Sports 2018 Kentucky Derby & Triple Crown Discussion

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Wild

Zi Nazi
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
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Might as well get this years horse racing discussion started, as we're approximately 2 months away from the Kentucky Derby (Saturday May 5th), and prep races have begun.

I've been fortunate enough to hit the Derby the last 3 years, but it's a tough race to handicap. I hope I get lucky again this year.

Below is the current Top 20 in points standings & earnings. This will change several times over the next 2 months.

Rank - Horse - Trainer - Points

1. Good Magic, Chad Brown, 24
2. Firenze Fire, Jason Servis, 24
3. McKinzie, Bob Baffert, 20
4. Bolt d’Oro, Mick Ruis, 14
5. Free Drop Billy, Dale Romans, 14
6. Solomini, Bob Baffert, 14
7. Catholic Boy, Jonathan Thomas, 14
8. Avery Island, Kiaran McLaughlin, 14
9. Instilled Regard, Jerry Hollendorfer, 14
10. Enticed, Kiaran McLaughlin, 13
11. Greyvitos, Adam Kitchingman, 10
12. Audible, Todd Pletcher, 10
13. Mourinho, Bob Baffert, 10
14. Lombo, Mike Pender, 10
15. Combatant, Steve Asmussen, 8
16. Tiz Mischief, Dale Romans, 6
17. Hollywood Star, Dale Romans, 5
18. Ayacara (GB), Keith Desormeaux, 5
19. Bravazo, D. Wayne Lukas, 4
20. Principe Guilherme, Steve Asmussen, 4

And here's a list of the upcoming prep races.



Thunder Over Louisville will kick off The Derby Festival on April 21st.



With a really cool air show prior to the fireworks.

 

Wild

Zi Nazi
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
94,031
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As of 4/8, Las Vegas Odds for Ky Derby ;

Justify- 5/2
Bolt d Oro- 3/1
Good Magic- 5/1
Mendelssohn- 5/1
Aubible- 6/1
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
49,204
61,261
Have they announced the field yet?
 

Wild

Zi Nazi
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
94,031
136,369
Have they announced the field yet?
Horse - Points
1 Magnum Moon 150
2 Good Magic 134
3 Audible 110
4 Noble Indy 110
5 Vino Rosso 107
6 Bolt d'Oro 104
7 Enticed 103
8 Mendelssohn 100
9 Justify 100
10 Quip 90
11 Flameaway 70
12 Solomini 54
13 Bravazo 54
14 My Boy Jack 52
15 Promises Fulfilled 52
16 Free Drop Billy 44
17 Lone Sailor 42
18 Hofburg 40
19 Firenze Fire 39
20 Combatant 32
21 Instilled Regard 29
22 Catholic Boy 24
23 Snapper Sinclair 22
24 Blended Citizen 22
25 Reride 20

Top 20 are eligible. There will be some defections however, so some of those in the 21-25 range could make it into the field.
 

Wild

Zi Nazi
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
94,031
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Here's 3 key angles that I take into consideration when making my Derby selections.

1) A colt must achieve the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or run the final eighth of a mile in 12 4/5 or less. And also must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep. This method gets around 67% Derby winners from only around 33% of the starters.

Here are the qualifiers this year:

Audible
Bolt D'Oro
Hofburg
Justify
Vino Rosso
My Boy Jack
Noble Indy
Magnum Moon
Combatant

2) Horse has Buckpasser in the X portion of their bloodline

Good Magic
Audible
Vino Rosso
Bolt D'Oro
Bravazo
Hofburg
Combatant

3) Horse has Raise A Native in his bloodline

Good Magic
Firenze Fire
Solomini
Instilled Regard
Snapper Sinclair
Quip
Blended Citizen
Vino Rosso
Reride



Another interesting thing to note;

Here's how the last 26 derby winners fared in their final prep race.

13 won

9 finished second (all by less than 3 lengths)

4 finished 4th (all by less than 5 lengths)

Top 2 criteria comprise 85% of winners.


Vino Rosso fits all angles. Will he be my play? Not sure yet. Want to see the works leading up to the Derby and what post position he draws. Also like a couple of others (Bolt D'oro, Good Magic).
 

Mix6APlix

The more you cry, the less I care.
Oct 20, 2015
12,918
13,409
Word is Canelo is training to be a jockey and run in Cinco de Horsey.
 

HEATH VON DOOM

Remember the 5th of November
Oct 21, 2015
17,274
24,684
I am going to place my bets based on what Eddie Olczyk picks are. For being a dumb hockey player he has his shit together for horse racing
 
Last edited:

sparkuri

Pulse on the finger of The Community
First 100
Jan 16, 2015
39,869
52,575
Is there a livestream for Thunder of Louisville?
The airshow?

Personally I think they should save the best for last, but I guess rich beta's are more turned on by breeding/owning slaves or horses.
The alpha proletarian's have to settle for ripping the sky in half with bombs and fighter jets.
 

Wild

Zi Nazi
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
94,031
136,369
Is there a livestream for Thunder of Louisville?
The airshow?

Personally I think they should save the best for last, but I guess rich beta's are more turned on by breeding/owning slaves or horses.
The alpha proletarian's have to settle for ripping the sky in half with bombs and fighter jets.
Will post something later. Thunder is awesome.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
49,204
61,261
Is this the field? I need to blindly pick a horse.

 

Wild

Zi Nazi
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
94,031
136,369
I need your trifecta
Not sure what it is yet lol, but I'll post it prior to the race.

Have a little SHOW parley going, starting with Race 1. Bet $5 to SHOW on the #5 and he won. Got back $12 on a $5 bet. Will bet that $12 on a horse to SHOW in Race 2, etc...until I either cash out or crap out.
 

Wild

Zi Nazi
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
94,031
136,369
Missed betting on the second race. Would have hit the show on the #2 horse. Fuck.
 

Wild

Zi Nazi
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
94,031
136,369
SHOW parlay over already. Bet the #4 in Race 3 and he shit the bed. Stakes races about to begin, which is when the real action starts.