UFC 211 bets

[The Big Guy]

Theres alot of good fights on 211 and i was going to post some of my picks and to debate you faggots on yours.

There are some bets that i feel like are nearly guaranteed locks and all lines based on bovada

Frankie -150 defeats yair +120
Frankie is the ultimate gatekeeper and i dont think yair is ready for what frankies bringing. I expect takedowns and a UD. At these odds im tempted to empty my bank account on this fight. I also expect alot of money to come in on edgar soon

Joanna -185 defeats andrade

Since dropping to 115 andrade has looked great and ive won betting on her each time. Her last fight against hill is telling IMO on how the joanna fight will look but with a different result. I see andrade coming forward at first with big looping hooks that will be countered with hard straights and inside elbows. Fight stays upright with maybe a few early takedowns. As the fight wears on joanna starts walking down a bloody and tired andrade to take a late tko or UD. I think andrade is a poorer technical version of gadelha with less cardio, footwork, bjj, striking and wrestling.

Vick -400, Cejudo -450 and Aguilar +105

I think Vick finishes reyes. Reyes hasnt beaten anyone in the ufc that has a winning ufc record. Vick has beaten everyone except top 10 beneil dariush. Odds are not worth it now but not bad to add to a parlay or check the inside the distance prop bets when they are released.

Sergio pettis like his older brother needs room to strike coming from a tae kwon do style. Thats something hes probably not going to get against the gold medal winner. Cejudo is good enough a striker to not get starched on the feet and has the power to hurt sergios suspect chin but his real strength will be his grappling. He strikes to set up takedowns and wins a UD 30-27 x3

Aguilar has beaten the kind of fighters that courtney casey hasn't. While aguilar has wins over names like magana x2, ezparza, fujii x2 its the opposite for casey who has losses from midlevel fighters such as see hoo ham, pearl gonzalez, jojo calderwood. Both have lost to claudia gadelha. I think casey has a chance to maybe pull it off early as she always goes for the finish but aguilar has proven to be very durable only being finished by sub in her pro debut by rnc. While casey if she doesnt get a early finish tends to lose a dec. I see aguilar taking a 29-28 or possibly even a 30-27 from the journeymen casey.

Oh yea and Aguilar is a +105 underdog. So thats a nice bet especially when the prop bets come out for aguilar by decision.

I personally bet all these and mixed in a bunch of parlays with some boxing picks.
Also just frankie and joanna together is +157

And for the satanists out there a parlay with edgar,vick,aguilar,joanna,cejudo 10$ nets you 66.59$ at +666

 

[Robbie Hart]

Pettis has no chance against cejudo, zero chance. Safe bet

 

[The Big Guy]

Pettis has no chance against cejudo, zero chance. Safe bet

I agree but the odds arent the type i play with but ill parlay happily or wait until theres a prop bet by dec

 

[Gay For Longo]

Tempted to do that parlay, but man would I feel dirty putting money on having to cheer for a TLI guy

 

[The Big Guy]

Thats why its a +666 bet. Your playing with the devil

 

[Gay For Longo]

I agree but the odds arent the type i play with but ill parlay happily or wait until theres a prop bet by dec

Bet365 has cejudo Dec @ -163

 

[HEATH VON DOOM]

I will take your money on the Frankie-Yair fight.

 

[The Big Guy]

I will take your money on the Frankie-Yair fight.

You got yair?

 

[HEATH VON DOOM]

You got yair?

Yes whats the terms

 

[The Big Guy]

Yes whats the terms

I already did online bets. You would get better odds just doing it on a site. But i wont hesitate to SN bet you 1-6 months. im not into paypal

 

[LurkenLikaGherkin]

IMO Yair was the right side of that bet at +155. Frankie seems to be slowing down with age. To get the TDs, he's going to need a lot of speed, especially given the crazy reach/length difference. Made a larger bet (for my current bet size) on Yair at +155, corrected it with a partial scalp (and normal sized bet, that works out to a total bet of like +170), when Frankie hit -120 or -130. Frankie's rightly the fave, probably, but would rather play Yair as significant dog. Betting is mostly about odds, which side's odds seem the most off compared to "true odds" (which are an abstraction).

No way would I play Vick at more than -220 or so (personally I would skip at -220 -- IMO the true odds are something like -180/+180). Reyes' striking & mental game are too on point, and Vick has a tendency to leave his chin out there to get blasted, especially after a round passes. It was better in his last fight, but it's pretty tough to permanently fix something like that in a guy who has been exiting and freezing with his chin up for his whole career. If Vick didn't have a big reach advantage in most/all of his fights, he'd probably have been KO'ed at least a couple of additional times. IMO Vick's rightly the fave, especially with the high ability to finish by sub via the clinch or top or bottom ground, but if they have a kickboxing match, without any grappling threat (not the case, but just for the sake of argument), IMO Reyes is a big favorite for his chin to hold up & Vick's to shatter. Have Reyes small here. Don't like it, especially since I bought too early, thinking the betting would go the other way, but IMO the line is off on the Reyes side. Again, IMO Vick is rightly the fave, but over 1000 bets Reyes at +325 (5dimes, right now) is the "+EV" side.

Antigulov looked to me like the biggest lock on the card, but again paying over -300 for any UFC match-up is a tall order.

Would've liked to play Benitez at -130, Alvarez at +130, Casey at +100, but the odds haven't been there yet. Looking to get Maia at +135 if he gets there in the late betting. If anybody wants to offer any of those prices, I'm in.

 

[LurkenLikaGherkin]

Knight/Skelly is interesting. If you were pretty sure Knight doesn't get outwrestled or subbed by Skelly, Knight would be a good play. Last time I looked at Knight, I felt like I couldn't get a really good read on how good his grappling really is.

To add: if Andrade was training in the US, where USADA oversight would be different than when she's in Brasil, I'd have unloaded a third of my total account balance on Joanna when she opened at -120. With Joanna in the US, Andrade in Brasil, I made a bigger bet (about 10% of balance, something like that) on Joanna when she opened, then turned it into a small scalp (where I can't lose if Andrade wins, and win tiny if Joanna wins) when Andrade hit +145. Andrade being in Brasil makes this a pick-em, imo.

Flipside: Training at ATT, Jr is looking physically like his old self in the Embedded ep's (as opposed to sheepish, doughy JDS that fought Overeem right on the heels of USADA era beginning after people were getting caught). In Ep 1, Stipe looks like his right hand is not getting extension -- his punches looks short. Should be a war.

UFC® FIGHT PASS™ -UFC 211 Embedded: Vlog Series - Episode 2

 

[LurkenLikaGherkin]

Just thought of this...maybe worth sharing. I looked at Sherman/Coulter (Coulter's getting money right now) and hated it, didn't play it. IMO, if Sherman mixes it up, looks to clinch and get a takedown off Coulter committing to big punches (his main weapon), he probably tools Sherman in top control -- Sherman showed good, heavy, top control in some past fights, but interviews with Sherman seemed to show him planning to stand and bang it out. Understandable, after Sherman's last, but struck me as exactly the wrong approach.

Would have taken Sherman as moderate fave if it looked like he planned to fight his best strategic fight vs Coulter, but skipped it because it doesn't seem like he's training to destroy Coulter on the ground. You'd think coming from Jackson's, they would have planned the safest plan, but for some reason (can't remember what) I got the impression Jackson's isn't real committed to Sherman. Could be totally wrong, of course, in that impression.

Who knows, Sherman's fight plan hints & comments could be misinformation, but Sherman didn't come off as that kind of clever guy. He's a tough banger, his comments were in line with that.

Standing, good chance Coulter gets the KO. If Sherman does wrestle, and can get the clinch, there's no reason to think Coulter survives more than a round or two of that.

Hated it for that reason. Didn't play, probably won't.

 

[SCADA]

Pettis has no chance against cejudo, zero chance. Safe bet

Wrestlefuk 101

 

[LurkenLikaGherkin]

Lines are moving on 5dimes. Someone(s) seems to have a strong opinion on Jotko vs Branch, with steady money on Jotko (imo Branch is underrated). Branch & Barzola looked to get some significant money earlier today, with the lines moving significantly, then later Jotko appeared to get more money to reset the line movement to what it had been. Reads to me like someone really likes Jotko and is buying him up at prices better than -150 (current price).

Yair, Aguilar, Coulter & Barzola appear to be getting late money based on line changes.

 

[LurkenLikaGherkin]

Huh...kinda surprising...the lines for the Chael subgrappling EBI-rules event have not moved at all. Maybe MMA bettors on 5d don't bet grappling events.

I would think true odds on Miao-roids would be at least -600, with the rule set. Maybe some potential bettors are weirded out by Mendez having tapped Jeff Glover way-back-whenever. Miao is next-gen over Glover, and I just watched the highlight reel of Mendez/Glover, but it looks like Mendez beat Glover by not engaging, then getting the choke on a gassed Glover. Miao is on a higher level, both as a competitor (unlikely to gas) and technically.

 

[Rambo John J]

whoa dude you go deep

I need to look up most of what you typed...like a different language I guess

Feel like I know you..?

 

[LurkenLikaGherkin]

5d has not yet hung the reduced lines, btw.

Looks like Joanna and Coulter are getting significant late money. Joanna/Andrade is -185/+160 now, after hanging out around -150/-130 for days.

Had to switch the JJ/Andrade scalp to the Andrade side with the change, and given Joanna breaking form as far as playing the mental game.

 

[Wild]

Knight/Skelly is interesting. If you were pretty sure Knight doesn't get outwrestled or subbed by Skelly, Knight would be a good play. Last time I looked at Knight, I felt like I couldn't get a really good read on how good his grappling really is.

To add: if Andrade was training in the US, where USADA oversight would be different than when she's in Brasil, I'd have unloaded a third of my total account balance on Joanna when she opened at -120. With Joanna in the US, Andrade in Brasil, I made a bigger bet (about 10% of balance, something like that) on Joanna when she opened, then turned it into a small scalp (where I can't lose if Andrade wins, and win tiny if Joanna wins) when Andrade hit +145. Andrade being in Brasil makes this a pick-em, imo.

Flipside: Training at ATT, Jr is looking physically like his old self in the Embedded ep's (as opposed to sheepish, doughy JDS that fought Overeem right on the heels of USADA era beginning after people were getting caught). In Ep 1, Stipe looks like his right hand is not getting extension -- his punches looks short. Should be a war.

UFC® FIGHT PASS™ -UFC 211 Embedded: Vlog Series - Episode 2

Jason's got some very slick BJJ. I wouldn't worry about him getting subbed.

 

[Rambo John J]

5d has not yet hung the reduced lines, btw.

Looks like Joanna and Coulter are getting significant late money. Joanna/Andrade is -185/+160 now, after hanging out around -150/-130 for days.

Had to switch the JJ/Andrade scalp to the Andrade side with the change, and given Joanna breaking form as far as playing the mental game.

I used to bet 5 dimes a lot...they paid out super slow one time when I won big though, so I stopped dealing with them.

Really enjoyed the wacky lines on obscure events though

 

[LurkenLikaGherkin]

Jason's got some very slick BJJ. I wouldn't worry about him getting subbed.

Some good JJ could happen, in that case. Skelly doesn't wrestle or strike A-level, and IMO Knight has an edge over him standing. Will be cool to see Skelly trying to go back to early form, attacking legs and playing sick sub game.

 

[LurkenLikaGherkin]

I used to bet 5 dimes a lot...they paid out super slow one time when I won big though, so I stopped dealing with them.

Really enjoyed the wacky lines on obscure events though

All offshore stuff is run by criminals. Sounds like a controversial statement, but is just true on 2 levels (a) if they come the to US, they will be arrested, and (b) organized crime is in the game. If organized crime is in the game, how easy can it be to survive in the game without actually having backing/protection, minimum, from organized crime?

I like betting the fights because it forces me to handicap/analyze with something at stake, which makes you better at whatever it is you're doing. Like, you can play pool all your life, but you're not going to get good at it like you would if you were betting on it the whole time, because the level of trying is different.

 

[Gay For Longo]

Huh...kinda surprising...the lines for the Chael subgrappling EBI-rules event have not moved at all. Maybe MMA bettors on 5d don't bet grappling events.

I would think true odds on Miao-roids would be at least -600, with the rule set. Maybe some potential bettors are weirded out by Mendez having tapped Jeff Glover way-back-whenever. Miao is next-gen over Glover, and I just watched the highlight reel of Mendez/Glover, but it looks like Mendez beat Glover by not engaging, then getting the choke on a gassed Glover. Miao is on a higher level, both as a competitor (unlikely to gas) and technically.

Miao wins that match all day and twice on Sunday
Is there a draw option for the danis/shields match?

 

[LurkenLikaGherkin]

Also, re this thread, I've always followed what money is doing, going back to playing horses. 20 years ago, following the money at small/medium tracks was the way to win. You could disregard the racing form altogether if you had following the money wired.

I'm puzzling through the problem of betting faves in MMA, so I'm always curious to try and gain some kind of understanding of what "sharps" are up to, even with the reality that it's hard to differentiate sharp money from crowd money. Probably playing the horses via money movement is of some use there.

 

[Gay For Longo]

I used to bet 5 dimes a lot...they paid out super slow one time when I won big though, so I stopped dealing with them.

Really enjoyed the wacky lines on obscure events though

Exact reason I switched to bet365
I do still bet at 5dimes from time to time but not often