Fight Ending , Finish vs. Decision

[scm1]

I will present here my analysis of Finish vs.Decision - in the UFC and in MMA overall.
You guys are welcomed to discuss those numbers and give your expert opinion.

97% of all MMA fights end with some kind of Win.
Fights that do not end with a win are Draws and No Contest.


MMA bout can end with:
- Finish (Submission or Strikes),
- Decision (judges' decision),
- Other End (DQ or No Contest)

Following chart shows fight end percentage for All MMA fights (includes UFC and all other MMA promotions).

74% of all MMA fights end with a Finish (one fighter winning before the time expires).
24% of all fights go to a Decision.

The rest are the fights that end as DQ, No Contest or method is N/A.


When we take into consideration only UFC fights (all UFC fights since 1993), then we have a 57% / 41% split between Finish and Decision.

 

[scm1]

Following graph shows how this Finish to Decision ratio was changing historically (using 4 year periods).

Decision percentage was increasing over the years.

In the UFC, Decision percentage was increasing much faster.

 

[scm1]

In the early UFC years (1996-1999) this split was 78.4% / 21.6% .

In the last four years UFC fights almost equally end in a Finish or go to a Decision.

If we take into consideration only fights from the best fighters (fighter rating > 18, includes UFC and non-UFC fighters), and fights from just a last four years, then percentage of Decisions is 40%.

 

[TheAwkwardTitan]

The better the competition is the less likely a finish is. Makes sense.

 

[Punch]

Thanks for posting homie! I like statisics like this.

 

[scm1]

The better the competition is the less likely a finish is. Makes sense.

Exactly.
Percentage of fights that are ending with a Decision is increasing as the fighters rating increases.

Decision percentage is increasing over the years, but the fastest increase is for UFC fighters and fighters with the high rating (Rtg18 = Rating 18 or higher).

 

[scm1]

Most frequently fights finish with Strikes, Submission Holds or go into a Decision (Decision Win or Decision Draw).
Submission Holds include only finishes with submission techniques (not Submissions due to strikes).


Here is the all time (1993-2016) split between those 4 End Types:

Same graph with only UFC fights included:

There are a very few Decision Draws in the UFC.
It is interesting that only 22% of all UFC fights ended with a Submission Hold.

 

[HEATH VON DOOM]

Good shit

 

[scm1]

Thanks for posting homie! I like statisics like this.

Good shit

Thank you guys.
I will continue posting as I drill down into more details.
Let me know if you want to see anything specific or have any questions.

 

[RickStorm]

Wow!
Thanks for posting this, very interesting and detailed. Great job!
You win the internet today imo!!

 

[Wild]

Love these data threads. The steady increase in UFC decisions is crazy. I go agree that better competition = more decisions. But I also think there are a couple other factors at play. One, fighters playing it safe (point fighting) because getting a win bonus is so important. Two, there's more athletes in the UFC now. It used to be an organization full of fighters. Guys that just wanted to scrap. Now it's a lot of athletes wanting to be fighters.

 

[LawFitz]

Thx for posting this. Very interesting data.

Question - in your drill down to fights with fighters that are rated... Are both contestants rated in those scenarios or just one? If it's just one, I'd be curious to see the breakout where both are rated. I suspect we'd see even more decisions in such cases.

Bottom line, it's harder to finish fights as competition improves.

 

[La Paix]

Thank you guys.
I will continue posting as I drill down into more details.
Let me know if you want to see anything specific or have any questions.

These data threads are always a great read. Is there a way to out up some numbers for something like fighters committing fouls and getting the win? I'm curious as to how often an eye poke, crotch shot, fence grab or other plays out over the long run whether the action was stopped or not.

 

[scm1]

Thx for posting this. Very interesting data.

Question - in your drill down to fights with fighters that are rated... Are both contestants rated in those scenarios or just one? If it's just one, I'd be curious to see the breakout where both are rated. I suspect we'd see even more decisions in such cases.

Bottom line, it's harder to finish fights as competition improves.

No, It is based on the rating for the winner (or the higher rating in a case of Draw or NC).
I can do that separate analysis on both fighters when I have more time. Maybe scenarios when winner has much lower or much higher rating then loser.
And your bottom line is probably a correct assumption.

 

[scm1]

This is how historically (split into 4 year periods) percentage for main End Method Types was changing:

And same for the UFC fights:

Do you see the difference between first (All MMA) and second (just UFC) graph?
I gave you numbers and you can make your own conclusions.

 

[kneeblock]

Great work @scm1

I wonder if parity is the sole reason for the increase in decisions. I'd be interested to know if there's been an accompanying decrease in BJJ BBs competing. It's either that or the learning curve of grappling is just much less steep than other arts (which the BJJ community has long contended). Alternately, the rule changes that have promoted standups and pay bonuses that have incentivized stand & wang could mean less ground work overall. This is fascinating data to ponder.

 

[Zeph]

Great work @scm1

I wonder if parity is the sole reason for the increase in decisions. I'd be interested to know if there's been an accompanying decrease in BJJ BBs competing. It's either that or the learning curve of grappling is just much less steep than other arts (which the BJJ community has long contended). Alternately, the rule changes that have promoted standups and pay bonuses that have incentivized stand & wang could mean less ground work overall. This is fascinating data to ponder.

Defence is easier to learn in grappling than offence, while the opposite is true in striking.

 

[scm1]

I will give you now some statistic on Individual fighter level.

Finish represents one fighter winning before the fight time is expired.
Finish in the fight can be achieved by Submission or Strikes. Decision or DQ is not a finish.

Finish percentage = (number of Finishes) / (number of Wins).

Following table shows top 15 Finishers by number of fights Finished with Strikes or Submission:

Of course, fighters with a large number of fights will have more Finishes.
You even have fighters with a very low rating (Ritch, Robinson, Reed) on that list.


There are a lot of fighters that have 100% Finish rate (Finished in all fights where they won).
Following is the list of notable fighters that finished the opponent in all their wins:

 

[scm1]

To show the lists with just Top fighters, I will use Rating>=25.

Rating is a number from 1 to 35 and represents overall career for each fighter.
To achieve high rating fighter must have fights with high rated opponents.

When we take into consideration just Top fighters (Rating>=25) then we have following:

Following is the list of Top fighters with the best Finish %

Majority of fighters on the list are the heavier fighters.

Are the name on the list what you expected? Any surprise?

 

[kneeblock]

Condit is most impressive to me because of who he finished. I truly hope the history books remember what a great fighter he was. That WEC crop was so great.

 

[LawFitz]

Khalidov belongs in the UFC.

Kenny Florian finishes fights.

 

[Wild]

To show the lists with just Top fighters, I will use Rating>=25.

Rating is a number from 1 to 35 and represents overall career for each fighter.
To achieve high rating fighter must have fights with high rated opponents.

When we take into consideration just Top fighters (Rating>=25) then we have following:

Following is the list of Top fighters with the best Finish %

Majority of fighters on the list are the heavier fighters.

Are the name on the list what you expected? Any surprise?

Jeremy Horn is such a friggin legend.

 

[scm1]

On the opposite side of Finish we have the Decision as a Fight End Method.

Decision percentage = (number of Decision Wins) / (number of Wins).

Following is a list of notable fighters with the highest Decision % :

Top fighters (rating>=25) with the most Decision Fight Ends:

And same Top fighters (rating>=25) ordered by Decision %:

 

[scm1]

Fight finishing with a decision is not a bad thing. Many of them were very entertaining fights.
Some decision wins are very dominant and can mean more than any finish.

Problem with decisions is that sometime it is a very close decision and it could go either way.


Following list shows fighters with the most Split Decisions

And this is similar list with just Top fighters (rating>=25).

 

[regular john]

great stuff @scm1 out of all the interesting data you've posted this was my favorite.

one thing that now I want to know more about is the overall rating. can you tell us:

same info regarding decision and finish % among the elite of the elite (rating >30 or something like this);

who are the fighters rated 35 overall??