How All Time P4P ranking was changing historically (from 2009 to 2015)

[scm1]

@scm1 is a data ANIMAL!

Yes I do have a lot of MMA data and doing data analysis is my daily job.
Why not put together what I like (MMA) and what I do for living.
Let me know if you would like to see some specific analysis.

On the other note (comment on BirdWatcher and other that have favorite fighters) - no bias intended in this ranking.
All Time algorithm was developed based on comments from large number of people.
I simply took what people were suggesting is important and implemented that in the formulas.
We made number of changes in the last 5 years and this is now a stable algorithm.
Same algorithm is used for Female MMA and I will present that in the near future.

 

[scm1]

Here is another way of looking at the fighters careers and comparing them.
We can put the historical Current Score values for two fighters on the same graph.
Current Score (thick line) and Current Category Ranking (dashed line).

Here is side by side Fedor and Anderson :

Anderson started MMA career 3 years before Fedor. But it took him a while to get at the top of his division.


This is historical comparison for GSP and Anderson :

And this is same thing for GSP and Jon Jones:

 

[scm1]

Now that we have presented all historical changes of All Time ranking, we can start speculating what might happen in the future.
Most of the fighters that are in the top 10 All Time, are not fighting anymore.
The biggest moves in the top will probably be done by Aldo and Jones.

Jones looks like he is ready to return and he might fight Cormier in the next quarter.
If he wins that, and have one or two title defense, he might stay on the top of Current P4P for a long time.
In that case he would pass Fedor in 2007 and by the end of that year he might become the GOAT.
This is all hypothetical - he has to fight and be undefeated for another two years.

What do you think might change on the All Time ranking in the next couple of years?

 

[Zeph]

Now that we have presented all historical changes of All Time ranking, we can start speculating what might happen in the future.
Most of the fighters that are in the top 10 All Time, are not fighting anymore.
The biggest moves in the top will probably be done by Aldo and Jones.

Jones looks like he is ready to return and he might fight Cormier in the next quarter.
If he wins that, and have one or two title defense, he might stay on the top of Current P4P for a long time.
In that case he would pass Fedor in 2007 and by the end of that year he might become the GOAT.
This is all hypothetical - he has to fight and be undefeated for another two years.

What do you think might change on the All Time ranking in the next couple of years?

You're missing Mcgregor's straight vertical line.

 

[Wild]

Now that we have presented all historical changes of All Time ranking, we can start speculating what might happen in the future.
Most of the fighters that are in the top 10 All Time, are not fighting anymore.
The biggest moves in the top will probably be done by Aldo and Jones.

Jones looks like he is ready to return and he might fight Cormier in the next quarter.
If he wins that, and have one or two title defense, he might stay on the top of Current P4P for a long time.
In that case he would pass Fedor in 2007 and by the end of that year he might become the GOAT.
This is all hypothetical - he has to fight and be undefeated for another two years.

What do you think might change on the All Time ranking in the next couple of years?

This is pretty neat stuff. Gonna have to dig into this more and understand Fedor's position on this graph.

 

[scm1]

This is pretty neat stuff. Gonna have to dig into this more and understand Fedor's position on this graph.

If you are interested in data related to Fedor, here is his Historical graph:

P4P rank --> #1 = 1000 , #5 = 900 , #25 = 600 , #55 = 400
Ctg rank --> #1 = 1000 , #3 = 900 , #13 = 600 , #28 = 400
Recent Score (green) is a Score for just last 18 months.

You can create this graph for any fighter on Fighter Stats
Or if you want to compare Fedor to any other fighter, then go to Fighter Stats 2 Compare

 

[Darqnezz]

I don't think that Fedor should be ranked as high as he is. The fact is the only one in the top ten (Almost the top 20) that has Zero UFC fights is damning in my opinion. Great work on all the stats though. Keep it up.

 

[scm1]

I don't think that Fedor should be ranked as high as he is. The fact is the only one in the top ten (Almost the top 20) that has Zero UFC fights is damning in my opinion. Great work on all the stats though. Keep it up.

Thanks.

There are just 5 fighters (out of top 50) that have no fights in UFC.

Half of the fighters (25) are from USA, 11 from Brazil and 7 from Japan.

You can see a good mix of old and new fighters (check First Fight).
If Last Fight is in blue, then fighter didn't fight in a long time and is probably retired.

 

[RickStorm]

This is without a doubt, one of the most interesting threads I've ever read..... ever in the history of ever
Great job OP

Im also glad someone else figure all this out cause @I Wild Each It told me I wouldnt have to do math

 

[scm1]

You're missing Mcgregor's straight vertical line.

It is not a straight vertical line, but it is very steep 🙂

Here is how ATT score was changing for McGregor and few other with a sharp recent growth:

 

[scm1]

This is without a doubt, one of the most interesting threads I've ever read..... ever in the history of ever
Great job OP
Im also glad someone else figure all this out cause @I Wild Each It told me I wouldnt have to do math

Thanks a lot.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Right now I am doing some calculations for the future ATT predictions. That will also be interesting, but I will probably create a separate thread for that.

 

[scm1]

Is there any other question on how our All Time ranking works?

I now have executed several future scenarios and have results to present.
Should I create a new thread or continue here?