General Corona virus updates

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Rambo John J

Rambo John J

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Jan 17, 2015
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Splinty said:
well of course you're giving me a 24-hour range. Let's talk about just back-to-back test.

Since there are false positives and false negatives that can exist.
You could have your example or vice versa.

Swapping technique by the tech could change things as well as viral shedding if you're going entire 24 hours.

I think the much larger problem is what do I do with somebody who's positive but their symptoms have improved? If I am swabbing you 3 weeks later and you have symptoms and your positive I feel like I'm learning something about the disease. This has occurred with my patients.

I then have that patient back and swapped them again a week later and they're still positive but their fever broke three days before. Are they still shedding enough to infect others? they're probably shedding enough for me to pick up on a test but I don't know when I clear them. So I sit on them for a week and then test them a week later and they're asymptomatic and they're test becomes negative.

I will tell you that in my own small experience I do see on these longer cases positive positive positive positive positive than negative. And typically you know it's going to become negative because their fever has broken and they just constitutionally feel better in general.




PCR?






Well as above it's not. Like all of clinical medicine I test is best when it just simply confirms what you already know.
After I've seen enough patients I will tell you that I can spot the symptomatic Corona viruses in the mix. They stand out for this time of the year.

But in my example above where somebody has this window where I can still find virus but I am a few days after their symptoms have abated, are they still shedding?
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good post

Lotta questions to be answered still


Yes, Kary Mullis(Scientist) would likely not approve of his test(PCR) being used in it's current application. RIP tho.
 
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ConorMcGregorsBeard said:
Are you attributing excess deaths as being covid deaths?
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I'm saying that excess deaths are primarily covid deaths and we've had pretty extensive discussions on what might be causing those excess deaths during this pandemic.

At this time I am sure that the current Corona virus death toll is at least as high as the official numbers. I suspect it's a bit higher.
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
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Splinty said:
I'm saying that excess deaths are primarily covid deaths and we've had pretty extensive discussions on what might be causing those excess deaths during this pandemic.
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Given everything that's happened as a result of the pandemic what gives you such confidence?

Splinty said:
At this time I am sure that the current Corona virus death toll is at least as high as the official numbers. I suspect it's a bit higher.
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I suspect the death toll is probably close to accurate rather than being off drastically in either direction.
 
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ConorMcGregorsBeard said:
Given everything that's happened as a result of the pandemic what gives you such confidence?
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I don't know what that means. And I will owe you an answer tonight with links. My internet is down and I'm on call today.

The short is that there are multiple studies continuing to come out that show deltas in early testing and predicting the gap of Corona virus deaths due to lack of testing. As we've done retrospective reviews with new data and as testing has enhanced and some areas those models have proven accurate. That is where we suspected that we were missing cases we are starting to see that was an accurate hypothesis.

You then apply that to areas that still aren't up to speed, plus international data showing the same, And until this point we are absolutely under counting the deaths.

I assume with everything you're referencing increased suicide or chronic disease death. Suicides are relatively easy to quantify as there or not typically huge gray areas across a population. Suicides are not up enough to explain it. See then move on to the big killers of diabetes and heart disease and CVA etc. Those all show increases during this period and is likely a combination of stress and fear of the healthcare industry in places like New York also system overrun, which I would argue with him indirect death caused by the Corona virus but I am including that.
All of the above is taken into account and you see that we still have been undercounting for months.

JAMA has had several articles on this throughout the summer if you want to go find them yourselves otherwise I can find several things later.
 
Yossarian

Yossarian

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Oct 25, 2015
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Rambo John J said:
If they had a legit test then we would consider the numbers

If your data is based upon a flawed input then how good is your data
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Yes, they were shit tests. Governor Dewine of OH testing positive, only to test negative a day later. Looks like masks work better than the tests.
 
Filthy

Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
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Yossarian said:
Yes, they were shit tests. Governor Dewine of OH testing positive, only to test negative a day later. Looks like masks work better than the tests.
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the plural of 'anecdote' is not 'fact', 'pattern', or 'trend'
 
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Yossarian said:
Yes, they were shit tests. Governor Dewine of OH testing positive, only to test negative a day later. Looks like masks work better than the tests.
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I believe that he had a rapid test that was positive and later had PCR run that was negative followed by multiple PCR tests that are negative. It was a false positive and that's a pretty normal testing strategy.

We should definitely be universal masking.
 
Filthy

Filthy

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Jun 28, 2016
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Yossarian said:
It is fact. It just can't be scientifically replicated.
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if it can't be replicated, it's not a fact.
A fact has to be proven or known to be true.
If you can't prove it, it's not a fact to anyone but you.
 
Filthy

Filthy

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ConorMcGregorsBeard said:
That explains why you can't order individual parts for them, Elon.
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a factory serviceable part is one for which the factory provides instructions on replacement and replacement parts.
The seat track is a factory serviceable part

and why does 'serviceable' look wrong...WTF is that 'e' doing in there?
 
Yossarian

Yossarian

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Oct 25, 2015
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Brian Ortega's Goon Hand said:
if it can't be replicated, it's not a fact.
A fact has to be proven or known to be true.
If you can't prove it, it's not a fact to anyone but you.
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Our governor tested positive, and then negative, it was reported and acknowledged by the governor. The fact is supported by the two conflicting test results. How is this my delusion?
 
Filthy

Filthy

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Jun 28, 2016
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ConorMcGregorsBeard said:
You don't service a seat track, you replace it. The seat is serviceable the seat track is not.
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you're making up your own definitions again. A factory serviceable part is one that can be replaced as a factory part under warranty - meaning that there's a PN and a procedure in the factory service manual

the seat track is that.
 
Filthy

Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
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Yossarian said:
Our governor tested positive, and then negative, it was reported and acknowledged by the governor. The fact is supported by the two conflicting test results. How is this my delusion?
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it's a fact that it happened.
It doesn't mean that the plural of that event is useful or relevant.
 
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