Well guys here we are again. Another UFC event with your go to spot for breakdown and predictions here on mmacommunity.com Viperz Venom. I caught alot of scrutiny over my last breakdown because of how harsh I am on Jon Jones so to those of you who I offended I apologize. I'd like to explain that I believe passion to be emotional, my audience believes that I should pick without emotion but the problem with that is I am passionate about MMA. So in that regard I try to post all of the facts and then make my personal predictions based on my knowledge of the fighters and the evidence available to me. Sometimes I may pick with my emotions but I always make sure to let you, the readers know when I am picking that way. Now enough of me talking about me lets get to the meat and potatoes shall we?
Ulka Sasaki 18-3-2 vs Willie Gates 12-6
Sasaki is mainly a submission fighter coming off of back to back losses here. He is filling in for Patrick Holohan and is making his flyweight debut after spending time at both Batamweight and Featherweight. There are a couple of red flags here. Sasaki is making his debut in a smaller weight class on short notice, without a full camp its hard to see a way he can beat a talented mainstay in this weight class. Gates is coming off of a loss where he filled in on short notice much like Sasaki is now and even though he lost he wasn't dominated in that loss. I'm going to go with the fighter I believe to be more talented here.
Pick: Willie Gates via Unanimous Decision
Leon Edwards 10-3 vs Dominic Waters
Waters is still looking for his first victory in the octagon and on his 3rd attempt I don't see it going his way. Edwards has stated that he wants to get the knockout and I fully expect him to hand Waters his second ko loss in a row.
Pick: Leon Edwards via 1st Round KO/TKO
Kyoji Horiguchi 16-2 vs Neil Seery 16-11
This is going to be a pretty entertaining fight. Horiguchi has really only ever lost to Demitrious Johnson & one other guy by razor close decision and Seery was the guy who showed holes in Chris Beal's game. It isn't completely out of the realm of possibility than Seery wins this fight, he has the reach advantage,size advantage, and the experience edge here, not to mention the element of surprise. Horiguchi was training for a completely different fighter and even though he was training for arguably a much more talented one if he happens to be one of those fighters that has their team come up with a specific game plan he could be screwed here. With all of that being said the skill gap between these two is enormous. Horiguchi is am A class shootist, a 2nd degree black belt in karate, and trains at one of the best mma gyms in the world. Seery is a purple belt in bjj and well thats all that is listed. I don't think Seery goes away easily here and thats why I believe it will go to decision.
Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi via Unanimous Decision
Yan Cabral 12-2 vs Yeza Madadi 13-4
Interesting match up here. Madadi's won 2 of his last four by submission including a D'Arce choke victory over Michael Johnson, Cabral has all 12 of his wins by submission. Madadi looked fired up at the weigh ins and has a great top game but Cabral can literally catch you in something in mid takedown. I believe Cabral to be the smarter of the two fighters here and I expect him to walk away with one of Madadi's limbs.
Pick: Yan Cabral via 1st Round Submission
Jon Tuck 9-2 vs Josh Emmett 9-0
Tuck has been in the UFC roughly half his career making a name for himself by doing weird stuff like finishing Jake Lindsay with heel strikes to the body or losing a fight against Kevin Lee because of a one point deduction. Josh Emmett is undefeated and well rounded. Even though he hasn't fought anyone of note yet he has finished 5 of his 9 fights. Tuck has a 3 inch reach advantage and is dealing with a last minute opponent switch. Seeing the weigh ins and stuff I actually like Emmett to win this fight. I think Josh Emmett is well rounded enough that where Tuck is weak Emmett will be right there to take advantage of it.
Pick: Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision
Magnus Cedenblad 13-4 vs Garreth McLellan 13-3
Cedenblad comes into this fight with a whopping 7 inch reach advantage and has only lost once in his last 11 fights. Also, even though Cedenblad has won 10 of his last 11 fights he hasn't finished a fight by TKO since 2010 which leads me to believe he would rather pounce on a submission then hammer out a TKO. Since 2011 Cedenblad has only fought once a year with this time being two years out of the octagon. This could work in his opponents advantage but Cedenblad looked very calm and ready to go at the weigh ins. Alot of people are calling for the underdog to take this one and thats not so far out there I wouldn't agree with them I'm just not going to.
Pick: Magnus Cedenblad via 1st Round Submission
Rustam Khabilov 18-3 vs Chris Wade 11-1
What a fight thats been put together here. This fight has all the potential to be over in the opening seconds or be a complete war and win fight of the night. All I can't tell you in one way or the other its going to be fun to watch these two get into the octagon and face each other. My mind tells me than Khabilov is going to win this fight. Never bet against a master of sports in Sambo is what I tell myself. Chris Wade has the defensive wrestling to possibly stop the suplex and maybe even land a takedown of his own. Khabilov uses his Sambo to set up so many other techniques that if Wade can stifle his Sambo then he will win. I'm going to do what I said I wasn't going to do and bet against Sambo here.
Pick: Chris Wade via Unanimous Decision
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 8-0 vs Heather Jo Clark 7-4
Alot of people don't know that Clark actually owns a WMMA KO of the year award and if it wasn't for Felicia Herrig she may have won the ultimate fighter. Karolina is ranked as being one of the top 5 strawweight women in the entire world and even though there have been some serious poisonous feuds going on in her camp behind the scenes I see no effect on her whatsoever. Kowalkiewicz has walked through her competition so far and I expect this to be no different.
Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz via Unanimous Decision
Nikita Krylov 19-4 vs Francimar Barroso 18-4
Other than the 2 early losses that he's dropped the Vladimir Mishchenko, Krylov has only ever dropped fights to very talented guys in his career and is coming in on a 3 fight win streak. Barroso has put together two wins of his own one of which was against Ryan Jimmo who I believe is extremely talented.I like this fight because everytime the UFC has given Krylov a step up he's been knocked back down and this time its Barroso getting his first step up in competition. Krylov has the squeeze of a giant and I expect him to get his 3rd straight chance to use that squeeze by choking Barroso unconscious. 4 victories in a row for Krylov is a pretty impressive streak that will yet again get him atop 10 LHW next time. Lets just hope he makes the best of that chance.
Pick: Nikita Krylov via 1st Round Submission
Germaine de Randamie 5-3 vs Anna Elmose 3-0
Randamie has had a storied career in martial arts, going 37-0 in kickboxing before transitioning to MMA alot of people expected her to do very well but as most strikers find out theres more to MMA than just striking and she was submitted in the first round of her debut fight. Over the course of her career she's been able to stay above .500 only dropping 1 of her 3 bouts since debuting in the UFC and that was to the current title challenger Amanda Nunes. Elmose is a knockout artist making her debut in the UFC against the hometown girl Randamie. I see an upset brewing here. I expect the shorter less experienced woman to take this one. Call it a hunch but if you have KO power at 135 its very hard to not get hit when your as fast as these women are. Randamie hits the mat in 2.
Pick: Anna Elmose via 2nd Round KO/TKO
Albert Tumenov 17-2 vs Gunnar Nelson 14-2-1
Almost everyone I talk to is taking Nelson for this fight and I honestly can't see why. Outside of people knowing his name because of close he is with Connor McGregor, Nelson is at least on paper nearly out of this fight before it even starts. In order for Nelson to be effective he either needs to keep you at a distance or take you to the ground. Tumenov has won 13 of his last 14 and has amazing technique. Nelson has lost 2 of his last 3 fights. It's just ludicrous to pick Nelson here in my opinion. Tumenov should put him away inside of a round. But because Nelson has never been finished I'm inclined to say by decision but I honestly believe Tumenov has the power to finish Nelson.
Pick: Albert Tumenov via 1st Round KO/TKO
Antonio Silva 19-8 vs Stefan Struve 30-8
Now to amass a record like 30-8 is a great task all in its own but to do it at heavyweight on top of that proves just how talented the tower of Struve is. In their last 6 fights respectively, Silva has only 1 win and Struve though his fights are spaced out a little more because of his Heart issues has gone 3-3 over his last 6. I really wanted to pick Struve here but I just feel like Silva will touch him and when he does Struve will fall.
Pick: Antonio Silva via 1st Round KO/TKO
Alistair Overeem 40-14 vs Andrei Arlovski 25-11
A coin flip main event. Before his set back against Stipe Miocic, Arlovski had put together a 6 fight win streak which of course at heavyweight is very impressive. Overeem on the other hand is riding his current 3 fight win streak that has seem him finish Junior Dos Santos and beat up Roy Nelson pretty badly. Honestly it comes down to who I personally feel is more talented and patient fighter here.
Pick: Alistair Overeem via 2nd Round KO/TKO
Thats all for me this time folks. Please feel free to leave me any questions,comments, concerns, etc... I answer every single post and I love hearing from you guys! Until next time.
Ulka Sasaki 18-3-2 vs Willie Gates 12-6
Sasaki is mainly a submission fighter coming off of back to back losses here. He is filling in for Patrick Holohan and is making his flyweight debut after spending time at both Batamweight and Featherweight. There are a couple of red flags here. Sasaki is making his debut in a smaller weight class on short notice, without a full camp its hard to see a way he can beat a talented mainstay in this weight class. Gates is coming off of a loss where he filled in on short notice much like Sasaki is now and even though he lost he wasn't dominated in that loss. I'm going to go with the fighter I believe to be more talented here.
Pick: Willie Gates via Unanimous Decision
Leon Edwards 10-3 vs Dominic Waters
Waters is still looking for his first victory in the octagon and on his 3rd attempt I don't see it going his way. Edwards has stated that he wants to get the knockout and I fully expect him to hand Waters his second ko loss in a row.
Pick: Leon Edwards via 1st Round KO/TKO
Kyoji Horiguchi 16-2 vs Neil Seery 16-11
This is going to be a pretty entertaining fight. Horiguchi has really only ever lost to Demitrious Johnson & one other guy by razor close decision and Seery was the guy who showed holes in Chris Beal's game. It isn't completely out of the realm of possibility than Seery wins this fight, he has the reach advantage,size advantage, and the experience edge here, not to mention the element of surprise. Horiguchi was training for a completely different fighter and even though he was training for arguably a much more talented one if he happens to be one of those fighters that has their team come up with a specific game plan he could be screwed here. With all of that being said the skill gap between these two is enormous. Horiguchi is am A class shootist, a 2nd degree black belt in karate, and trains at one of the best mma gyms in the world. Seery is a purple belt in bjj and well thats all that is listed. I don't think Seery goes away easily here and thats why I believe it will go to decision.
Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi via Unanimous Decision
Yan Cabral 12-2 vs Yeza Madadi 13-4
Interesting match up here. Madadi's won 2 of his last four by submission including a D'Arce choke victory over Michael Johnson, Cabral has all 12 of his wins by submission. Madadi looked fired up at the weigh ins and has a great top game but Cabral can literally catch you in something in mid takedown. I believe Cabral to be the smarter of the two fighters here and I expect him to walk away with one of Madadi's limbs.
Pick: Yan Cabral via 1st Round Submission
Jon Tuck 9-2 vs Josh Emmett 9-0
Tuck has been in the UFC roughly half his career making a name for himself by doing weird stuff like finishing Jake Lindsay with heel strikes to the body or losing a fight against Kevin Lee because of a one point deduction. Josh Emmett is undefeated and well rounded. Even though he hasn't fought anyone of note yet he has finished 5 of his 9 fights. Tuck has a 3 inch reach advantage and is dealing with a last minute opponent switch. Seeing the weigh ins and stuff I actually like Emmett to win this fight. I think Josh Emmett is well rounded enough that where Tuck is weak Emmett will be right there to take advantage of it.
Pick: Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision
Magnus Cedenblad 13-4 vs Garreth McLellan 13-3
Cedenblad comes into this fight with a whopping 7 inch reach advantage and has only lost once in his last 11 fights. Also, even though Cedenblad has won 10 of his last 11 fights he hasn't finished a fight by TKO since 2010 which leads me to believe he would rather pounce on a submission then hammer out a TKO. Since 2011 Cedenblad has only fought once a year with this time being two years out of the octagon. This could work in his opponents advantage but Cedenblad looked very calm and ready to go at the weigh ins. Alot of people are calling for the underdog to take this one and thats not so far out there I wouldn't agree with them I'm just not going to.
Pick: Magnus Cedenblad via 1st Round Submission
Rustam Khabilov 18-3 vs Chris Wade 11-1
What a fight thats been put together here. This fight has all the potential to be over in the opening seconds or be a complete war and win fight of the night. All I can't tell you in one way or the other its going to be fun to watch these two get into the octagon and face each other. My mind tells me than Khabilov is going to win this fight. Never bet against a master of sports in Sambo is what I tell myself. Chris Wade has the defensive wrestling to possibly stop the suplex and maybe even land a takedown of his own. Khabilov uses his Sambo to set up so many other techniques that if Wade can stifle his Sambo then he will win. I'm going to do what I said I wasn't going to do and bet against Sambo here.
Pick: Chris Wade via Unanimous Decision
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 8-0 vs Heather Jo Clark 7-4
Alot of people don't know that Clark actually owns a WMMA KO of the year award and if it wasn't for Felicia Herrig she may have won the ultimate fighter. Karolina is ranked as being one of the top 5 strawweight women in the entire world and even though there have been some serious poisonous feuds going on in her camp behind the scenes I see no effect on her whatsoever. Kowalkiewicz has walked through her competition so far and I expect this to be no different.
Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz via Unanimous Decision
Nikita Krylov 19-4 vs Francimar Barroso 18-4
Other than the 2 early losses that he's dropped the Vladimir Mishchenko, Krylov has only ever dropped fights to very talented guys in his career and is coming in on a 3 fight win streak. Barroso has put together two wins of his own one of which was against Ryan Jimmo who I believe is extremely talented.I like this fight because everytime the UFC has given Krylov a step up he's been knocked back down and this time its Barroso getting his first step up in competition. Krylov has the squeeze of a giant and I expect him to get his 3rd straight chance to use that squeeze by choking Barroso unconscious. 4 victories in a row for Krylov is a pretty impressive streak that will yet again get him atop 10 LHW next time. Lets just hope he makes the best of that chance.
Pick: Nikita Krylov via 1st Round Submission
Germaine de Randamie 5-3 vs Anna Elmose 3-0
Randamie has had a storied career in martial arts, going 37-0 in kickboxing before transitioning to MMA alot of people expected her to do very well but as most strikers find out theres more to MMA than just striking and she was submitted in the first round of her debut fight. Over the course of her career she's been able to stay above .500 only dropping 1 of her 3 bouts since debuting in the UFC and that was to the current title challenger Amanda Nunes. Elmose is a knockout artist making her debut in the UFC against the hometown girl Randamie. I see an upset brewing here. I expect the shorter less experienced woman to take this one. Call it a hunch but if you have KO power at 135 its very hard to not get hit when your as fast as these women are. Randamie hits the mat in 2.
Pick: Anna Elmose via 2nd Round KO/TKO
Albert Tumenov 17-2 vs Gunnar Nelson 14-2-1
Almost everyone I talk to is taking Nelson for this fight and I honestly can't see why. Outside of people knowing his name because of close he is with Connor McGregor, Nelson is at least on paper nearly out of this fight before it even starts. In order for Nelson to be effective he either needs to keep you at a distance or take you to the ground. Tumenov has won 13 of his last 14 and has amazing technique. Nelson has lost 2 of his last 3 fights. It's just ludicrous to pick Nelson here in my opinion. Tumenov should put him away inside of a round. But because Nelson has never been finished I'm inclined to say by decision but I honestly believe Tumenov has the power to finish Nelson.
Pick: Albert Tumenov via 1st Round KO/TKO
Antonio Silva 19-8 vs Stefan Struve 30-8
Now to amass a record like 30-8 is a great task all in its own but to do it at heavyweight on top of that proves just how talented the tower of Struve is. In their last 6 fights respectively, Silva has only 1 win and Struve though his fights are spaced out a little more because of his Heart issues has gone 3-3 over his last 6. I really wanted to pick Struve here but I just feel like Silva will touch him and when he does Struve will fall.
Pick: Antonio Silva via 1st Round KO/TKO
Alistair Overeem 40-14 vs Andrei Arlovski 25-11
A coin flip main event. Before his set back against Stipe Miocic, Arlovski had put together a 6 fight win streak which of course at heavyweight is very impressive. Overeem on the other hand is riding his current 3 fight win streak that has seem him finish Junior Dos Santos and beat up Roy Nelson pretty badly. Honestly it comes down to who I personally feel is more talented and patient fighter here.
Pick: Alistair Overeem via 2nd Round KO/TKO
Thats all for me this time folks. Please feel free to leave me any questions,comments, concerns, etc... I answer every single post and I love hearing from you guys! Until next time.
