The 2015 Kentucky Derby

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Wild

Zi Nazi
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Dec 31, 2014
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Alright horse racing fans, let's talk this years Kentucky Derby. Thunder Over Louisville kicks off this years festivities on Saturday, and then we have 2 weeks to the fastest two minutes in sports.

Anyone not familiar with Thunder Over Louisville, here's a bit of information about it:



Now in its 26th year, Thunder Over Louisville continues to deliver a pyrotechnics spectacular like no other. Created as the Opening Ceremonies of the Kentucky Derby Festival, it offers an explosive kick-off to three entire weeks of celebration in Louisville, Kentucky and Southern Indiana. With an estimated average attendance of half a million people, it has become the largest annual event in its region. The show continues to be the largest annual pyrotechnics display in North America thanks to the artistry of Zambelli Internationale and the production of Visual Presentations.

“It’s the kind of show you have to see to believe,” says Matt Gibson, Derby Festival Vice President of Events. “We have great television coverage of the event, but unless you are there in person, you can’t FEEL the fireworks pounding in your chest and the concrete vibrate underneath your feet. Thunder is the kind of show that needs to be felt and not just seen and heard.”

Staging the pyrotechnic spectacular of Thunder each year for the Derby Festival is the First Family of Fireworks. Zambelli Fireworks Internationale first became involved with Thunder Over Louisville in 1991. The annual show is larger than the opening and closing ceremonies of the Atlanta and Barcelona Olympics combined. According to the Zambellis, it is unchallenged as the largest annual pyrotechnic production in North America.

To assemble a show the size of Thunder, Zambelli Internationale utilizes eight tractor trailers filled with nearly 60 tons of fireworks shells. The physical setup includes 250 tons of launching tubes, some as high as 10 feet with a diameter of 1½ feet. Two million pounds of sand will pack the firing tubes on 1,800 feet of barges. Almost 700 miles of wire cable connecting 20 firing boards are tied to the command post for synchronization to the music. This is the largest show the Zambellis perform each year, and the Zambellis are the largest fireworks family in the world.

The magic of Thunder is in the formula of the show, says Wayne Hettinger, Show Producer and owner of Visual Presentations. “Each year, people think we make the show longer to be the largest show and that’s just not the case. The secret with Thunder has been to pack as much firepower into 28 minutes as possible and produce a series of ‘finales.'” Hettinger has it down to a science, working with the team from Zambelli to create a heart-stopping, eye-popping show.

“It all starts with the music,” continues Hettinger. “We work to lay out a soundtrack that most everyone will be able to relate to a couple of songs. This enables people to bring their own experience with these songs and project them into the show they’re watching. It’s very gratifying to see people start to move and react to their favorite cuts of the soundtrack, and it gives Zambelli the foundation on which to build the show.”

 
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Wild

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There's also a great air show prior to Thunder Over Louisville.



The U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds will be part of the April 18 Thunder Over Louisville air show, but maneuvers by the two planes slated for this year's show will be limited by Federal Aviation Administration rules.

"They still will have jets in the show, but they won't be able to do their full aerobatic show," said Aimee Boyd of the Kentucky Derby Festival.

Organizers of Thunder Over Louisville said the FAA has limited the movement of some of the largest and fastest aircraft because of the height of the new tower for the Downtown Crossing being built as part of the Ohio River Bridge Project, as well as the existing Clark Memorial and K&I railroad bridge.

Boyd said the FAA restrictions apply only to larger and faster planes that include the kinds used by the Thunderbirds and The Blue Angels, the U.S. Navy's flight demonstration squadron. The Thunderbirds, the Air Force's air demonstration squadron, last performed at Thunder in 1997.

In February, the pilots met with representatives with Kentucky Derby Festival, Thunder Over Louisville, and the Kentucky Air National Guard to coordinate the squadron's return to Louisville and talk show logistics, including bringing high-performance aircrafts and a C-17 transport aircraft back for the April show.

Boyd said the festival works with the FAA every year to obtain authorization for these planes to fly in certain areas, and it will work with the agency in future years to find ways for the planes to perform their full aerobatic show.

Thunderbirds crew members also will participate in a Civil Air Patrol class, visit local schools and appear at the Air Force recruitment booth on the South Great Lawn on April 18.

The show starts at 3 p.m. and includes military and civilian air acts. Here is a list of some of the acts in this year's show. A detailed schedule will be announced later.
 
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Wild

Zi Nazi
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Then the party goes on for 2 weeks, heading up to the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, 5/1 & The Kentucky Derby on Saturday 5/2. So let's meet this years contenders.

Rank Horse Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings Graded Stakes Earnings Breeder Trainer Owner

1 International Star 171 $940,979 $940,979 Katharine M. Voss & Robert T. Manfuso Michael J. Maker Ramsey, Kenneth L. and Sarah K.

2 Dortmund 170 $1,230,000 $1,230,000 Emilie Gerlinde Fojan Bob Baffert Kaleem Shah, Inc.

3 Carpe Diem 164 $1,470,000 $1,470,000 Coffee Pot Stable Todd A. Pletcher WinStar Farm LLC and Stonestreet Stables LLC

4 American Pharoah 160 $1,410,000 $1,410,000 Zayat Stables Bob Baffert Zayat Stables, LLC

5 Frosted 113 $766,200 $766,200 Darley Kiaran P. McLaughlin Godolphin Racing LLC

6 Mubtaahij (IRE) 100 $1,400,000 $1,250,000 Dunmore Stud Ltd Michael F. de Kock Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum

7 Materiality 100 $595,200 $595,200 John D. Gunther Todd A. Pletcher Alto Racing, LLC

8 El Kabeir 95 $710,792 $710,792 Rustlewood Farm, Inc. John P. Terranova, II Zayat Stables, LLC

9 Upstart 76 $807,680 $807,680 Mrs. Gerald A. Nielsen Richard A. Violette, Jr. Ralph M. Evans

10 Far Right 62 $585,906 $490,000 Nossab LLC & Patrick J Crowley Ron Moquett LaPenta, Robert V. and Rosenblum, Harry T.

11 Itsaknockout 60 $288,560 $288,560 Brookfield Stud Todd A. Pletcher Starlight Racing

12 Firing Line 58 $530,000 $530,000 Clearsky Farms Simon Callaghan Arnold Zetcher LLC

13 Dubai Sky 50 $371,780 $313,500 Besilu Stables, LLC William I. Mott Three Chimneys Farm and Besilu Stables

14 Danzig Moon 45 $217,500 $217,500 William D Graham Mark E. Casse John C. Oxley

15 War Story 44 $195,000 $195,000 Jack Swain III Thomas M. Amoss Dunn, Christopher T. and Loooch Racing Stables, Inc.

16 Tencendur 41 $214,500 $214,500 Philip S. Birsh George Weaver Philip S. Birsh

17 Maftool 40 $630,595 $630,595 C. Kidder & J.K. & Linda Griggs Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin Racing LLC

18 One Lucky Dane 40 $200,000 $200,000 Woodford Thoroughbreds Bob Baffert Michael Lund Petersen

19 Ami's Flatter 40 $195,200 $176,000 Tall Oaks Farm Josie Carroll Ivan Dalos

20 Stanford 40 $150,800 $150,800 WinStar Farm, LLC Todd A. Pletcher Stonestreet Stables LLC, Magnier, M., Tabor, M. and Smith, D.

21 Mr. Z 34 $625,826 $610,826 Richard D. Maynard D. Wayne Lukas Zayat Stables, LLC

22 Ocho Ocho Ocho 30 $760,250 $700,250 Siena Farms LLC James M. Cassidy DP Racing, LLC

23 Bolo 30 $214,980 $168,000 Spendthrift Farm, LLC Carla Gaines Golden Pegasus Racing, Inc.

24 Madefromlucky 30 $200,000 $200,000 RMF Thoroughbreds Todd A. Pletcher Cheyenne Stables LLC and Nichol, Mac

25 Prospect Park 30 $130,000 $130,000 Pam & Martin Wygod Clifford W. Sise, Jr. Wygod, Pam and Martin

26 Conquest Typhoon 26 $430,827 $430,827 Josham Farms Limited Mark E. Casse Conquest Stables, LLC

27 Keen Ice 22 $136,520 $136,520 Glencrest Farm Dale L. Romans Donegal Racing

28 Daredevil 20 $379,600 $379,600 Marianne I. Chase & Brandon L. Chase Todd A. Pletcher Let's Go Stable and WinStar Farm LLC

29 Divining Rod 20 $225,000 $225,000 M. Roy Jackson Arnaud Delacour Lael Stables

30 Tiz Shea D 20 $110,000 $110,000 Green Lantern Stables, LLC William I. Mott Wachtel Stable, Brous Stable LLC and Barber, Gary
 
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MMAHAWK

Real Gs come from California.America Muthafucker
Feb 5, 2015
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I have family in Kentucky and always wanted to go. Looks like a great time!
 
D

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Odds to Win 2015 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs at Bovada as of April 15:

American Pharoah 2/1
Dortmund 9/2
Carpe Diem 6/1
Materiality 9/1
Mubtaahij 9/1
Firing Line 14/1
Frosted 14/1
International Star 16/1
Upstart 16/1
El Kabeir 25/1
Itsaknockout 25/1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 25/1
One Lucky Dane 25/1
Danzig Moon 33/1
Far Right 33/1
Ocean Knight 33/1
Tencendur 33/1
Imperia 40/1
Mr Z 50/1
 

Wild

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With the 2015 Kentucky Derby prep races complete, it is time for racing fans to turn their attention to handicapping the Run for the Roses. The Derby is unique in our country, and one need not go beyond the 20 horse field, and the ten furlong distance, to know that. There is no other race that has so much information available to use, to not only pick a possible winner, but to also decide on a betting strategy. In reality you cannot make sense of all that information. To be successful betting the Derby, a handicapper must decide which factors are most important and in which bets to partake.

For me, the most important handicapping factor is that historically the best running style in the Derby is to come from behind. Since 2000, the Derby has been won by six Deep Closers, defined as having been behind by more than 10 lengths; five Stalkers, never more than four lengths behind; three Closers that trailed by 4 to 10 lengths; and one single frontrunner in War Emblem in 2002.



It is safe to say that horses on or near the lead in the first half mile of the Derby, usually end up at the back of the pack and vice versa. Orb’s victory in 2013 was a great example. The top five finishers that year were in 16th, 15th, 17th, 12th, and 18th after the first four furlongs and the early leaders ended up in the back of the pack. Last year aside from California Chrome, the next three places came from 18th, 9th, and 12thpositions. In 2012, when I’ll Have Another won, Bodemeister was the only horse in the top seven that was closer than seventh place after the first half mile. Year after year this is what happens in the Derby.

A very strong final prep race has also been an indicator of Kentucky Derby success. In nine of the past 15 years the winner on the first Saturday in May had a victory leading directly to the Derby. Four others finished second in their last prep race. Mine That Bird and Giacomo were both fourth prior to the Derby and their victories came at odds of 50.60-1 and 50.30-1 respectively. In 2012, the top three finishers I’ll Have Another, Bodemeister, and Dullahan had all won their grade one tune-ups.



With every possible horizontal and vertical bet available on Derby day, each bettor needs to figure out which type of wager fits their style and will give them the best chance of making money. In recent years the trifecta has become my wager of choice for the Derby. Since the year 2000 the favorite has only hit the board eight times and when it has happened big trifecta payouts have still happened. Last year California Chrome won the race as the 2.50-1 favorite and the $2 trifecta still paid over $3,400.



Fortunately the trifecta wager is now a 50¢ base wager, which makes it cheaper to put together the large kind of tickets that are required to hit a trifecta in the 20 horse field. Last year I was successful and had a 50¢ triple that paid just shy of $900, but it took a $90 ticket to hit it. Basically, I used four key horses including California Chrome and Danza with a lot of other horses to be able to catch the 37.80-1 second place finisher in Commanding Curve.

When putting the trifecta ticket together, I focused on my two favorite Derby angles that I discussed earlier. I used horses with the right running style, like Commanding Curve, who was a Deep Closer and came from a distant 18th place. Danza and California Chrome came from my other angle; both had shown their talent in their final prep race. Chrome had won the Santa Anita Derby and Danza took the Arkansas Derby.

Now is the time to figure out how you want to bet the Derby and how you want to select your horses. There is just too much excitement on the first Saturday in May to make those kinds of decisions. So do your homework now and formulate a wagering plan and you will be on your way to cashing some big tickets on the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
 
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Wild

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Too close to call?

Take your pick: Dortmund, American Pharoah or American Pharoah, Dortmund.

Both are beyond worthy favorites for the Kentucky Derby in less than three weeks. And who knows? By post time they could wind up as co-favorites.

For now, the here's the verdict: In a photo finish, it's big, bold, unbeaten Dortmund over his swift, smooth-striding stablemate American Pharoah.

Dortmund is No. 1 in the AP's final Run to the Roses Top 10 Derby contenders, and ends up going wire to wire in the weekly rankings. He's 6 for 6, and the fact he's battle tested bodes well for his chances in a 20-horse cavalry charge in the Derby.

Of course, since American Pharoah has won so easily — without breaking a sweat, really — there's no telling what he's capable of if seriously challenged. Then again, he could simply blow away the competition on the first Saturday in May.

Either way, Hall of Famer Bob Baffert is delighted because he trains both standout 3-year-old colts. It's a pretty strong arsenal for a guy seeking his fourth Derby win. He last won with War Emblem in 2002. He'll also send out Santa Anita Derby runner-up One Lucky Dane.

Dortmund has done everything right in winning the Robert B. Lewis, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. He arrived at Churchill Downs on Monday, and will have one timed workout before the big race.

American Pharoah, meanwhile, has excelled in his two races this year after being voted 2-year-old champion despite missing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with an injury. He won the Rebel at Oaklawn Park by 6 1/4 lengths even after stumbling at the start and losing a shoe in the slop, and was breathtaking in an eight-length romp in the Arkansas Derby over the weekend.

So impressed after the race, Baffert said this of American Pharoah: "I've had a lot of nice horses. I think he's the most exceptional 3-year-old."

We'll find out May 2.

Carpe Diem, the Blue Grass winner, slipped to No. 3 with American Pharoah's move to No. 2.

There were no other changes in the Top 10, although No. 10 Upstart missed a workout last week with a fever.

The 35-race Derby-prep season ended with the Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes. A maximum of 20 horses run in the Derby, and the field is selected from point totals earned for designated races.

Louisiana Derby winner International Star has leads the qualifying system with 171 points. Dortmund has 170, Carpe Diem 164 and American Pharoah 160. Madefromlucky, fourth in the Arkansas Derby, is 21st with 30 points. For him to get in the field, a horse ranked higher would have to drop out.

___

Here's our Top 10:

1. Dortmund (Bob Baffert, trainer; Martin Garcia, jockey): Unbeaten colt arrived at Churchill Downs on Monday, with one pre-Derby workout scheduled. ... His 6 for 6 record matches marks of Seattle Slew and Smarty Jones before their Derby wins in 1977, 2004. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs (May 2). ... Final Derby future odds (pool 4): 6-1.

2. American Pharoah (Baffert, Victor Espinoza): Breathtaking performance to win Arkansas Derby by eight lengths. ... Two overpowering wins at 3 after 2-year-old championship season followed by an injury. ... . Has won 4 in a row after finishing fifth in first career start. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 5-1.

3. Carpe Diem (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez): Blue Grass winner is Pletcher's top contender. ... Previously won Tampa Bay Derby and brings 4 for 5 mark to Derby. Only loss was runner-up finish in Breeders' Cup Juvenile ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 10-1.

4. Firing Line (Simon Callaghan, Gary Stevens): Sunland Derby winner worked 5 furlongs in 59.20 at Santa Anita on April 11. ... Two more workouts planned at Santa Anita before trip to Louisville on April 26. ... Comes in with two wins in five starts (includes two close seconds to Dortmund). ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 13-1.

5. Frosted (Kiaran McLaughlin, Joel Rosario): Wood winner back in Florida to continue training before shipping to Louisville. ... Was 0 for 3 before winning New York's major Derby prep. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 40-1.

6. Materiality (Pletcher, Velazquez): Florida Derby winner worked 4 furlongs in 48.41 at Palm Beach Downs on April 11. .... Bound for Churchill Downs on April 21. ... Comes into Derby undefeated in three races. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 12-1.

7. International Star (Mike Maker, Miguel Mena): Resume is strong: Lecomte, Risen Star, Louisiana Derby wins. ... Can he pull it off in Louisville? ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 17-1.

8. Far Right (Ron Moquett, Mike Smith): Finished strong to gain distant second in Arkansas Derby and earn needed points. ... Previously won Smarty Jones and Southwest. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 39-1.

9. Mubtaahij (Mike De Kock, Christophe Soumillon): After the results of the preps in Arkansas and California, tough to see UAE Derby winner as factor in big race. .... Nonetheless, won his prep impressively, too. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 8-1.

10. Upstart (Rick Violette, Jr., Jose Ortiz): Florida Derby runner-up after finishing first in Fountain of Youth and being DQ'd to second for questionable interference. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 18-1

Link to article: Tough to pick Kentucky Derby favorite
 

Wild

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So who am I picking, and what will my bets look like? I have no idea...yet. I've typically done a lot more research on the field by now, but life's got in the way this year, so I'm starting now. I likely won't have all of my bets finalized until the day before Derby, but I'll post them here for the hell of it. Starting bankroll will be $300.

Anyone into horse racing, or just love to throw a few bucks on the greatest horse race in the world...feel free to chime in. I could talk about The Kentucky Derby for days.
 

Priziesthorse

TMMAC Addict
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I'm an expert in horse racing. I will release my bets a few days before the derby at a forum member discounted rate of $1499.
 
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D

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And he likely won't be the last. Look for 4-5+ more to drop out, and others to fill their spots over the next 2 weeks. That's what makes betting this race so difficult, yet so much damn fun.
I can see that. But one of those horses better be called 'Texas something or another' or 'Fuck Oklahoma'
 

Wild

Zi Nazi
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At least 27 horses are considered definite or haven't been ruled out for the May 2 Kentucky Derby after more than seven months of qualifying races, the last being the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.

Obviously, some of those need help to get into the starting gate, which for the third year is based on a 35-race tiered points series.

The 27 horses have at least 10 points, though horses such as Toyota Blue Grass finisher Ocho Ocho Ocho and Santa Anita Derby third Bolo are considered questionable to run in the Derby. Likewise, no decision has been made on Arkansas Derby fourth-place finisher Madefromlucky or fifth-place Bold Conquest.

Meanwhile, a pair of 10-point horses could be Derby bound if they get in. Metaboss, sixth as the 9-5 favorite in Turfway Park's Spiral Stakes, and Spiral third-place finisher Firespike could run in the Derby if they get in or run in the Grade II American Turf on the Derby undercard.

Five takeaways after the Derby points races' conclusion:

Chalk talk: Favorites won 18 of the 35 points races, the lowest-priced horse finishing second seven times and third three times. Only twice did a 2015 Derby points race winner go off at more than 10-1: Lucky Player paying $25 to win the Iroquois back in September and Texas Red $29.80 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Neither is in the Derby picture. Indeed, the depth of this group has stayed strong even with Texas Red and prep winners Calculator and Far From Over sidelined by injuries.

Mighty millionaires: If they all stay healthy, a record five millionaires will make the Derby starting gate May 2: International Star, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, American Pharoah and Mubtaahij. The most previously was three in 2012, 2007, 2002, according to Churchill Downs' publicity chief and stat man Darren Rogers.

International invasion: The wildcard of Kentucky Derby 2015 is Mubtaahij, the eight-length winner of the UAE Derby. He's trained by one of the world's premier horsemen in Mike de Kock, who has never been worse than third in six U.S. starts.

Unlike any other Derby prospects, Mubtaahij already has run twice at 1 3/16 miles – a sixteen-mile farther than his U.S. competition – with two wins. He looks like a true dirt horse, his only unremarkable efforts being his first two starts on turf. But on dirt he's a head from being unbeaten in five starts. Still, questions remain about the quality of what he was beating in Dubai.

FFT: American Pharoah aced the Final Fractions Theory, which says look for your Derby winner among horses who finish the last eighth-mile of their final 1 1/8-mile prep in 13.0 seconds or less and the final three-eighths in 38.0 or less. American Pharoah, with jockey Victor Espinoza decidedly downshifting, went in 12.6 seconds and 37.8. Others in the race, as calculated by the Twitter feed @DerbyContenders: runner-up Far Right 12.3, 37.9; third-place Mr. Z 13.2, 39.3; Madefromlucky 12.1, 38.5 and Bold Conquest 12.2, 38.0.

Top speed figures:Mike Battaglia, Churchill Downs' oddsmaker for 40 years, says Bob Baffert will have the top two favorites though he's not sure which will be No. 1. But he's not completely sold on impressive Toyota Blue Grass winner Carpe Diem being the third choice, as many of us assumed. That's because Battaglia takes the Beyer speed figures into account, and Carpe Diem earned a 95 Beyer speed figure at Keeneland. However, the BRIS speed figures paint a more flattering picture, with Carpe Diem at 102.

Here are the top Beyers from the last round of preps: Materiality's Florida Derby (110), Upstart's Florida Derby second (108) Dortmund's Santa Anita Derby (106), American Pharoah's Arkansas Derby (105), Frosted's Wood Memorial (103).

Here are the top BRIS figs from the last round: Frosted (107), Materiality (105), Tencendur's Wood second (105), Upstart (103), Carpe Diem (102), American Pharoah (102).
 

sgotwalks

First 100
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Jan 16, 2015
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Can't believe I am going no bites on my offer.
I'm was over your offer! The only reason I clicked on this thread (being that I was just getting ready to turn the computer off for the night) is because I saw your name as the last poster. It's a no brainer man! However, once I clicked on the thread and saw how much information has been laid out there for us by IWEA, with all of the information typed out, the pretty charts, loads of videos and some stunning images, I kind of figured this guy knows his shit too!

Now I want to hear what his going rate is and how it compares to your $1400 fee. Mind you, even with all of the pretty charts and images its going to be tough to win my faith over more than someone with the name Priziesthorse! He must be having a wet dream over this thread right now..........this thread is pretty much about him.

FYI - I love this picture! My eyes are bad and this picture is definitely fucking with them.