Well here we are, the absolute sickest card in UFC history. After all the crap the UFC and it's fans have went through over the past few days the time is finally upon us. I'm so excited I can barely contain myself. With that being said I'm really going to do my best to predict this card as best I can but on a night like this absolutely anything is possible. After going nearly 70% on thursday and having a terrible friday night pick wise I expect this card to pick up my average. I'd like you to know for this card because we pretty much know everyone in depth on this card my breakdowns are going to be a little different so please drop a comment and tell me what you think. So without any more jibber jabber, lets get right into it!
Jim Miller 25-8 vs Takanori Gomi 35-11
What a great fight for two guys coming into the twilight of their careers. Gomi is always down to put on a great show, has accolades beyond most fighters dreams, and is an elite martial artist that will most likely one day take his place in the Hall of Fame. Miller has been a staple of some great battles over the years as well and is a great martial artist in his own right. Both guys have lost 3 of their last 4 fights and have definitely shown a decline in their abilities to keep up with middle tier talent over the past couple of years. Miller's best chance is his ground game but I don't think Gomi allows it to go there. I see Gomi stuffing the takedown and unloading on Miller. Unfortinatley for Gomi and his knockout power, Miller is one hard dude to put away.
Pick: Takanori Gomi via Unanimous Decision
Gegard Mousasi 38-6-2 vs Thiago Santos 13-3
Santos gets a giant leap in competition here and is facing a Mousasi who feels he is ready to fight the champion. Thats a scary Mousasi, and he's dangerous enough without that momentum behind him. Mousasi now goes into this fight not only to further his march towards an eventual title shot, but also to show Dana that he picked the wrong guy to face DC on 2 days notice. Santos is a dangerous guy but Mousasi is way to smart to let Santos land the big shot. Anything can happen here but I see Mousasi with a spectacular first round stoppage.
Pick: Gegard Mousasi via 1st Round KO/TKO
Diego Sanchez 28-8 vs Joe Lauzon 25-12
The Farmer Punching Brawler vs The Bonus King. Ready for a war? These two guys are going to go out looking to take fight of the night away from the big guys for sure! I expect Lauzon to use technique to thwart Sanchez's "line in the sand" type fighting. If Diego decides to take the fight to the ground Lauzon may wrap up a limb and take this fight by submission but I expect it to be a striking battle. One that will test both mens chins and eventually have the more technical fighter with his hand raised. Side note, when preparing for Diego Sanchez as long as you don't stand directly in front of him, You'll be fine.
Pick: Joe Lauzon via Unanimous Decision
Sage Northcutt 7-1 vs Enrique Marin 9-3
I know very little about Marin, looking at his previous fights he loves the choke though and obviously as seen with his fight against Barbarena, Northcutt's problem is definitely his ground game. I expect him to come well prepared to defend the choke this time though and dominate this fight. Quickly.
Pick: Sage Northcutt via 1st Round KO/TKO
TJ Dillashaw 13-3 vs Raphael Assuncao 23-4
What a fight! Their first fight in 2013 was such a great spectacle and for the UFC to give Dillashaw a chance to avenge his split decision loss on such an iconic event is so awesome for all the fans who missed this tango the first time around. The one thing I notice here though is that Dillashaw is a way better fighter than he was when he lost to Assuncao the first time and after losing his title in a crazy fight with Dominic Cruz he is going to be out for blood. I doubt we will see the Dillashaw that takes his time here. Expect Dillashaw to start fast and try to end Assuncao's night early. Oddly enough thats exactly what I expect to happen.
Pick: TJ Dillashaw via 1st Round KO/TKO
Johny Hendricks 17-4 vs Kelvin Gastelum 12-2
Oh Hendricks. tsk tsk tsk. Why did you miss weight man? This was supposed to be your comeback fight after getting absolutely smashed by the Wonderboy. Full expect to see Hendricks further decline here. You can't expect to have such a problem with your weight and stay employed and in the top tier of fighters in your division. Gastelum stays away from the big overhand and uses his cardio to pick Hendricks apart.
Pick: Kelvin Gastelum via Unanimous Decision
Cat Zingano 9-1 vs Julianna Pena 8-2
I don't know what to say here. I can't quite see why the majority of people have picked Zingano to win this fight? Pena tore through the TUF house and was one of the hottest prospects in MMA before tearing her knee apart. Now when she comes back from injury she wins a bonus and then a hard fought decision and everyone is doubting her with a little step up in talent? Pena is dangerous and the one serious up and comer to look out for. I expect her to prove it at UFC 200.
Pick: Julianna Pena via Unanimous Decision
Cain Velasquez 13-2 vs Travis Browne 18-3-1
When Cain is healthy and not gassed due to high altitude there aren't too many guys who can beat him. Browne operates nearly the same way as one of his 3 losses was due to injury. Velasquez's output is just too much for Browne to handle here. I see him making it out of the first but notfar past that.
Pick: Cain Velasquez via 2nd Round KO/TKO
Jose Aldo 25-2 vs Frankie Edgar 19-4-1
My personal opinion is that Edgar is the one guy in the 145 pound division that is a nightmare for McGregor. I feel like a perfect Frankie Edgar beats Conor McGregor 9/10 times. With that being said, that doesn't mean that Aldo isn't a nightmare of a matchup for our boy Edgar. Edgar needs to not allow Aldo to fire off those ridiculous leg kicks that slow all of his opponents down so much. If Frankie can do that he can win this fight. Unless Aldo has went punchy I don't see Edgar knocking him out, but I do see a clear cut decision victory for him. (Unless the same judges who judged his first fight vs Henderson and Aldo are judging) Edgar needs to make it apparent to the judges in this one because he gets robbed too often. Baring a nightmare judging fiasco, Edgar takes home the belt.
Pick: Frankie Edgar via Unanimous Decision
Daniel Cormier 17-1 vs Anderson Silva 33-7
I could sit here with a blank screen forever on this fight. Why? Because I don't wanna talk about it. Why? Because my number 1 rule to betting MMA is to NEVER EVER bet against Anderson Silva. Silva is coming off of a very controversial loss to Bisping and is only a short amount of time removed from serious surgery. Nearly everyone expects Cormier to absolutely dominate him but I can't bring myself to see that happening. It's not just emotions people I honestly can't see DC doing what he did to Hendo to Silva. I'm just going to ride the general consensus here but honestly, if your betting STAY AWAY FROM THIS FIGHT!
Pick: Daniel Cormier via 1st Round KO/TKO
Brock Lesnar 5-3 vs Mark Hunt 12-10-1
I'm sure you've heard me say that when it comes to heavyweights you can basically flip a coin. Now I'm a huge wrestling fan and have been for over 20 years. Everyone expects Hunt to land that one big shot and for Lesnar to drop immediatley. It's no secret that Lesnar doesn't like to get hit but will he really drop from the first punch? We'll have to see. Either way its going to be extremely entertaining for that first exchange.
Pick: Mark Hunt via 1st Round KO/TKO
Miesha Tate 18-5 vs Amanda Nunes 12-4
Everyone is betting Tate by sub so hard and its laughable. Nunes is a legit black belt with credentials beyond reach. If Tate's gameplan is to take Nunes down shes going to be in a world of trouble. Honestly I see this one going to the challenger. Miesha had a terrible weight cut to the point where she almost missed weight and she looked terrible. Even with the extra time to rehydrate I still think that takes a serious toll on her body in this fight. I expect Amanda to end her in the second or third round.
Pick: Amanda Nunes via 3rd Round KO/TKO
Well there are my picks guys! I really hope you enjoyed reading and I can't wait to discuss all of this with you! Happy watching!
Jim Miller 25-8 vs Takanori Gomi 35-11
What a great fight for two guys coming into the twilight of their careers. Gomi is always down to put on a great show, has accolades beyond most fighters dreams, and is an elite martial artist that will most likely one day take his place in the Hall of Fame. Miller has been a staple of some great battles over the years as well and is a great martial artist in his own right. Both guys have lost 3 of their last 4 fights and have definitely shown a decline in their abilities to keep up with middle tier talent over the past couple of years. Miller's best chance is his ground game but I don't think Gomi allows it to go there. I see Gomi stuffing the takedown and unloading on Miller. Unfortinatley for Gomi and his knockout power, Miller is one hard dude to put away.
Pick: Takanori Gomi via Unanimous Decision
Gegard Mousasi 38-6-2 vs Thiago Santos 13-3
Santos gets a giant leap in competition here and is facing a Mousasi who feels he is ready to fight the champion. Thats a scary Mousasi, and he's dangerous enough without that momentum behind him. Mousasi now goes into this fight not only to further his march towards an eventual title shot, but also to show Dana that he picked the wrong guy to face DC on 2 days notice. Santos is a dangerous guy but Mousasi is way to smart to let Santos land the big shot. Anything can happen here but I see Mousasi with a spectacular first round stoppage.
Pick: Gegard Mousasi via 1st Round KO/TKO
Diego Sanchez 28-8 vs Joe Lauzon 25-12
The Farmer Punching Brawler vs The Bonus King. Ready for a war? These two guys are going to go out looking to take fight of the night away from the big guys for sure! I expect Lauzon to use technique to thwart Sanchez's "line in the sand" type fighting. If Diego decides to take the fight to the ground Lauzon may wrap up a limb and take this fight by submission but I expect it to be a striking battle. One that will test both mens chins and eventually have the more technical fighter with his hand raised. Side note, when preparing for Diego Sanchez as long as you don't stand directly in front of him, You'll be fine.
Pick: Joe Lauzon via Unanimous Decision
Sage Northcutt 7-1 vs Enrique Marin 9-3
I know very little about Marin, looking at his previous fights he loves the choke though and obviously as seen with his fight against Barbarena, Northcutt's problem is definitely his ground game. I expect him to come well prepared to defend the choke this time though and dominate this fight. Quickly.
Pick: Sage Northcutt via 1st Round KO/TKO
TJ Dillashaw 13-3 vs Raphael Assuncao 23-4
What a fight! Their first fight in 2013 was such a great spectacle and for the UFC to give Dillashaw a chance to avenge his split decision loss on such an iconic event is so awesome for all the fans who missed this tango the first time around. The one thing I notice here though is that Dillashaw is a way better fighter than he was when he lost to Assuncao the first time and after losing his title in a crazy fight with Dominic Cruz he is going to be out for blood. I doubt we will see the Dillashaw that takes his time here. Expect Dillashaw to start fast and try to end Assuncao's night early. Oddly enough thats exactly what I expect to happen.
Pick: TJ Dillashaw via 1st Round KO/TKO
Johny Hendricks 17-4 vs Kelvin Gastelum 12-2
Oh Hendricks. tsk tsk tsk. Why did you miss weight man? This was supposed to be your comeback fight after getting absolutely smashed by the Wonderboy. Full expect to see Hendricks further decline here. You can't expect to have such a problem with your weight and stay employed and in the top tier of fighters in your division. Gastelum stays away from the big overhand and uses his cardio to pick Hendricks apart.
Pick: Kelvin Gastelum via Unanimous Decision
Cat Zingano 9-1 vs Julianna Pena 8-2
I don't know what to say here. I can't quite see why the majority of people have picked Zingano to win this fight? Pena tore through the TUF house and was one of the hottest prospects in MMA before tearing her knee apart. Now when she comes back from injury she wins a bonus and then a hard fought decision and everyone is doubting her with a little step up in talent? Pena is dangerous and the one serious up and comer to look out for. I expect her to prove it at UFC 200.
Pick: Julianna Pena via Unanimous Decision
Cain Velasquez 13-2 vs Travis Browne 18-3-1
When Cain is healthy and not gassed due to high altitude there aren't too many guys who can beat him. Browne operates nearly the same way as one of his 3 losses was due to injury. Velasquez's output is just too much for Browne to handle here. I see him making it out of the first but notfar past that.
Pick: Cain Velasquez via 2nd Round KO/TKO
Jose Aldo 25-2 vs Frankie Edgar 19-4-1
My personal opinion is that Edgar is the one guy in the 145 pound division that is a nightmare for McGregor. I feel like a perfect Frankie Edgar beats Conor McGregor 9/10 times. With that being said, that doesn't mean that Aldo isn't a nightmare of a matchup for our boy Edgar. Edgar needs to not allow Aldo to fire off those ridiculous leg kicks that slow all of his opponents down so much. If Frankie can do that he can win this fight. Unless Aldo has went punchy I don't see Edgar knocking him out, but I do see a clear cut decision victory for him. (Unless the same judges who judged his first fight vs Henderson and Aldo are judging) Edgar needs to make it apparent to the judges in this one because he gets robbed too often. Baring a nightmare judging fiasco, Edgar takes home the belt.
Pick: Frankie Edgar via Unanimous Decision
Daniel Cormier 17-1 vs Anderson Silva 33-7
I could sit here with a blank screen forever on this fight. Why? Because I don't wanna talk about it. Why? Because my number 1 rule to betting MMA is to NEVER EVER bet against Anderson Silva. Silva is coming off of a very controversial loss to Bisping and is only a short amount of time removed from serious surgery. Nearly everyone expects Cormier to absolutely dominate him but I can't bring myself to see that happening. It's not just emotions people I honestly can't see DC doing what he did to Hendo to Silva. I'm just going to ride the general consensus here but honestly, if your betting STAY AWAY FROM THIS FIGHT!
Pick: Daniel Cormier via 1st Round KO/TKO
Brock Lesnar 5-3 vs Mark Hunt 12-10-1
I'm sure you've heard me say that when it comes to heavyweights you can basically flip a coin. Now I'm a huge wrestling fan and have been for over 20 years. Everyone expects Hunt to land that one big shot and for Lesnar to drop immediatley. It's no secret that Lesnar doesn't like to get hit but will he really drop from the first punch? We'll have to see. Either way its going to be extremely entertaining for that first exchange.
Pick: Mark Hunt via 1st Round KO/TKO
Miesha Tate 18-5 vs Amanda Nunes 12-4
Everyone is betting Tate by sub so hard and its laughable. Nunes is a legit black belt with credentials beyond reach. If Tate's gameplan is to take Nunes down shes going to be in a world of trouble. Honestly I see this one going to the challenger. Miesha had a terrible weight cut to the point where she almost missed weight and she looked terrible. Even with the extra time to rehydrate I still think that takes a serious toll on her body in this fight. I expect Amanda to end her in the second or third round.
Pick: Amanda Nunes via 3rd Round KO/TKO
Well there are my picks guys! I really hope you enjoyed reading and I can't wait to discuss all of this with you! Happy watching!
