Primary sources will be The Forward Observer & World Affairs Brief, with other sources various and cited.
TAIWAN BEGINS LIVE-FIRE DRILLS AS CHINA ANNOUNCES NO SPECIFIC END DATE TO ITS CONTINUED EXERCISES: Taiwan’s military began live-fire drills with its coastal defense artillery units yesterday simulating defense against a Chinese invasion. According to Taiwanese officials, the drills were not planned as a response to Chinese military maneuvers nearby. Currently, Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels are locked in a standoff in the Taiwan Strait after several Chinese warships attempted to cross the strait’s median line into Taiwan’s territory. China’s Eastern Theater Command confirmed yesterday that its military exercises will continue and are focused on joint blockades and practicing locating and attacking targets in the waters off Taiwan. (AC: China’s Eastern Theater Command originally extended the exercises through the 15th of the month but are now declining to issue an end date. Taiwan is showing signs of concern as its foreign minister accused China of using U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit as an excuse to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan. Beijing’s decision to extend the exercises, which are effectively creating an air and sea blockade of the island, and cease coordination and communications with Washington could be an indicator of a near-term military operation against Taiwan. – M.M.)
US MOVES ONE THIRD OF B2 BOMBER FLEET TO PACIFIC: The U.S. deployed six B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to Australia. According to U.S. officials, the move is for training to increase interoperability with the Royal Australian Air Force. (AC: The deployment is likely meant as a signal that the U.S. is serious about defending its interest in the East and South China Seas. The deployment will serve as an interoperability training event that tests the suitability of the Queensland air base for B-2 operations, the U.S. logistics tail required to keep the B-2s operating from that location, and familiarizes pilots and aircrew with the operating area. While six B-2s is a significant deployment of that platform, making up about a third of the U.S. total fleet, in its non-nuclear mission profile it is only a limited-moderate strike capability. Chinese leaders will see this deployment and factor it into the equation on whether to conduct further military operations against Taiwan, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact unless Washington decides to play the nuclear card. – M.M.)
RUSSIA COMMITS NEW ARMY CORPS TO UKRAINE WAR: UK intelligence reports that Russia has committed a new major military formation to the war in Ukraine. The unit, the 3rd Army Corps, is staffed with volunteer battalions and based out of the city of Mulino, east of Moscow. The 3rd Army Corps is estimated to have around 30,000 troops. Russia has been raising battalions of volunteers across the country using nationalist recruiting propaganda and lucrative bonuses for enlistments. (AC: The formation of new major ground force units was a foreseeable reaction to a hyper lethal war that has been ongoing for almost six months. The use of lucrative cash bonuses is a standard recruiting tool across militaries from all nations and is in use today in the U.S. to entice enlistments in the U.S. military. Western hopes of a collapse of the Putin regime in Moscow as a consequence of the war in Ukraine were overblown by media and government officials. Moscow has a deep bench of military aged males and will likely have little trouble filling gaps left by casualties in its special military operation in Ukraine. The real question that remains to be answered is whether Russia can mobilize its industry to replace lost equipment, weapons, and ammunition. – M.M.)
TAIWAN BEGINS LIVE-FIRE DRILLS AS CHINA ANNOUNCES NO SPECIFIC END DATE TO ITS CONTINUED EXERCISES: Taiwan’s military began live-fire drills with its coastal defense artillery units yesterday simulating defense against a Chinese invasion. According to Taiwanese officials, the drills were not planned as a response to Chinese military maneuvers nearby. Currently, Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels are locked in a standoff in the Taiwan Strait after several Chinese warships attempted to cross the strait’s median line into Taiwan’s territory. China’s Eastern Theater Command confirmed yesterday that its military exercises will continue and are focused on joint blockades and practicing locating and attacking targets in the waters off Taiwan. (AC: China’s Eastern Theater Command originally extended the exercises through the 15th of the month but are now declining to issue an end date. Taiwan is showing signs of concern as its foreign minister accused China of using U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit as an excuse to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan. Beijing’s decision to extend the exercises, which are effectively creating an air and sea blockade of the island, and cease coordination and communications with Washington could be an indicator of a near-term military operation against Taiwan. – M.M.)
US MOVES ONE THIRD OF B2 BOMBER FLEET TO PACIFIC: The U.S. deployed six B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to Australia. According to U.S. officials, the move is for training to increase interoperability with the Royal Australian Air Force. (AC: The deployment is likely meant as a signal that the U.S. is serious about defending its interest in the East and South China Seas. The deployment will serve as an interoperability training event that tests the suitability of the Queensland air base for B-2 operations, the U.S. logistics tail required to keep the B-2s operating from that location, and familiarizes pilots and aircrew with the operating area. While six B-2s is a significant deployment of that platform, making up about a third of the U.S. total fleet, in its non-nuclear mission profile it is only a limited-moderate strike capability. Chinese leaders will see this deployment and factor it into the equation on whether to conduct further military operations against Taiwan, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact unless Washington decides to play the nuclear card. – M.M.)
RUSSIA COMMITS NEW ARMY CORPS TO UKRAINE WAR: UK intelligence reports that Russia has committed a new major military formation to the war in Ukraine. The unit, the 3rd Army Corps, is staffed with volunteer battalions and based out of the city of Mulino, east of Moscow. The 3rd Army Corps is estimated to have around 30,000 troops. Russia has been raising battalions of volunteers across the country using nationalist recruiting propaganda and lucrative bonuses for enlistments. (AC: The formation of new major ground force units was a foreseeable reaction to a hyper lethal war that has been ongoing for almost six months. The use of lucrative cash bonuses is a standard recruiting tool across militaries from all nations and is in use today in the U.S. to entice enlistments in the U.S. military. Western hopes of a collapse of the Putin regime in Moscow as a consequence of the war in Ukraine were overblown by media and government officials. Moscow has a deep bench of military aged males and will likely have little trouble filling gaps left by casualties in its special military operation in Ukraine. The real question that remains to be answered is whether Russia can mobilize its industry to replace lost equipment, weapons, and ammunition. – M.M.)
