General Corona virus updates

[Yossarian]

You lock down liquor stores in Ohio you have a whole other set of problems. Haha.

If you open up testing at a drive thru you will have a panic rush to get tested. It would make the toilet paper mania look like nothing.

But - IF you can figure out a way to do it orderly where you aren't increasing likelihood of spreading the virus and IF we have enough tests and IF we aren't taking medical personnel away from people who are sick and need care, I'm fine with it.

Good points. But if mass testing lowers the curve it will be much better for healthcare personnel in the long run. Because a full run on hospitals will make thebtoilet paper run look like a mere scuffle. If S. Korea can do it, why the fuck not the US of A?

 

[Yossarian]

I am pretty sure that premier horgan is worried if construction stops BC will go tits up.the entire province runs on real estate and construction since the NDP commies killed forestry,mining and fisheries

Money first. Government protects interests.

 

[Yossarian]

The firemen here are doing Drive thru testing at the fire department. I think 25 of the first 100 tested are positive. I think it boosted us to 3rd place in our area with numbers.

We can't shelter in place forever. And I think people are contagious before they know they have it.

A positive test would make people take the sheltering more seriously. And negative ones can go back to work.

I think everyone should be tested. I think they should have people submit for a test online and they give you a date to come and test.

And all the infected get to go on a cruise. I like it!

 

[Yossarian]

Do we have enough tests to mail out to people so they can do it at home on their own?

330 million tests.

If not - yes. A waste. And likely counterproductive.

Mass testing is the least wasteful, we will finally get the data we need to make rational decisions. Without it, I see more stimulus bills and more shutdowns coming based on guesses or dudes with a calculator in one of those pretentious colleges. I say it is the most valuable thing we can do. It's why Korea has been so succesful, relatively speaking, in lowering that curve.

 

[Shinkicker]

You will be able to buy a corona testing kit at your local drugstore next year.

Maybe.

You don't think that would overwhelm the medical practitioners who are already busy as shit?

Don't get me wrong - I agree mass testing would be awesome. I just don't know how feasible it is at this point.

What medical practitioners? The firemen are swabbing and sending to lab. Do you mean the lab technicians?

Side note: a few nurses where I work asked how to obtain specimen for the testing. The supervisor sent out a link to a YouTube video.

True story.

God help us all.

 

[so long]

There's nothing stopping us from testing everybody in the US in a pretty rapid manner.
The most important thing is figuring out who to start with. This could be start of a strategy to putting people back to work more quickly than we currently can without data.
There are test that are less than $10. But let's go with the $100 test. Because the US is silly at everything about this. But also because testing has a wide variation in sensitivity and specificity right now because of so many manufacturers.

$100 test for 300 million Americans means $30 billion.
We're spending a trillion or two on a shotgun approach because we can't be surgical.

As I see it the biggest limitation is simply manufacturing capacity of those tests versus the current onslaught because we waited so long to start creating those tests. As such by the time I create the test we have too much exponential spread. So you're forced to shelter in place anyway.

But don't totally discount broad testing. This is a very serious part of getting us back to work and life faster than doing it in a blind trickle.

Ideally such broad testing would look like a combination of modalities.
Drive-thru testing at home testing would both be of major importance.
I would think you'd probably have to start with the younger crowd. They are the most mobile and the most asymptomatic. They're also most likely to be job producers. So you'd have to come up with some strategy to test that crowd And you could sign off that they have the green light to move around. They could also be employed and temporary assistance positions so that as people recover or find out they were asymptomatic infections they become useful for all those old people that need to not catch this until there is a vaccine.

I'm kind of waxing poetic here but you get the idea. Broad testing is not unaffordable. It's just a question of strategy. Though I do agree with you based on manufacturing limits it isn't really a solution right now. We just missed the boat.

You wouldn't test just once

 

[Hauler]

You will be able to buy a corona testing kit at your local drugstore next year.

Maybe.


What medical practitioners? The firemen are swabbing and sending to lab. Do you mean the lab technicians?

Side note: a few nurses where I work asked how to obtain specimen for the testing. The supervisor sent out a link to a YouTube video.

True story.

God help us all.

I don't know. I'm just spitballing while I watch the market.

Be safe out there!

 

[Splinty]

You wouldn't test just once

Fair dinkum

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

I am pretty sure that premier horgan is worried if construction stops BC will go tits up.the entire province runs on real estate and construction since the NDP commies killed forestry,mining and fisheries

Didn’t you claim BC would go tits 6 months after NDP took power in BC?

 

[Shinkicker]

I don't know. I'm just spitballing while I watch the market.

Be safe out there!

I've been monitoring that. I was about to tell you to concentrate on the market. I'm counting on you to help me get rich over this.

 

[Shinkicker]

You wouldn't test just once

Why not?

 

[Zeph]

@Lars

 

[Zeph]

Why not?

If someone tests positive in an area you'd need to test the whole area again regardless of if they have a negative test or not. That would carry on until a vaccine.

 

[Shinkicker]

If someone tests positive in an area you'd need to test the whole area again regardless of if they have a negative test or not. That would carry on until a vaccine.

Define area. Like someone in my town tests positive and I have to be tested again? Or in my neighborhood? Or at my job? Define area.

 

[Yossarian]

If someone tests positive in an area you'd need to test the whole area again regardless of if they have a negative test or not. That would carry on until a vaccine.

Yes but more testing is more data, which equals a better response. It still would be better than throwing money at people, and even more money to the establishment.

 

[Zeph]

Define area. Like someone in my town tests positive and I have to be tested again? Or in my neighborhood? Or at my job? Define area.

Well it would depend on where the person who tested positive has travelled. If they only travelled between home and work, maybe a few other places it could be fairly limited, but if they flew between cities it could be large geographical areas.

 

[Rambo John J]

80% infection rate and 1.4% fatality rate works out to 3.7M dead in the US.

That's hopeful?

compared to some of the numbers being reported around the world(3.4% 8% 15%) and in this thread it is hopeful

I take that 1.4% number with a grain of salt like I do all of the numbers being reported, I think it is lower than 1.4%

this is the age of information wars

 

[Splinty]

If someone tests positive in an area you'd need to test the whole area again regardless of if they have a negative test or not. That would carry on until a vaccine.

Not true. It depends on the test. There are different antibodies for acute and recovered illnesses.
If we had a dual anybody test I could reasonably tell you who is currently infected and who is recovered and has chronic antibodies.
This exists for all my other diseases right now and will eventually exist for this as well.

We still don't know how long your immunity will last but you don't run your rules on exceptions. If they have recovered antibodies you let them go

 

[Rambo John J]

You lock down liquor stores in Ohio you have a whole other set of problems. Haha.
.

yep you wanna talk about some deaths
alcoholics would be filling up the hospitals and committing crime like crazy without their fix

That is what the liquor store lady told me last week

 

[Zeph]

Not true. It depends on the test. There are different antibodies for acute and recovered illnesses.
If we had a dual anybody test I could reasonably tell you who is currently infected and who is recovered and has chronic antibodies.
This exists for all my other diseases right now and will eventually exist for this as well.

We still don't know how long your immunity will last but you don't run your rules on exceptions. If they have recovered antibodies you let them go

The only problem with that is we aren't sure that people will develop antibodies. There are reports of people testing positive, recovering and testing negative, and then coming back and dying of Covid-19.

 

[so long]

Not true. It depends on the test. There are different antibodies for acute and recovered illnesses.
If we had a dual anybody test I could reasonably tell you who is currently infected and who is recovered and has chronic antibodies.
This exists for all my other diseases right now and will eventually exist for this as well.

We still don't know how long your immunity will last but you don't run your rules on exceptions. If they have recovered antibodies you let them go

When somebody has antibodies and has immunitized himself/herself from a virus, can you still carry it over to somebody else?

Say I positively test Corona and have succesfully recovered, can I go visit my parents without problems?
I would guess not, because I can still carry it on myself??
Thanks a lot!

 

[Shinkicker]

Well it would depend on where the person who tested positive has travelled. If they only travelled between home and work, maybe a few other places it could be fairly limited, but if they flew between cities it could be large geographical areas.

I don't think we can spend too much energy on going retro.

I keep hearing there are far more flu cases and it kills more people. But we don't allow it to shut our country down.

We have to focus on going forward, getting out of this situation as best we can.

I believe the start to that is available testing. Companies already drug test people before they can go to work. If a company wants to open up. Let's start it off by allowing them to test workers and have them sign that they will only travel to and from work until the shelter in place is lifted. They won't have to be tested again unless they have symptoms or a known contact with the virus. And have other public routes of obtaining the test for others. You should be able to walk into any clinic or doctor's office and get tested just like the flu test.

 

[Rambo John J]

For every 1% unemployment in USA there are approximately 1,500 deaths

worth thinking about

Movie the Big Short claimed 40,000 per 1% but that was an exaggeration
Do 40,000 people die in the United States for every 1% increase in unemployment?


also worth thinking about...

-Domestic Violence during lockdown
-Divorce Rates(some relationships will flourish, and some will fail as partners see how much they don't enjoy their spouses for various reasons...addictions coming to light, simply not getting along, cheating becomes obvious, etc..)
-Sexual Abuse

I am sure there is more but there are certainly gonna be some interesting consequences and statistics that will arise from lockdown.


All part of the equation IMO

 

[Rambo John J]

When somebody has antibodies and has immunitized himself/herself from a virus, can you still carry it over to somebody else?

Say I positively test Corona and have succesfully recovered, can I go visit my parents without problems?
I would guess not, because I can still carry it on myself??
Thanks a lot!

is that you in the avatar you wild man?
hahah good stuff

 

[Shinkicker]

The only problem with that is we aren't sure that people will develop antibodies. There are reports of people testing positive, recovering and testing negative, and then coming back and dying of Covid-19.

I'd like to read about that. You got a link or do I have to work for it?