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silentsinger said:
Open up the country, they said...what could go wrong?

View: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52604676

Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases
Click to expand...
In fairness...Yes that's what happens after lockdown. We expect that.
Its going to happen. Everyone knows and is okay with this.

The goal of lockdown is to slow the spread and then allow it at a compromise rate that is slow enough to be responded to.
Then you will slowly undo it to monitor spread and respond as needed to prevent system overruns.
 
silentsinger

silentsinger

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Splinty said:
In fairness...Yes that's what happens after lockdown. We expect that.
Its going to happen. Everyone knows and is okay with this.

The goal of lockdown is to slow the spread and then allow it at a compromise rate that is slow enough to be responded to.
Then you will slowly undo it to monitor spread and respond as needed to prevent system overruns.
Click to expand...
I am going to come across as really selfish here, I am really quite fucked off with the good work we have put in being responsible adults, to have it all go back to the beginning again. We haven't even experienced the "second wave" yet.

I know I'm spazzing, I'm in far better shape than I was a week ago, really not too worried about my chances and you're in direct contact every day.
 
M

member 3289

Guest
Splinty said:
In fairness...Yes that's what happens after lockdown. We expect that.
Its going to happen. Everyone knows and is okay with this.

The goal of lockdown is to slow the spread and then allow it at a compromise rate that is slow enough to be responded to.
Then you will slowly undo it to monitor spread and respond as needed to prevent system overruns.
Click to expand...
Don't you still want to keep the R0 under 1.0?
 
M

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regular john @regular john why is Brazil not testing anyone?

Tests per 1M population:

U.S. - 28,357
Spain - 52,781
UK - 26,829
Italy - 42,439

Brazil - 1,597

You make Texas look like Quest Labs.
 
D

Deleted member 1

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conor mcgregor nut hugger said:
Don't you still want to keep the R0 under 1.0?
Click to expand...
We dunno. That's the whole argument on risk/benefits of disease burden and suppression. That's a great goal, but what does it take to do that? Well we can do that with full mitigation, and then you're going to have areas that go above one as you end lock down. The real measure is a compromise between healthcare system capacity and daily life. That's different at different places.
You could conceivable see an R0 greater than 1 in plenty of population with relatively low clinical burden and that would allow you to continue life. But if your number is too high you might get accidental spread into populations you were protecting (hi old people and those with diseases) and numbers that create system overruns.

If you saw us flare up to an r0 >1 in regional areas but had the healthcare system capacity to respond to them because you coordinated greater outside resources, then the actual disease mortality and morbidity might still be relatively low despite continued spread. But if you do it all at once everywhere, you will over run the system.

Modulating an R0 value has as much to do with interventions of course and with that, testing and research. My argument that you can use national resources to suppress regional outbreaks is also probably more likely in Germany than the USA (although we have removed cross state licensing restrictions for this reason).
 
regular john

regular john

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May 21, 2015
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conor mcgregor nut hugger said:
regular john @regular john why is Brazil not testing anyone?

Tests per 1M population:

U.S. - 28,357
Spain - 52,781
UK - 26,829
Italy - 42,439

Brazil - 1,597

You make Texas look like Quest Labs.
Click to expand...
The president openly mocks the pandemic and the deaths. in that setting, why would the country be doing a real effort with testing?
According to Polimap (PoliMap – COVID-19; also y'all should check this: https://osf.io/h6mvs/) developed countries are testing 15,6 % of the population; South American countries in average, 2,03%; Brazil = 0,49%.
I'm expecting chaos to hit my hometown in the next two-four weeks. We have a privileged situation so far here and in the state in general so authorities used that as an excuse to lay off on isolation policies. I went out Saturday morning real early and streets were packed. I can only imagine how it was later on the day. We have 33 cases, 0 deaths so far but two people died in the last days whose tests will probably come back positive. I hope I'm wrong but I may have to quote this post in two weeks/a month from now talking about 200+ cases with maybe a half a dozen deaths.
 
regular john

regular john

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May 21, 2015
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Splinty said:
We dunno. That's the whole argument on risk/benefits of disease burden and suppression. That's a great goal, but what does it take to do that? Well we can do that with full mitigation, and then you're going to have areas that go above one as you end lock down. The real measure is a compromise between healthcare system capacity and daily life. That's different at different places.
You could conceivable see an R0 greater than 1 in plenty of population with relatively low clinical burden and that would allow you to continue life. But if your number is too high you might get accidental spread into populations you were protecting (hi old people and those with diseases) and numbers that create system overruns.

If you saw us flare up to an r0 >1 in regional areas but had the healthcare system capacity to respond to them because you coordinated greater outside resources, then the actual disease mortality and morbidity might still be relatively low despite continued spread. But if you do it all at once everywhere, you will over run the system.

Modulating an R0 value has as much to do with interventions of course and with that, testing and research. My argument that you can use national resources to suppress regional outbreaks is also probably more likely in Germany than the USA (although we have removed cross state licensing restrictions for this reason).
Click to expand...
has there been some sort of change of heart among doctors about supporting fiscal expansion/more public investment on public health/financing of independent research, something like that?

overall we're most likely looking at ~18 months of corona-complications worldwide. pushing an early return will only cause more limitations to daily life for longer. comparisons of cases x population in different places indicate that numbers are basically random except for the few places that adopt social isolation early. the way I see it only takes a small mistake in decision making to turn a stable situation into chaos so why not wait a little more? the western world has been saving public money for 40 years for what? was FDR saving money for the third world war during the Second World War?
 
D

Deleted member 1

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regular john said:
overall we're most likely looking at ~18 months of corona-complications worldwide. pushing an early return will only cause more limitations to daily life for longer.
Click to expand...
I agree but...
No one expects that to be 18 month of lockdown. As I said, when you end lockdown, the expectation is always that cases will increase.
 
regular john

regular john

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May 21, 2015
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Splinty said:
I agree but...
No one expects that to be 18 month of lockdown. As I said, when you end lockdown, the expectation is always that cases will increase.
Click to expand...
of course not 18 months of lockdown but 18 months of consequences/limitations/perhaps on and off isolation. returning a week or a month early now will not change that and will most likely make this thing last for longer down the road. is the infrastructure there to deal with the cases that will add up or are politicians deferring to market forces?
 
Rambo John J

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regular john said:
of course not 18 months of lockdown but 18 months of consequences/limitations/perhaps on and off isolation. returning a week or a month early now will not change that and will most likely make this thing last for longer down the road.
Click to expand...
consequences?

for what?
 
Sheepdog

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Dec 1, 2015
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regular john said:
The president openly mocks the pandemic and the deaths. in that setting, why would the country be doing a real effort with testing?
According to Polimap (PoliMap – COVID-19; also y'all should check this: https://osf.io/h6mvs/) developed countries are testing 15,6 % of the population; South American countries in average, 2,03%; Brazil = 0,49%.
I'm expecting chaos to hit my hometown in the next two-four weeks. We have a privileged situation so far here and in the state in general so authorities used that as an excuse to lay off on isolation policies. I went out Saturday morning real early and streets were packed. I can only imagine how it was later on the day. We have 33 cases, 0 deaths so far but two people died in the last days whose tests will probably come back positive. I hope I'm wrong but I may have to quote this post in two weeks/a month from now talking about 200+ cases with maybe a half a dozen deaths.
Click to expand...
You probably won't hear much about mass covid deaths, because they can't attribute deaths to covid when they're not bothering to test anyone for it. But they will be there in the excess deaths numbers.

Your President is an even bigger retard than Trump - which is an astonishing feat - so you are going too be completely fucked.
 
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