General A thread to discuss and follow the incoming inflation bomb

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FINGERS

TMMAC Addict
Nov 14, 2019
16,507
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So serious question to Splinty @Splinty and Hauler @Hauler

i believe inflation is coming and coming hard. for the record I’ve thought this for 13 years though.

but if this is the real coming what is the best way to ring fence savings? Or even make on the coming crisis. There are many industries that make in a reccesion.

i have 30k spare cash. What would you do with it?

i bet 30k is a decent claret for splints but would appreciate advice
 

Rambo John J

Eats things that would make a Billy Goat Puke
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
71,541
71,465
So serious question to Splinty @Splinty and Hauler @Hauler

i believe inflation is coming and coming hard. for the record I’ve thought this for 13 years though.

but if this is the real coming what is the best way to ring fence savings? Or even make on the coming crisis. There are many industries that make in a reccesion.

i have 30k spare cash. What would you do with it?

i bet 30k is a decent claret for splints but would appreciate advice
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M

member 1013

Guest
So serious question to Splinty @Splinty and Hauler @Hauler

i believe inflation is coming and coming hard. for the record I’ve thought this for 13 years though.

but if this is the real coming what is the best way to ring fence savings? Or even make on the coming crisis. There are many industries that make in a reccesion.

i have 30k spare cash. What would you do with it?

i bet 30k is a decent claret for splints but would appreciate advice
Crypto

i just went in
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,412
57,814
So serious question to Splinty @Splinty and Hauler @Hauler

i believe inflation is coming and coming hard. for the record I’ve thought this for 13 years though.

but if this is the real coming what is the best way to ring fence savings? Or even make on the coming crisis. There are many industries that make in a reccesion.

i have 30k spare cash. What would you do with it?

i bet 30k is a decent claret for splints but would appreciate advice
Other than the usual moves...



I do like real estate. Housing market is fucking nuts thanks to skyrocketing building costs and low mortgage rates - I've been blowing that horn for about a year now.

I stopped talking about lumber prices because I felt I was boring people, but every week we set a new record for highs in both lumber and panels.

From March 2019 to March 2020, the average cost for a sheet of 7/16 4x8 osb was $8.22

Today it is $28.42

That's cost.

You'll be seeing $40 7/16 osb at Home Depot before too long.
 
Last edited:

SuperPig

Enjoy yourselves
Aug 7, 2015
30,979
51,737
So serious question to Splinty @Splinty and Hauler @Hauler

i believe inflation is coming and coming hard. for the record I’ve thought this for 13 years though.

but if this is the real coming what is the best way to ring fence savings? Or even make on the coming crisis. There are many industries that make in a reccesion.

i have 30k spare cash. What would you do with it?

i bet 30k is a decent claret for splints but would appreciate advice
You should send it to Hauler @Hauler and me to invest for you before it hits.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,095
Other than the usual moves...



I do like real estate. Housing market is fucking nuts thanks to skyrocketing building costs and low mortgage rates - I've been blowing that horn for about a year now.

I stopped talking about lumber prices because I felt I was boring people, but every week we set a new record for highs in both lumber and panels.

From March 2019 to March 2020, the average cost for a sheet of 7/16 4x8 osb was $8.22

Today it is $28.42, and the price has gone up 14 weeks in a row.
We've also exhausted supplies for new housing in many urban centers, especially popular midsize growing urban centers in the south.

This is going to crash hard since so much of it is being financed with cheap loans and people paying 20-25% over asking price in these areas.

That's a lot of negative equity to make up. People are going to be upside down on these houses for 10 years and a lot can happen in 10 years necessitating moving out of that house.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,412
57,814
We've also exhausted supplies for new housing in many urban centers, especially popular midsize growing urban centers in the south.

This is going to crash hard since so much of it is being financed with cheap loans and people paying 20-25% over asking price in these areas.

That's a lot of negative equity to make up. People are going to be upside down on these houses for 10 years and a lot can happen in 10 years necessitating moving out of that house.
I'm surprised houses are passing the appraisal portion of the buying process.

When I sold my old home back in October I received 8 offers in 1 day, and every one of them was well over asking. I honestly didn't think the bank would approve.

I got lucky as hell because I bought a rehab in February 2020, right before the craze hit. There was actually talk of Covid killing the housing market so I got my new place for a song.

Rehabbing the new house we were moving into and getting the house I lived in ready for market all at the same time wasn't fun, but it worked out.

Now my issue is the appraisal from the county. They appraised it for 48% more than what I paid for it. I'm currently protesting that. That new amount raised my property taxes considerably. I can only imagine that's happening everywhere.
 

FINGERS

TMMAC Addict
Nov 14, 2019
16,507
19,574
I went for a walk at lunchtime today. It was along the Thames and by the MI 5 building. So many luxury flats being built there. I had to take a picture of all the shiny glass. Point is all these flats are empty and I Really y don't know who is going to buy them. People. From abroad are not allowed to buy them as investments and leave them empty anymore.

I would have added the picture but I tool it as a high res and the file is too large
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,095
I'm surprised houses are passing the appraisal portion of the buying process.

They aren't. I'm talking to a lot of realtors and people are pulling cash out of other ventures to put into these houses to win the bidding wars.
Appraisal remains 10 to 25% lower than offer and people are requiring removals of appraisal contingencies to be competitive in these massive bidding wars.
Now my issue is the appraisal from the county. They appraised it for 48% more than what I paid for it. I'm currently protesting that. That new amount raised my property taxes considerably. I can only imagine that's happening everywhere
all over the country housing appraisals by governments have gone up. It's artificial. In Texas you're not allowed to change property taxes significantly without a legislative input. How do you get around that? Just change your calculation on your appraisal and multiply it times the existing tax rate lol

My house magically gained $100,000 in one year off the government appraisal. I can tell you from my area that's absolutely not accurate. Then I found out they just changed the formula at the city and county levels.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
45,412
57,814
My house magically gained $100,000 in one year off the government appraisal. I can tell you from my area that's absolutely not accurate. Then I found out they just changed the formula at the city and county levels.
I have my hearing date scheduled for the 1st week of April. It isn't something I've done before but I plan on building a robust case. I sent them an email yesterday asking if they allow PowerPoint presentations.

Lol @ a 48% gain over what 2 willing participants decided was a fair market value less than 1 year ago.

Although I feel like an NFL player who was suspended by Roger Goodell getting ready to appeal their case to...Roger Goodell.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,095
The only argument at prevention of inflation in this scenario is a theory that expanded employment will first occur and through associated economic theory inflation will be avoided until that is tapped out to max. Friction in the market place will force inflation before those markers are fulfilled imo.


Zoom in: NFIB's survey also found the number of businesses who said finding qualified labor was a challenge jumped, with 91% of those trying to hire reporting few or no “qualified” applicants for their open positions, up 5 points from January.

40% of small-business owners had job openings they couldn't fill in February — the largest share on record, dating back to 1973.
Even if you buy into full employment as the cause of inflationary pressure, that exists in regional markets long before it shows in the federal numbers.