Society The Joseph R Biden Show

Welcome to our Community
Wanting to join the rest of our members? Feel free to Sign Up today.
Sign up

Freeloading Rusty

Here comes Rover, sniffin’ at your ass
Jan 11, 2016
26,916
26,589
Lumber prices dive more than 40% in June, biggest monthly drop on record
  • Lumber futures tanked more than 40% in June alone, suffering their worst month on record dating back to 1978.
  • The building commodity is down more than 18% in 2021, headed for the first negative first half since 2015.
  • The quick reversal of lumber’s monthslong rally came as Americans started to go on vacations again instead of taking on renovation and building projects.
  • Many who are fearful of persistent inflation also took comfort in the drastic decline in prices in the face of cooling demand.
 

Freeloading Rusty

Here comes Rover, sniffin’ at your ass
Jan 11, 2016
26,916
26,589
Japanese official warns US of potential surprise attack on Hawaii — from Russia and China
Russia and China are coordinating military exercises to threaten not only Taiwan but also Hawaii, according to a senior Japanese defense official who warned the United States to beware of a Pearl Harbor-style surprise attack.

“We have to show the deterrence towards China, and not just China but also the Russians, because, as I told you, that they are doing their exercises together,” Japanese deputy Yasuhide Nakayama told the Hudson Institute this week.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
48,824
60,867
Lumber prices dive more than 40% in June, biggest monthly drop on record
  • Lumber futures tanked more than 40% in June alone, suffering their worst month on record dating back to 1978.
  • The building commodity is down more than 18% in 2021, headed for the first negative first half since 2015.
  • The quick reversal of lumber’s monthslong rally came as Americans started to go on vacations again instead of taking on renovation and building projects.
  • Many who are fearful of persistent inflation also took comfort in the drastic decline in prices in the face of cooling demand.
It has definitely fallen off way faster than anticipated. We lost about 6 months of gains in 3 weeks in the cash market. But there's still 6 months of gains that started around April '19 that is still in the price. I know I keep saying this - But lumber is still WAAAAAAY above what was accepted as "normal" levels.

They couldn't be more wrong about "cooling demand". The industry is still busy - but nobody is going to buy in to a falling market unless they have to. It's the "don't try to catch a falling knife" mentality. After the Canadian holiday (today?) and the 4th holiday, most believe we'll level off as buyers will need to buy back in to the market to keep their businesses moving.

And the news media continues to conflate "futures" with "cash". They are two completely different markets.
 

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,368
34,139
It has definitely fallen off way faster than anticipated. We lost about 6 months of gains in 3 weeks in the cash market. But there's still 6 months of gains that started around April '19 that is still in the price. I know I keep saying this - But lumber is still WAAAAAAY above what was accepted as "normal" levels.

They couldn't be more wrong about "cooling demand". The industry is still busy - but nobody is going to buy in to a falling market unless they have to. It's the "don't try to catch a falling knife" mentality. After the Canadian holiday (today?) and the 4th holiday, most believe we'll level off as buyers will need to buy back in to the market to keep their businesses moving.

And the news media continues to conflate "futures" with "cash". They are two completely different markets.


Looks like I'll be selling another house later this year to buy more property and build.

 

TheFifthScallop

Who am I kidding? I’m a whore.
Amateur Fighter
Nov 15, 2015
5,812
7,306
.



HVAC is a good field and certainly won't go away.
This is true, HVAC is a great field to get into. If only more kids were told this. We’re experiencing a worker shortage in our industry right now, and within the next 5 years, we will be losing a lot of workers to retirement. There will be plenty of HVAC work in the future. For those who want to do it.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
48,824
60,867
Freeloading Rusty @Freeloading Rusty
Here's your futures chart back to 2000...

I remember people freaking out when it would trade above $400/m.

Breaking through $1000 was monumental, and while it's fallen off a lot recently it's still above $700/m.

Year over year it's up 60%
2 years it's up 81%

Screenshot_20210701-100955_My Stocks Portfolio.jpg
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
48,824
60,867
This is true, HVAC is a great field to get into. If only more kids were told this. We’re experiencing a worker shortage in our industry right now, and within the next 5 years, we will be losing a lot of workers to retirement. There will be plenty of HVAC work in the future. For those who want to do it.
100%
We have a huge void of young tradesmen, yet kids are still buying into the college lie.
Skipping college and learning a trade would be a very wise decision right now. By the time your friends are graduating and looking for a job to help pay down their $70k debt - you could be a business owner already making bank.
 

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,368
34,139
100%
We have a huge void of young tradesmen, yet kids are still buying into the college lie.
Skipping college and learning a trade would be a very wise decision right now. By the time your friends are graduating and looking for a job to help pay down their $70k debt - you could be a business owner already making bank.
Obviously that's the best case scenario, but I agree with you on everything else.
 

Freeloading Rusty

Here comes Rover, sniffin’ at your ass
Jan 11, 2016
26,916
26,589
100%
We have a huge void of young tradesmen, yet kids are still buying into the college lie.
Skipping college and learning a trade would be a very wise decision right now. By the time your friends are graduating and looking for a job to help pay down their $70k debt - you could be a business owner already making bank.
Trades are huge around here. Trades programs easily have a year or more wait list to start the apprenticeship/ certification process. Lots of perks/grants/bursaries being offered to trades students. Canada is pushing the shit out of trades as we have a seen a shortage coming for years.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
48,824
60,867
Trades are huge around here. Trades programs easily have a year or more wait list to start the apprenticeship/ certification process. Lots of perks/grants/bursaries being offered to trades students. Canada is pushing the shit out of trades as we have a seen a shortage coming for years.
'Merica needs to do the same.

The shortage is already here. Step 1 is to get rid of the stigma that it's a "less than" career.
 

Freeloading Rusty

Here comes Rover, sniffin’ at your ass
Jan 11, 2016
26,916
26,589
'Merica needs to do the same.

The shortage is already here. Step 1 is to get rid of the stigma that it's a "less than" career.
All my buddies in the trades are doing good. Excellent wages and more work than they can keep up with.
 
Last edited:

TheFifthScallop

Who am I kidding? I’m a whore.
Amateur Fighter
Nov 15, 2015
5,812
7,306
'Merica needs to do the same.

The shortage is already here. Step 1 is to get rid of the stigma that it's a "less than" career.
I had teachers tell me, “unless you apply yourself, you’re going to end up as a plumber.”

My reply should have been, “Good, I’ll make a lot more money than you.”
 

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,368
34,139
I had teachers tell me, “unless you apply yourself, you’re going to end up as a plumber.”

My reply should have been, “Good, I’ll make a lot more money than you.”
Those who can, do.
Those who can't, work in public education.
 
M

member 1013

Guest
It has definitely fallen off way faster than anticipated. We lost about 6 months of gains in 3 weeks in the cash market. But there's still 6 months of gains that started around April '19 that is still in the price. I know I keep saying this - But lumber is still WAAAAAAY above what was accepted as "normal" levels.

They couldn't be more wrong about "cooling demand". The industry is still busy - but nobody is going to buy in to a falling market unless they have to. It's the "don't try to catch a falling knife" mentality. After the Canadian holiday (today?) and the 4th holiday, most believe we'll level off as buyers will need to buy back in to the market to keep their businesses moving.

And the news media continues to conflate "futures" with "cash". They are two completely different markets.
July first is Canada day

it’s like Independence Day but more betterer
 
M

member 1013

Guest
I was in the trades once, and look at me now! I’m a broke ass, do nothing bitch. I’m “basic.”