Does anyone outside the MMA bubble actually know who 'talkers' like Colby Covington are?

[Sheepdog]

Short answer = no. Long answer: Let's compare Covington to Dos Anjos:

Covington has 18 thousand twitter followers. Rafael Dos Anjos has 168 thousand. Yes, Dos Anjos has nearly 10 times as many followers. Yes, there's a lot of Brazilians in that numbers - but exactly - he is known in two markets compared to a guy nobody seems to know.

I noticed this disconnect with Demian Maia - Maia has 500k twitter followers and Wonderboy has 98k. There was never any actual evidence that Maia wasn't as big a draw as anyone else in the WW division, and in fact evidence exists suggesting the opposite, but people kept repeating that he wasn't a draw and that somehow guys like Wonderboy were regardless.

Colby Covington has only ever APPEARED on two main cards - one of which was a shitty Brazlian Fight Night card and the other a shitty Singapore fight night - he has never headlined a card, nor has he even had the top prelim spot. His fights have also been awful.

Dos Anjos is a former champion, is an exciting fighter with multiple HL reel finishes, and is a known commodity in MMA's two largest markets. He has headlined big Fox 2 times and a couple of fight nights, including a title fight leading into UFC 200, headlined a PPV that did a respectable 310k buys despite having a terrible undercard and, importantly, had a program with Conor McGregor to get his name out there. That's not to say he is some magical draw - he's not - but he's a much bigger draw than Covington going on any sensible analysis.

People seem to confuse the MMA shitrags filling up their pages with 'talkers' like Covington because they need clicks from hardcore MMA fans, with anyone actually knowing who the fuck they are. I see this a lot when people talk money fights. The only 'money' fights in or around the sport are Conor, GSP, Jon Jones, Diaz (and we haven't seen what he can draw alone) and we'll see how Cyborg draws vs Holm.

 

[Robbie Hart]

Only hardcore fans will know Coldy

 

[Sheepdog]

Covington's North American appearances have been:

First televised prelim of UFC 187 Cormier vs Rumble against Mike Pyle
2nd televised prelim of 194 Conor vs Aldo against Warrley Alves - his only ever exposure to a large audience - he loses.
Fight Pass vs Jonathan Meunier
Fight Pass vs Max Griffin
Middle Prelim of UFC on Fox Van Zant vs Waterson against Bryan Barbarena.

He's legitimately just been fighting on fight pass or early prelims of shits cards vs nobodies. The only time it's possible a substantial North American audience has seen him fight, he lost. How would anyone have any fucking idea who he is?

 

[Papi Chingon]

I pay attention to mma and had no idea who he was prior to him talking shit in brazil.

 

[NHBStriker]

Well, even without a bunch of twitter followers we're talking about him now.

I hope Dana White fires him in a fit of rage over the Star Wars spoiler, cause he was gonna take his kids out to see it or something.

 

[sparkuri]

Here ya go.

VID - Video Q&A w/ UFC Welterweight - Colby "Chaos" Covington | TMMAC - The MMA Community Forum

 

[Sheepdog]

Well, even without a bunch of twitter followers we're talking about him now.

I hope Dana White fires him in a fit of rage over the Star Wars spoiler, cause he was gonna take his kids out to see it or something.

Yes, WE are talking about him. We are people who post on an MMA forum. That's my point.

Little girls like Ariel and the other MMA click bait trash sites latch on to a controversial 'talker' because it fills up space, and saturate his exposure until his hype becomes self-perpetuating within the bubble. But people mistake that bubble hype for being a draw - which is the ability to draw in casual audiences. Some casuals will know who RDA is (not a whole lot but some) - NO casuals will know who Colby is because they have never seen him fight. Chael is the only guy to escape the MMA bubble through shit talk alone - Chael is also one of the top promo deliverers in modern history including pro wrestlers.

People act as if the history of MMA is littered with talking your way to being a star, but Chael is literally the only guy to talk his way into superstardom while simultaneously being a boring fighter and not a champ. Conor has made it through a combination of skill, exciting fights and trash talk, and Tito Ortiz + Rampage were the other guys to combine pro wrestling antics with being legit champs. The other MMA superstars - Chuck, Randy, Anderson, GSP, Brock and next tier down draws like Jon Jones, BJ Penn, Hughes, Rashad Evans (yep, look it up, he was a big PPV draw) none of them got big because of their mouth.

 

[kneeblock]

The media saturation is the thing. He makes a spectacle of himself in mediated spaces and then hopes the two step flow model does the rest. Media creates narratives that opinion leaders, e.g. forum posters, other twitter users and gamblers, can use to signal to the rest of the world that he matters enough to get bigger fights. It worked enough to get the #2 contender in Maia which rocketed him into the top 10 when he won.

Twitter followers are an imperfect metric of interest in a person. Mentions are a much better gauge of interest and likely are what the UFC uses via a sample from Twitter's firehose. Covington must be doing well enough since he's being considered to coach opposite Woodley on TUF.

 

[Yossarian]

Little girls like Ariel

 

[Rambla]

Werdum's boomerang might have more follower's then Colby?

 

[Sheepdog]

The media saturation is the thing. He makes a spectacle of himself in mediated spaces and then hopes the two step flow model does the rest. Media creates narratives that opinion leaders, e.g. forum posters, other twitter users and gamblers, can use to signal to the rest of the world that he matters enough to get bigger fights. It worked enough to get the #2 contender in Maia which rocketed him into the top 10 when he won.

Twitter followers are an imperfect metric of interest in a person. Mentions are a much better gauge of interest and likely are what the UFC uses via a sample from Twitter's firehose. Covington must be doing well enough since he's being considered to coach opposite Woodley on TUF.

Good post, sincerely. But I am talking existing facts and you are talking data that we don't have access to and also using circular reasoning.

I'm sure Colby had a spike of 'mentions' but where is the evidence that Colby can draw ratings or PPVs based on this possibly short-term spike? He's a guy that nobody has seen fight.

As for TUF: 1. Colby probably would be a better coach against Woodley ratings-wise, probably.

2. I was referring to who is the bigger draw now, not after a reality program.

3. Who the fuck watches TUF anyway?

 

[SongExotic2]

Why do you care OP?

 

[kneeblock]

Good post, sincerely. But I am talking existing facts and you are talking data that we don't have access to and also using circular reasoning.

I'm sure Colby had a spike of 'mentions' but where is the evidence that Colby can draw ratings or PPVs based on this possibly short-term spike? He's a guy that nobody has seen fight.

As for TUF: 1. Colby probably would be a better coach against Woodley ratings-wise, probably.

2. I was referring to who is the bigger draw now, not after a reality program.

3. Who the fuck watches TUF anyway?

I'm not quite sure what's circular about the reasoning. Your argument about metrics to assess star creation are flawed. I don't like it any more than you do, but media mentions (i.e. keyword searchable mentions in news articles and Twitter mentions among other things) are what companies use to identify what's trending alongside priors.

Who is the bigger draw is always speculative because a UFC card has a lot of moving parts. It's hard to isolate one variable and say X caused the spike except in outlier cases like Conor, Brock, Ronda or GSP. But the UFC has additional data on top of that in their Fightpass project. It's entirely black boxed so we don't know how often people are searching Covington or watching his fights after the smack talk to say nothing of however Fox is focus grouping potential TUF coaches.

A company like WME/IMG doesn't spend billions on a company like the UFC then use crude analytics for arbitrary decision making. TUF sucks, I agree, but it's a decently low cost commercial for fighters fans haven't shown a lot of interest in who could pay off by becoming stars based on pre-existing interest.

Like you, I wish it wasn't this way, but this is MMA today.

 

[Sheepdog]

I'm not quite sure what's circular about the reasoning. Your argument about metrics to assess star creation are flawed. I don't like it any more than you do, but media mentions (i.e. keyword searchable mentions in news articles and Twitter mentions among other things) are what companies use to identify what's trending alongside priors.

Who is the bigger draw is always speculative because a UFC card has a lot of moving parts. It's hard to isolate one variable and say X caused the spike except in outlier cases like Conor, Brock, Ronda or GSP. But the UFC has additional data on top of that in their Fightpass project. It's entirely black boxed so we don't know how often people are searching Covington or watching his fights after the smack talk to say nothing of however Fox is focus grouping potential TUF coaches.

A company like WME/IMG doesn't spend billions on a company like the UFC then use crude analytics for arbitrary decision making. TUF sucks, I agree, but it's a decently low cost commercial for fighters fans haven't shown a lot of interest in who could pay off by becoming stars based on pre-existing interest.

Like you, I wish it wasn't this way, but this is MMA today.

I think your speculation that Colby has mentions to do with the filthy animals and boomerang incidents is warranted but to extrapolate from that it equates to notoriety among casual fans is entirely a step too far.

You are correct in challenging my twitter data because it is just one metric but then you challenge it with unknown, speculative figures and then insisting that only these unknown figures matter.

I'm no social media expert but surely twitter followers are somewhat important and have some correlation with 'mentions'. You don't need to have the same amount of twitter followers to indicate twitter popularity but 10x less? How did RDA's 'mentions' spike while main eventing Big Fox or Fight Nights? I bet you they spiked more than anything Colby has done (but I don't know).

Your argument in the post I quoted was circular because it was framed as: Colby would not be considered for TUF without certain metrics and the proof that these metrics exist is that he is being considered for TUF. You could be right but you are just using speculation to justify speculation.

Him being considered for TUF does not mean he is more popular than RDA right now, they might want to use it to build him. It would make sense that they think Colby, with his antics and ability to speak English properly, would be better on TV than RDA. It doesn't refute my initial argument in any way.

 

[kneeblock]

I think your speculation that Colby has mentions to do with the filthy animals and boomerang incidents is warranted but to extrapolate from that it equates to notoriety among casual fans is entirely a step too far.

You are correct in challenging my twitter data because it is just one metric but then you challenge it with unknown, speculative figures and then insisting that only these unknown figures matter.

I'm no social media expert but surely twitter followers are somewhat important and have some correlation with 'mentions'. You don't need to have the same amount of twitter followers to indicate twitter popularity but 10x less? How did RDA's 'mentions' spike while main eventing Big Fox or Fight Nights? I bet you they spiked more than anything Colby has done (but I don't know).

Your argument in the post I quoted was circular because it was framed as: Colby would not be considered for TUF without certain metrics and the proof that these metrics exist is that he is being considered for TUF. You could be right but you are just using speculation to justify speculation.

Him being considered for TUF does not mean he is more popular than RDA right now, they might want to use it to build him. It would make sense that they think Colby, with his antics and ability to speak English properly, would be better on TV than RDA. It doesn't refute my initial argument in any way.

My mention of Colby allegedly being considered to coach TUF is buried so far in the discussion that it's hardly the point. It's an indicator of his rising status with the UFC, and isn't tied to the earlier portion on analytics which are an indicator of his interest among fans/media.

I=Interest from fan base/media
S=Status with company

Two different variables with two different indictors.

Twitter followers and mentions do connect to one another and having more always helps, but more important is who the followers are. Your points were:

A) No one outside a bubble knows who Covington is.
B) Fighter X having more followers on Twitter means they are more popular.
C) People mistake media hype for making a draw.

My reply was:

A) We can't say that because we aren't using the metrics to assess popularity the UFC likely uses.
B) No, it doesn't. While followers is one measure, the measures are more sophisticated.
C) Media hype is the only way people become a draw.

If you want to do a crude comparison between Covington and other welterweights, look at this forum. There are 280 posts with the keyword 'Covington' 295 with 'Maia' 288 with 'Woodley' 291 with 'Lawler' 293 with 'Masvidal'

Considering how long those other guys have been fighting, that's a pretty statistically insignificant difference.

Finally, there's this Google trends data on RDA which I'm showing as a photo because I can't figure out how to embed it.
Note in the first graph Covington's recent spike. They stayed relatively close prior except for a small bump RDA got around when he fought Magny. In the second graphic you see who is more discussed by region with Covington doing better in North America.

This is just crude analysis, but it at least takes us out of the speculative.

Honestly, I don't know why we're quibbling. The upshot is this:

Covington is wack.
UFC's decision making is wack.
RDA should get the next shot.

I think we can agree on those things.

 

[Wild]

Here ya go.

VID - Video Q&A w/ UFC Welterweight - Colby "Chaos" Covington | TMMAC - The MMA Community Forum

He's not really the asshole he portrays

 

[Gay For Longo]

Some hardcore wrestling fans know Colby
Isn't that gym doing some bullshit in ROH or TNA?

 

[Gay For Longo]

Here ya go.

VID - Video Q&A w/ UFC Welterweight - Colby "Chaos" Covington | TMMAC - The MMA Community Forum

I didn't know this site interviewed Indy Pro Wrestlers
@Wild when did you change things up?

 

[Gay For Longo]

A company like WME/IMG doesn't spend billions on a company like the UFC then use crude analytics for arbitrary decision making. TUF sucks, I agree, but it's a decently low cost commercial for fighters fans haven't shown a lot of interest in who could pay off by becoming stars based on pre-existing interest.

How about we don't give WME any credit towards good decision making
There has been no evidence thus far to show that they have good decision making
And one of their founders thinks it's a good decision to grab black guys cocks in front of their wives

 

[Gay For Longo]

My mention of Colby allegedly being considered to coach TUF is buried so far in the discussion that it's hardly the point. It's an indicator of his rising status with the UFC, and isn't tied to the earlier portion on analytics which are an indicator of his interest among fans/media.

I=Interest from fan base/media
S=Status with company

Two different variables with two different indictors.

Twitter followers and mentions do connect to one another and having more always helps, but more important is who the followers are. Your points were:

A) No one outside a bubble knows who Covington is.
B) Fighter X having more followers on Twitter means they are more popular.
C) People mistake media hype for making a draw.

My reply was:

A) We can't say that because we aren't using the metrics to assess popularity the UFC likely uses.
B) No, it doesn't. While followers is one measure, the measures are more sophisticated.
C) Media hype is the only way people become a draw.

If you want to do a crude comparison between Covington and other welterweights, look at this forum. There are 280 posts with the keyword 'Covington' 295 with 'Maia' 288 with 'Woodley' 291 with 'Lawler' 293 with 'Masvidal'

Considering how long those other guys have been fighting, that's a pretty statistically insignificant difference.

Finally, there's this Google trends data on RDA which I'm showing as a photo because I can't figure out how to embed it.
Note in the first graph Covington's recent spike. They stayed relatively close prior except for a small bump RDA got around when he fought Magny. In the second graphic you see who is more discussed by region with Covington doing better in North America.

This is just crude analysis, but it at least takes us out of the speculative.

Honestly, I don't know why we're quibbling. The upshot is this:

Covington is wack.
UFC's decision making is wack.
RDA should get the next shot.

I think we can agree on those things.

I think your speculation that Colby has mentions to do with the filthy animals and boomerang incidents is warranted but to extrapolate from that it equates to notoriety among casual fans is entirely a step too far.

You are correct in challenging my twitter data because it is just one metric but then you challenge it with unknown, speculative figures and then insisting that only these unknown figures matter.

I'm no social media expert but surely twitter followers are somewhat important and have some correlation with 'mentions'. You don't need to have the same amount of twitter followers to indicate twitter popularity but 10x less? How did RDA's 'mentions' spike while main eventing Big Fox or Fight Nights? I bet you they spiked more than anything Colby has done (but I don't know).

Your argument in the post I quoted was circular because it was framed as: Colby would not be considered for TUF without certain metrics and the proof that these metrics exist is that he is being considered for TUF. You could be right but you are just using speculation to justify speculation.

Him being considered for TUF does not mean he is more popular than RDA right now, they might want to use it to build him. It would make sense that they think Colby, with his antics and ability to speak English properly, would be better on TV than RDA. It doesn't refute my initial argument in any way.

The only reason Colby is being considered is because he has a big mouth
Lets not pretend it has anything to do with his current popularity
It is an attempt to build his popularity

 

[Gay For Longo]

He's not really the asshole he portrays

Possibly true But,
how are fans to know that?
Are fans to treat him like he portrays himself or how he possibly may be irl?
Has it been announced that we are officially in the pro wrestling era?

 

[Sheepdog]

My mention of Colby allegedly being considered to coach TUF is buried so far in the discussion that it's hardly the point. It's an indicator of his rising status with the UFC, and isn't tied to the earlier portion on analytics which are an indicator of his interest among fans/media.

I=Interest from fan base/media
S=Status with company

Two different variables with two different indictors.

Twitter followers and mentions do connect to one another and having more always helps, but more important is who the followers are. Your points were:

A) No one outside a bubble knows who Covington is.
B) Fighter X having more followers on Twitter means they are more popular.
C) People mistake media hype for making a draw.

My reply was:

A) We can't say that because we aren't using the metrics to assess popularity the UFC likely uses.
B) No, it doesn't. While followers is one measure, the measures are more sophisticated.
C) Media hype is the only way people become a draw.

If you want to do a crude comparison between Covington and other welterweights, look at this forum. There are 280 posts with the keyword 'Covington' 295 with 'Maia' 288 with 'Woodley' 291 with 'Lawler' 293 with 'Masvidal'

Considering how long those other guys have been fighting, that's a pretty statistically insignificant difference.

Finally, there's this Google trends data on RDA which I'm showing as a photo because I can't figure out how to embed it.
Note in the first graph Covington's recent spike. They stayed relatively close prior except for a small bump RDA got around when he fought Magny. In the second graphic you see who is more discussed by region with Covington doing better in North America.

This is just crude analysis, but it at least takes us out of the speculative.

Honestly, I don't know why we're quibbling. The upshot is this:

Covington is wack.
UFC's decision making is wack.
RDA should get the next shot.

I think we can agree on those things.

Drag the year limit on that Google thing. Colby's spikes are nowhere near as big as Dos Anjos' when he won the belt and lots of other spikes too, both internationally and in the US. People's memories go back more than a year. RDA is simply a much more well-known person at this point based on any available evidence. Colby may have more very recent hype, but there's no way of knowing how valuable it is.

But yes, I don't think overall we disagree too mu ch