IMG/GIF Why Wonderboy Will Lose to Woodley & Woodley Will Too...

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KataKing

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Sep 1, 2016
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UFC 205 is days away. Conor McGregor is the Big Headline. So I thought I'd adopt Conor to advance the proposition in my thread title how Wonderboy will lose.

My proposition that Wonderboy will lose is not really my position. Honestly, I'm not smart enough or in direct contact enough with either competitor to go beyond gauging Woodely or Wonderboy through a computer screen. This is a flailing attempt to be clever.... when I'm not.

So let's get started since the conventional MMA social community has been relatively quiet about this match... must of been scared off by my karate textbook threads I've been posting in TMMAC's Fighter's Corner. Here goes.

First of all, a PREAMBLE. Wonderboy's sport-karate / kickboxing style has three (s) main elements, according to GUIDING karate martial principles. Nobody in MMA has realized what these are, though some have been getting "warm" in their quest. Now to be mean. I'm not going to tell you what they are. NOPE. There's been so much disrespect for karate tradition by MMA, mis-information... ya'll have to figure them out for yourselves. Of course like a good instructor, I'll help. All three elements are represented in the MCGregor KO of Aldo gif below:


As you know, Conor trains out of SBG under John Kavanagh. SBG believes in adapting philosophically what works from diverse martial art styles and blending them into a tactically strong & effective package.

Here, IMO, Conor has adopted the conventional sport karate style. In several ways. More importantly, employing a multiple of interlocking karate principles. The basically proper execution of this set of karate-like principles becomes then the undoing of Aldo's successful record of Muay Thai striking. Aldo's classic kind of MMA-close-the-gap gambit massive fail.

I'll skip a thorough rendition of the karate principles used by Conor, they are over in my karate-manual threads in Fighter's Corner. You know, the TLDR ones. I will say, "... how did that hand up, the right hand by Aldo up as a guard protecting his chin, how did that work?" Can't be 1-dimensional against karate, MMA'rs.

NOW, WHAT I WANT TO CENTER ON IN MY DISCUSSION. And this has been noted and talked about by many an MMA forum post. Jose's power left smacks Conor's head pretty good... to late for Jose. Karate kumite competition by design really reinforces that almost ain't good enough. Virtually counts for zero, nada officially & formally. So we do see a correct mindset in karate competition for competing in MMA, if one bothers to go beyond the superficial martial hype that got the Fertittas [sp?] $4.0 billion.

MY THESIS FOR A WONDERBOY LOSS: THREE (AGAIN) REASONS.

1. Woodley is extremely strong;
2.Woodley uses that strength well to create power.
3. Woodely has explosive speed.

The apparent conclusion then, is that Woodley unlike Wonderboy's previous MMA opponents, is uniquely qualified to surprise & overpower Wonderboy and either TKO him like he did Robbie Lawler; OR, take Wonderboy to the ground and out of Wonderboy preferred element, standing. Once on the ground, the considerable physical strength advantage of Woodley then becomes a very probable factor in manhandling Wonderboy's otherwise good technical ground skills (which frankly with Wonderboy, we have seen good evidence of).

I also judge Woodley of having greater tactical intelligence than your typical MMA competitor, such as Jose Aldo. Woodley's move from ATT to Rofusport a wise choice. Having said that... it's Woodley physique and outstanding athletics he's developed to apply that physique that would spell the undoing of Wonderboy. For Wonderboy, there is far greater danger in trading shots for x-number of rounds with a Woodley striker / wrestler than a with a MacDonald-like technical striker/ grappler.

I believe Woodley is in fact the ultimate test for Wonderboy as Welterweight Champion. Maia is also a tough test; the karate comeback is Wonderboy's striking standup is just superior to anything Maia can mount...IMHO.

So there it is. A presumption for Woodley win, by a traditional karateka. However, traditional karate is a thinking man's "game." Take a second look @ the OP Gif above. All the karate principles are there to expertly drop Tyron's explosive forward lunge & power strike gambit. Tyron attempting the same tactic against a truly skilled karate competitor will get dropped instantly. Why? It's the forum to answer... for Woodley to answer, it's for Roufus & Co. to answer, the pundits to answer. I've literally done it.

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Incidentally, I personally am not a fan of either SBG or Roufusport. I am more a fan of Wonderboy's style, Upstate Karate? Specifically how Dad trains Wonderboy, NO.
 
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Ghost Bro

Wololo ~Leave no turn unstoned
Nov 13, 2015
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I like your karate threads, normally you'd get more traction if you posted on cageside though, it is still relevant.

Reading through the rest of this post on the bus:D I'd have figured you'd go for Wonderbro.


Update; Wasn't that long a post, and I didn't even get up yet, but I like your analysis.
It will be a fun fight, kind of like power vs technique. Don't know who wins...but surely they are a completely different style matchup for eachother...one that I think both will get only that one chance to experience, so we'll see I guess. Woodley is very black explosive.
 
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KataKing

Active Member
Sep 1, 2016
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I like your karate threads, normally you'd get more traction if you posted on cageside though, it is still relevant.

Reading through the rest of this post on the bus:D I'd have figured you'd go for Wonderbro.
Well, yes that's what I'm personally hoping for. The larger consideration is that karate is a mental discipline. One must, by definition be objective. Aldo, by analysis in the gif... was not objective... when Conor's SBG-karate / boxing style expressly trains & prepares for such a tactic. Moreover, since this is MMA as well, Conor held a size, strength & reach advantage over Jose. Physical aggression-depending on that-against a physically better opponent, is foolhardy martial arts.

I really don't have a certain idea of how this will play out. Martial-wise, this fight is the UFC 205 Headliner. Commercial reasons... MAC is on top. I think it very possible Stephen Thompson will dominate on the feet... as the odds suggest. He may surprise on the ground too because technical s aside for a moment, the three elements in his style carry over to grappling... they are categorizations of potent principles....
 

KataKing

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Sep 1, 2016
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TIME FOR A JKA COMMERCIAL

I've gotta go. Before I do, I'll take this opportunity to present another example of top karate competition. Shotokan karate is not my personal or favorite choice of traditional kararte style... but I will re-assert it's very well suited for MMA competitors as a group. I'm not affiliated with the JKA either.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3Fi-0iR9Rw

While good boxing impresses me, I can't box my way out of a paper bag, it's a fundamental mistake to believe that karate doesn't develop hand skills competitive with boxing, Muay Thai. It's just harder, takes longer for the average practitioner to do. Professional level boxing requires very high-level mental discipline to overcome. That's where good karate takes you.

These guys will literally rocket a strike into your face, body before you realize it. And they can follow up/on with multiple technique. And they can instantly re-engage, exchange fiercely. Wonderboy's striking skill is below the level here... he's gone with sport boxing and away from strict karate tradition. Same with Duke Roufus & Co. More pragmatic, ultimately less effective. These JKA competitors don't need to adapt to MMA ,Muay Thai, etc... they just precision smash you in the blink of an eye.

Super Sage, you're outta your league here....
 
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BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
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Don't tell me, tell Chinzo's opponent, errr where is he now?
Umm, your whole analysis is based around Woodley being stronger and more explosive; which are traits most common to wrestlers. No need to get your jimmies rustled.
 

Wild

Zi Nazi
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Dec 31, 2014
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Enjoy your breakdowns KataKing @KataKing but hope you end up wrong w/ this one ;) I really want to see Wonderboy touch gold and reach the pinnacle. He may be the nicest fighter I've met since we started this.
 

KataKing

Active Member
Sep 1, 2016
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Enjoy your breakdowns KataKing @KataKing but hope you end up wrong w/ this one ;) I really want to see Wonderboy touch gold and reach the pinnacle. He may be the nicest fighter I've met since we started this.
Wild @Wild
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Well, there are at least 2 dimensions to my Wonderboy loss theory. And that view comes from looking at the guiding principles inherent in the sport karate model... both that model in general, and with Wonderboy's interpretation or personalized version in particular. On the latter, Wonderboy also has certain, specific weaknesses within the execution of his own style (unlike me...ha).

Nevertheless... the base starting point for my thesis is that the Sport karate kumite model... as represented by the McGregor complete finish of Aldo Gif, has three guiding principles which if executed to high standards,,, will drop Woodley. So no free ride for Woodley by any means. Wonderboy does not usually TKO with a first, single punch... so I discount the MAC / Aldo scenario based on Wonderboy's MMA Record & my evaluation of his striking effectiveness. Who knows... maybe Stephen will surprise!

At the least... a top level reverse punch counter to a Woodley rush could stun Woodley... leading to a Whittaker-type outcome. I would love for Woodely to try and pull the Lawler gambit because then this is the ultimate test of strong MMA athleticism against Wonderboy's karate tactical skill backed by requisite power.

More than that, this is a real MMA striking approach versus Karate-based striking challenge. Means a lot for the future of MMA striking, in terms of recognition of how to best train & fight. Woodley makes an excellent representative of MMA imo, and should be getting a lot more credit than the communities are awarding. A lot more. I give credit where credit is due.
 

SC MMA MD

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Jan 20, 2015
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Wonderboy will have his way with him. Woodley will freeze.
That is what we are hoping for, but not what we are expecting. Tyron is very well rounded, well coached and has a high fight IQ. Despite some of the complaints about his title run, he did not get the belt by accident. His right hand is deadly, and his wrestling is top-tier. I am sure Duke and Tyron have a good game plan, but I think it is very hard to emulate Stephens striking and TDD in training. I see Stephen winning with striking, but if he makes a mistake and Tyron touches his chin with that right hand, or if Tyron is able to push the fight to a close range grind against the cage it could be a bad night for Wonderboy. I think this is going to be a great fight that people are going to be talking about for a while.
 

KataKing

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Sep 1, 2016
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That is what we are hoping for, but not what we are expecting. Tyron is very well rounded, well coached and has a high fight IQ. Despite some of the complaints about his title run, he did not get the belt by accident.
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SC MMA MD @SC MMA MD Agreed. Much of the vitrol lauched @ Woodley is social propoganda IMO. I've sampled his workouts on YT. He's with the better class of MMA in talent & work ethic both.

Tnx for bringing substance to the thread
His right hand is deadly, and his wrestling is top-tier. I am sure Duke and Tyron have a good game plan, but I think it is very hard to emulate Stephens striking and TDD in training.
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The training with Sage makes for good MMA coaching sense. It's for sure better than Hendricks claiming Wonderboy didn't act like Hendricks' training camp. REALLY? How successful this prototype approach is, is always questionable. The ability to pick up on facing a new style approach when you have been indoctrinated in largely physical-type training & directed coaching input... well there's often too much of an adjustment to make, proves too difficult to move away from the corner-man crutch. The effort then fails.

I see Stephen winning with striking, but if he makes a mistake and Tyron touches his chin with that right hand, or if Tyron is able to push the fight to a close range grind against the cage it could be a bad night for Wonderboy. I think this is going to be a great fight that people are going to be talking about for a while.
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Really, Wonderboy will be in danger the whole time... until that moment when he seriously stuns Woodley. Once that happens, and if that happens, Woodley will be like a battleship listing in the sea... then most likely sinking rapidly as Wonderboy famously pours-it-on. Damaged opponents typically don't last long with Wonderboy on the prowl. Rory M was fortunate they fought for points.

To put in a plug for Roufus, which is well deserved from what I see, Woodley will have some answers for Wonderboy's patented gambits. For instance, expect Woodley to pivot out rather that pull straight back like Hendricks did against the Wonderboy-blitz. Roufus is going to dig up sound kickboxing tactics for Tyron. The difficulty will be that the sport karate model is somewhat more flexible than just generating a case-by-case technique methodology will address... the later is how MMA tacticians think. Karate embodies a palate of principles as serious study of my karate treads makes plain.
 
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KataKing

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Sep 1, 2016
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Wonderboy will have his way with him. Woodley will freeze.


This the ATT Woodley. Wonderboy is facing the Duke Roufus Woodley. World's apart. Somebody in Woodley's world woke up and said what I've always said... that the conventional MMA striking training regimen is mundane, actually mindless. All this stuff about hitting pads, live sparring, hard sparring preparing one for a tough opponent is just as dumb as those who say kata isn't used in fighting. Kata used to be the sole training method for traditional karate. Of course Rory has excellent technicals, by MMA standards. By Pro-Boxing, Rory is meh. Woodley's deficient striking skill level here is much more to blame than Rory's solid MMA striking skill.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bxq3GcknXIo

I can't fathom any MMA striking-way to improve on Tyron's expertise @ this moment. None.

Postnote: Here's where the "Aldo versus McGregor" sortie worked. And ATT tapped out. Below, I stumbled into the link that shows the striking interaction surrounding the KO. All this hype about Lawler "going-the-distance" then coming on strong in later rounds.... karate tradition would never conceive of such foolishness, however MMA seating filling / fan pleasing.

View: https://cdn-w1.streamable.com/video/mp4-mobile/zhr1.mp4?token=1479529113_5487fff0ed4c036456d55725987d43f35f227d86
 
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Ranger

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Nov 17, 2015
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I think if Tyron wins, it will be due to his level changes, clinch work, and perhaps his ability to cut off the cage. I think Woodley should sidekick wonderboy's legs, and end punching combinations with low kicks. Woodley has a lot of power in his kicks, and with Wonderboy's stance it could really mess up his legs. The sidekick to the knee will fluster Wonderboy, and either have him rushing in or backing up. And it may give Tyron an opportunity to connect with a right hand either by counter or by moving forward.

Even the Johnny got his ass whooped pretty badly, when he was rushing in using the level change Wonderboy paused for a moment, and didn't circle out. I think level changes would be perfect for Tyron, and he used them very well in his fight with Robbie.
 

KataKing

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Sep 1, 2016
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I think if Tyron wins, it will be due to his level changes, clinch work, and perhaps his ability to cut off the cage.
Ranger @Ranger I can readily visualize what you are saying.

1. Level Change. The level change, which Woodley's past tape shows, to takedown for instance can be a highly promising tactic against sport strikers. We can see evidence of this in my Shotokan karate kumite vids which are posted in Fighters Corner. The kumite competitors who exploit level change using sweeps are successful more often than not.

2. Clinch Work. Clinch work against karateka has been less successful, typically working on the relatively unskilled and narrow technically. Nonetheless... the clinch remains a feasible alternative against Wonderboy. This is one reason I have always been critical of Wonderboy's open workouts... also.

3. Cutting off the Cage. This approach is flawed against karateka as it only works against those who depend on excessive movement... the running around the Octagon approach. Again, however, you have pointed out a viable tactic since even the well-known karateka in MMA tend to regress to doing so, including Wonderboy. The "running" Wonderboy did against Hendricks worked so well because of critical flaws in Hendricks MMA Style on top of his "Strong-man" approach to MMA training.... which the karate kumite model is designed specifically to address... re the OP GIF.

Karate tradition doesn't match raw strength against strength. It matches coordinated whole body strength together with high tactical intelligence. The karate base defined so defined is going to trounce Mr. Strongman 9 out of 10. Nothing's a guarantee.

I think Woodley should sidekick wonderboy's legs, and end punching combinations with low kicks. Woodley has a lot of power in his kicks, and with Wonderboy's stance it could really mess up his legs. The sidekick to the knee will fluster Wonderboy, and either have him rushing in or backing up. And it may give Tyron an opportunity to connect with a right hand either by counter or by moving forward.
Well, I wonder how Duke Roufus views the same. We have seen vids here @ TMMAC such as Lawrence Kenshin where your Kicking at the stance worked wonders. There are several problems, however, in doing so against a skilled karateka, including Wonderboy.

When we have a more passive, inactive karate fighter, like Machida, who really depends on 1-technique.... then yes the low kick, leg kick attack carries more promise. Should you review my Karate Course threads in fighters corner, including Wonderboy's Top 10 skills, which quickly turned into Top 20, then a 1-dimensional kick, kick combo type approach is up against a palate of offsetting karate-like skills. In short, Wonderboy has many limitations in his striking... but comparatively speaking overall he is one of the most versatile MMA strikers to ever grace an MMA headline. I may comment more on this latter. In the meantime Woodley, good luck with the kicks....

Karate fighters,,, including the higher-level sport karate fighters.... are versatile... you're not going to pin them down easily. The adjust, they adapt... in formal competition..... NO CORNERMAN... they do it instantaneously in their head.

Even the Johnny got his ass whooped pretty badly, when he was rushing in using the level change Wonderboy paused for a moment, and didn't circle out. I think level changes would be perfect for Tyron, and he used them very well in his fight with Robbie.
Nice point. Wonderboy has faults... and his emphasis on kickboxing is a singularly large one. Kickboxers tend to have a base tactics, then become reactive when that base doesn't work.... Having said that... Wonderboy is very quick, very agile when he gets surprised and is again, VERSATILE. By kickboxing standards... Wonderboy IS among the best out there, IMHO. So Woodley with all his athleticism and good training is still up against a scenario of a likely loss walking in there. And I'm sure Woodley is worried.

On the level change, against skilled karate you are asking for the Post #8, Chinzo vs. Grappler outcome. My karate posts detail how karate tradition trains, in principle, how to counteract against level change... and, in principle, how to use level change from DAY 1. See my Wonderboy Top 10 Gifs... there's a couple of illustrations....

Thanks for bringing sound MMA tactical thinking to the thread. Firas Z. would be proud. He underestimates karate tradition though....
 
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KataKing

Active Member
Sep 1, 2016
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Even the Johnny got his ass whooped pretty badly, when he was rushing in using the level change Wonderboy paused for a moment, and didn't circle out. I think level changes would be perfect for Tyron, and he used them very well in his fight with Robbie.
The way to intelligently evaluate karate is to study it. Here's another Karate girlfriend I don't have. She is hardcore Shotokan. Look through the training, then focus on the competition footage of Karin. There's a short clip of her completely blowing her opponent away including makes some high-calibre, real time adjustments (including, not limited to level "changes") during the exchange. TIME = 1:17-1:21.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OE1GxuIm3K0

The kumite training samples of the students for kumite show how they counter kicks, in principle. So if kicks are routinely working against some sport karate competitor.. then they are not up to training standards, here Shotokan. You've got to able to think to do karate well... you just can't put together some gambit that beats your fellow competitor, whether it be Jose Aldo or Rick Roufus (or Wonderboy), and rely automatically on that to overcome a truly skilled striker. See Also Post #4.
 
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KataKing

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Sep 1, 2016
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Contrasted to Aldo, here's another MMA fighter (His Trainer) who resoundingly defeated Conor McGregor's karate-boxing striking style. I can point out 2 flaws in the conditioning exercise Perez makes right off the bat. But so what? Any one can find imperfection.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_t8NcgPrNUY


The bigger, better point is how MMA Strikers should try to attain the boxing hands Perez shows off. He's naturally gifted & has honed that hand skill. Contrast this against the South African Shotokan School training above and one can readily visualizing Perez's method winning against sport karate in boxing like exchanges based on technical skills alone. So should Roufus-Woodley go this route... I say it might well work against Wonderboy.

I've had boxer-based karateka light me up like Perez does the speed bag here. Serious martial artists don't discount the abilities of an opponent. The Comeback: Against really sound karate though... Perez is going to have a fight on his hands that this nice demo doesn't address... and to some extend Wonderboy's exchange-striking achieves this.

If anything, the Shotokan competition kumite vids demonstrate that good karate fighters don't stand around getting used for a punching bag. They vigorously & persistently strike back, with a blend of several characteristics absent in Perez.

EDIT: Conor McGregor and SBG-Kavanagh promote similar boxing training like Perez., which is in fact, what lead to Conor's downfall against Nate Diaz. By karate standards, that is. I'm not against professional MMA competitors training like or under Perez... I would just never do it.
 
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KataKing

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Sep 1, 2016
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UPDATE: UFC / "WOODLEY VS. THOMPSON - FIGHTING FOR HISTORY"

I have no crystal ball on this one. Yet the UFC promotional video released this week (and very well done I might add) reveals some concepts about how these 2 competitors are going to proceed Nov. 12. Link below.
View: https://youtu.be/au7xp-pEEHA?t=753

Of most interest is to me is Woodley / Roufus. Thompson is / has been training with Ray Longo who is a valued MMA / kickboxing coach. Longo doesn't do much for me karatewise.

Anyway, my opening premise about a Wonderboy loss is bolstered by what I see in the preview video. Among the strong points are:

1. Coach Roufus. Roufus knows the sport karate style cold. I think if anyone in MMA knows the vulnerabilities of Wonderboy's striking style, it's Roufus.

2. Sparring Partner-SAGE. Sage as a sparring partner can do no harm, only add experiential value. MMA sparring experience is a key part of the way MMA competitors train... and is feasible as opposed to Woodley postponing his fight career for 3-5 years to get a karate black-belt. I feel in the least, we won't be having a Hendricks' post-fight comment of, "...I didn't expect him (WB) to move like that."

3. Tactic #1-Rush the Takedown. I commented on this in my OP,,, sure 'nough; There's Tyron training doggedly chasing Sage until he gets the clinch. There's a karate-sin or more in how SAGE is behaving... but Stephen is sometimes guilty of those same, "sport karate-kickboxing sins."

4. Tactic #2-Pin to Cage & Unload. Wonderboy can in-fight... but he's also the most vulnerable there. The McDonald fight showed that again. Woodley isn't playing a good-bye UFC role. He's faced with a career defining moment... and the bucks that go with it. Tyron is not going to show the cautious reserve of Rory, which didn't work anyhow. I note that this is how later Machida competitors tore Machida up. How's Stephen going to handle that? Another top martial question to be answered in this fight.

5. Tactic #3-The Big Right. No surprises here. The way to shut down Thompson is to shut-him-off. Stephan has a / his patented ways to deal with power strikers... but the model far from foolproof. Planned high-aggression has been the undoing of MMA sport karate competitors... and expect fully Tyron to use that physical strength advantage & be highly aggressive. Remember by looking @ my OP Gif, this gambit is also high risk against sport karateka... would are built to out-counter such techniques...

Anyway... just trying to show Ray Longo isn't up to my karate-speed. Sonia & her kata is where I'm at. Karin Prinsloo is a bit much.... still she's definitely reached the World-Class pinnacle. Remember, real-time karate adjustment is a trump card. This has been Tryon's Achilles heel.
 
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SC MMA MD

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Just a clarification- Stephen is not traveling to Long Island to train standup with Ray Longo, he is there to be a sparring partner for Chris and to work his wrestling. His striking coach still is the other Ray- Ray Thompson.
 

SC MMA MD

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Jan 20, 2015
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BTW KataKing @KataKing - I am glad to see you post this thread in Cageside, I don't think your threads have gotten the attention they deserve in the Fighter's Corner. I hope you plan to do a post-fight analysis after Saturday's fight.
 

KataKing

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Sep 1, 2016
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Just a clarification- Stephen is not traveling to Long Island to train standup with Ray Longo, he is there to be a sparring partner for Chris and to work his wrestling. His striking coach still is the other Ray- Ray Thompson.
Tnx for the correction. I was keying off the UFC vid as to specific alterations Stephen might be making to prep for this fight.

I'm not impressed with the Ray Longo led striking training in the vid. It's how I wouldn't train for Woodley. Thompson already knows how to kick & punch.
 

KataKing

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Sep 1, 2016
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BTW KataKing @KataKing - I am glad to see you post this thread in Cageside, I don't think your threads have gotten the attention they deserve in the Fighter's Corner. I hope you plan to do a post-fight analysis after Saturday's fight.
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SC MMA MD @SC MMA MD Well karate tradition doesn't get the attention it deserves in general. It's just a whole 'nother level. If one views the Pinetown YT vid hosted by Shotokan karate expert Karin Prinsloo... you'll see how a traditionally based dojo does specifically prepare for MMA-like encounters... differences in rule set notwithstanding. Remember... karate tradition is about principles... not just a Ray Longo bag heavy bag workout.
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I put this in Cageside once I built an introduction & foundation @ Fighters Corner. That was what made sense to me.