) were been offered but ultimately rejected.

1999, 2009. They're not going to see offers like that from Bibi. They'll just see insulting shit like the deal foreign policy expert Jared Kushner took two years to put together.

And they had to know that failure to secure a deal would result in more Jewish settlers moving into areas of the West Bank. Or they had to at least know it was possible.

They've had amazing offers on the table. They choose the struggle every time.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
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I don't think so either. It's a LOT of moving parts and at its core is mohammed bonesaw salman. It is based on the faulty assumption that all Sunni countries will group think on their own or with US pressure. The former ignores long standing regional differences outside of religion. The latter will backfire as it always does. You can't longterm sustain alliances that don't want to be allied. Complex regional issues will undermine parts of it all and the plan is an all-at-once plan. None of it works if it doesn't all work.
You have to come to the table with more self-interest for each entity and I don't see that happening.
I think it's great that a big middle eastern economic is at least trying to play ball. Not that long ago this would have been thought impossible. Hopefully some momentum comes of this and whoever is in charge after the U.S. can continue working in that direction.
 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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I didn't use to think this way until I started to read up on all the deals they (the Palestinians) were been offered but ultimately rejected.

1999, 2009. They're not going to see offers like that from Bibi. They'll just see insulting shit like the deal foreign policy expert Jared Kushner took two years to put together.
Agreed.

But you said you can't have lasting peace with Arabs. That's a pretty open general statement I am trying to interpret.

The main problem in the arab world has been a series of events that empower minority groups over the majority, and of course that only holds together with brutal crushing abuse. And with it the whole shithole ® of North Africa to the middle east is 100 years behind us. But isn't because of them being Arab intrinsically. They haven't had an opportunity at reforms when you have artificial strong men propped up or knocked down.

If we had followed the King-Crane report and had them all be our little brothers into self rule after the fall of the ottoman empire, there's a good chance that region would have followed modernization like everyone does eventually...unless you use valence issues to gain control as a dictator.

Much in the same vein none of the Arab countries really care about the Palestinians. The whole proxy is just there to keep a boogie man to maintain dictatorial power and domestic populations angry at ze juice. This is the same politics that occur throughout the world in any number of other proxies that doesn't have anything to with Arab intrinsically. It's just strong man politics.