UFC Fight Night 110: Live Discussion - June 10, 2017

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Wild

Zi Nazi
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Dec 31, 2014
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Complete Results:

Mark Hunt def. Derrick Lewis via TKO at 3:51 of Round 4
Derek Brunson def. Daniel Kelly via KO (punch) at 1:16 of R1
Dan Hooker def. Ross Pearson via KO (knee) at 3:02 of Round 2
Ion Cutelaba def. Henrique da Silva via KO (Punches), Round 1 - 0:22
Ben Nguyen def. Tim Elliott via submission (rear-naked choke). Rd. 1, 0:49
Alexander Volkanovski def. Mizuto Hirota via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Vinc Pichel def. Damien Brown via KO (punches) at 3:37 of R1
Luke Jumeau def. Dominique Steele via Unanimous Decision (29-28,29-28,29-28)
John Moraga def. Ashkan Mokhtarian via unanimous decision (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)
Zak Ottow def. Kiichi Kunimoto via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
J.J. Aldrich def. Chanmi Jeon via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27
 
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LurkenLikaGherkin

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This card sucks outside of the main event
I've only looked at the first three mains and the Aldrich, but those are all close fights where it's hard to say how it plays out -- i.e. both sides can win, have ways to win, and/or the main advantage of one guy/gal is balanced by a countering strength of the other. Shelby is making tough fights for people, where they have to do more than they did in the past to win, for the most part.

Some sharp is messing up betting life online. Someone (or some ones) hit Aldrich's side hard three times and moved the line like 100 points within an hour of the lines going up on 5d this morning. This has been the case on almost all the soft lines for several cards running.
 

LurkenLikaGherkin

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Examples:

Hunt vs Lewis: Lewis's most dangerous standing strike is his uppercut -- especially an Anthony Johnson style uppercut holding opponent's head, and Hunt constantly drops his head into uppercut target territory when he gets in close, but Lewis can't throw that uppercut freely without being open to a night-night counter right hook, which Hunt can hit him with in close with his eyes closed. Lewis probably pounds Hunt out if he gets a single takedown, but Hunt has been fighting guys that need to take him down his whole career.

Brunson vs Kelly: Brunson is more athletic, but hasn't shown he can fight well at all backing up, and he doesn't really move a lot laterally lately. Kelly comes with constant pressure, cutting off the "ring" well & with phenomenal cardio for his age. To beat Kelly, Brunson has to either get lucky with a KO prior to getting tired from the pressure, or come up with something he hasn't shown in the past. Kelly has to overcome more athletecism, handspeed, power and wrestling threat than he's faced lately (Brunson is a bigger wrestling threat than old-now Rashad) and his chin has to hold up, because with the gap in speed he's going to take some big shots, even if he can get Brunson backpeddling he's just very hittable for anybody quick. They both have to overcome additional challenges to what they've faced in recent fights to win.

Etc.
 

Limpy

Banned
Oct 20, 2015
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I'd rather one event every 4-5 weeks that is stacked than a 3 totally shitty UFC events a month with the odd good card sprinkled in. I know, first world problems, but I'm at the point where I couldn't give a fuck about most events anymore.

How do you grow the sport and get new eyes on it when hardcores like us don't know who 75% of these dudes are? I used to like watching all of the fights but not any more, I got cat shit to do.
 

LurkenLikaGherkin

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If you handicap & bet all the fights where you like a side at the price offered, you'll never be bored on any card. I don't bet for pleasure (to the best of my knowledge of myself), but for the kick of handicapping with something on the line. On every fight I look at for betting, I'm always curious to see how the actual match-up plays out. You also realize how much better the non-name fights are, in advance of the card, when you're looking more closely at match-ups.

I find the no-name fights more exciting than the name fights, because there're more mysteries to be solved, other than what kind of fight plan a known guy will end up trying to execute. You already basically know how Mark Hunt's going to fight. Newcomers jumping up in competition are often more full of surprises, good (Norwonderboy, who did better than I would have expected after facing only nobodies and poor level fighters) and bad (Marlon Moraes who, it turned out, couldn't fight like himself when he jumped up in class).

A tout-tip for the bettors: imo Kiichi is not a +245 dog against Otto if he can perform as in the past (throwing out the cardio fail vs Magny at altitude -- you can also throw that one out for looking at Otto because the biggest problem for Kiichi vs Magny turned out to be the reach, the athletecism/speed, and Magny's wrestling). Otto was announced as a BJJ black belt (edit: brown belt...typo), but he showed very little off his back against Moraes (including not much ability to get up), and his wrestling is not good. His striking is technically more varied (lots of switching) than you normally see from fighters of his overall striking level (mediocre), but not that much better than Kiichi, and he could easily end up losing the fight in the clinch and via being taken down from the clinch (Kiichi is a solid clincher & has enough offensive wrestling to win the fight as long as Otto can't prevent the clinch. Otto did manage to avoid tie ups for much of his fight against Moraes, but was taken down easily when Moraes could get any kind of clinch. I found Kiichi's facebook & his (Cobra Kai, Osaka Japan) club's web pages, and he looks like he's in the shape he was in for his last two.
 
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LurkenLikaGherkin

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Link to one of the .jp sites with some recent coverage of Kiichi: Google Translate

His facebook's under the English spelling of his name. Easy to find via the Cobra Kai (Osaka) facebook page.
 

Rambo John J

Eats things that would make a Billy Goat Puke
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Really? I thought he was rather boring?

I may not have seen him fight...
He is like a broken injured old man terminator...willpower type guy...has a horrible knee that needs surgery but he just is gonna go until he loses before fixing it...inspiring for my 40 year old ass
 

Jesus X

4 drink minimum.
Sep 7, 2015
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This should be a good card a lot of these guys like to go toe to toe blow for blow.
 

Onetrickpony

Stay gold
Nov 21, 2016
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I'd rather one event every 4-5 weeks that is stacked than a 3 totally shitty UFC events a month with the odd good card sprinkled in. I know, first world problems, but I'm at the point where I couldn't give a fuck about most events anymore.

How do you grow the sport and get new eyes on it when hardcores like us don't know who 75% of these dudes are? I used to like watching all of the fights but not any more, I got cat shit to do.


Really? I thought he was rather boring?

I may not have seen him fight...
Recently fought shad.

 

LurkenLikaGherkin

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My picks for the full card (the ones I didn't offer are already played -- the dogs -- or are unplayable as expensive favorites):

Main Card (FS1 @ 10 p.m. ET)
Derrick Lewis vs Mark Hunt (will not be surprised if Hunt wins)
Derek Brunson vs Daniel Kelly (will not be surprised if Kelly wins)
Dan Hooker vs Ross Pearson (will not be surprised if Pearson wins)
Ion Cutelaba vs Henrique da Silva (will be shocked if Henrique wins, but Cutelaba looks hittable with OH right)
Tim Elliott vs Ben Nguyen (would probably go with Nguyen at the current odds if not for the size difference)

Preliminary Card (FS1 @ 8 p.m. ET)
Mizuto Hirota vs Alex Volkanovski (Good luck beating Manny Gamburyan v2.0, non-midgety, Hirota)
Damien Brown vs Vinc Pichel (layoff could be a problem for Pichel, so could aging)
Luke Jumeau vs Dominique Steele (will not be surprised if Jumeau wins)
Ashkan Mokhtarian vs John Moraga (no pick, no idea how Mokhtarian will look)
Kiichi Kunimoto vs Zak Ottow (mainly because Kunimoto is big dog, and imo should be small dog)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass @ 7 p.m. ET)
J.J. Aldrich vs Chan-Mi Jeon (the little video I could find of Jeon showed total absolute cluelessness in the clinch)
Thibault Gouti vs Dong Hyun Kim (Gouti could be better than he's shown, but his chin probably isn't, and they will both be taking big shots at some point unless Gouti fights cautiously -- could be FON)

Volkanovski and Cutelaba look like true odds -400 or better to me, but I can't bring myself to pay -400 on anybody with a live opponent at this level...maybe not at any level (Steve Berger effect) except when its some of the mismatches like Cyborg's had.
 
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teamquestnorth

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LurkenLikaGherkin

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Ill think about this
Things could change after weigh-ins if the lines move a lot.

I'm kind of waiting for the 5d lines to improve on Hooker, Aldrich & Kim -- fore & aft might get better after weigh-ins, but Aldrich probably won't unless the Korean chick comes in magically ripped all of a sudden.