General Corona virus updates

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Splinty

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,900
Smith County Texas going to be a hot spot.
East Texas. Tyler TX
Links closely with traffic in and out of Louisiana.
27 confirmed cases.
population is 227,000

100 cases per 1,000,000 and they just started testing.
400 in a week
1600 in 2 weeks
3000+ in 2.5 weeks

Luckily they issued this today:
Smith County issues stay at two-week home order, 27 confirmed coronavirus cases within county

So lets see how this affects the timeline.


What's Dallas doing...

Splinty said:
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-CoV)
247 cases in dallas county.

I've been claiming that Southern urban centers are about a week behind the coasts who are a couple weeks behind Italy. That's just hip pocket because there's so much testing variability and international airport exposure, tourist travel, etc. But the national numbers show we are altogether 3 weeks behind Italy.

lets math it. At current growth in Dallas county...
1000 cases in a week
4000 in 2 weeks
16000 in 3 weeks
64000 in 4 weeks

2.6 million people in dallas county

Where is italy today? 1100+ cases per million.
So around 2860, lets call it 3000, cases needed to see Italy level infection? a little shy of 2 weeks?
Now we have 5 times as many ICU beds as Italy per capita. So you should be able to prevent death at a greater level at first, but that's still gonna be a complete shit show a week or so later when you double and quadruple that number with no increased capacity.


Now Dallas has implemented a lot of interventions, but I think its important to realize how close this is to happening and still might.
Click to expand...
3 days later
247 has become 439
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-CoV)


Not quite 494 as expected. Are we flattening the curve? Small enough difference that it doesn't matter and its just testing?
Either way, at this rate Dallas will hit Italy level infection in 2 weeks. Needs to be flatter.
 
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