General Corona virus updates

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D

Deleted member 1

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Texas has executive action by the governor now allowing alcohol delivery in Texas.
I would suffer ten Coronavirus for this.
 
M

member 3289

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I will sell this Z pack to any of the filthy Europeans on here for $500



And before you go saying I'm making a 98% profit, just relax.

Though something like this usually costs me $3-4 (insurance covers most of it), my doctor actually GAVE this to me FOR FREE a few months ago when there was a stomach bug going around.

So in reality I'll be making a 100% profit
 

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
8,912
14,224
My guess is that we're going to find out it works pretty well to decrease viral shed but maybe not to treat disease. the French study was only 25 patients. But it did have good p values meaning there was strong effect there statistically. But again they measured viral shedding. I don't know how many people in the population have G6P deficiency off the top of my head but that has to be considered if you were going to roll it out as a public health campaign. Some people can be harmed taking it.
This came out today:
An early trials this was a very hopeful antiviral
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282
But doesn't work for treatment.
Interesting.

I did actually look up one of the drugs and it specified that alcohol abuse (I can't remember the medical phrasing, but you would know) was a major risk factor. Probably rules 80% of this forum, including myself, out.
 

Atto

Chinese Virus
Feb 11, 2016
4,748
5,554
Randa Markos, John Makdessi facing COVID-19 related issues after UFC Brasilia
 
D

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One Iran is enough. These guys really are 100 years behind the rest of us.
The developing world is going to be destroyed by this. Think about Pakistan where the population is so dense and the social stuff like refusal to shut down mosque.
Then you start thinking about Bangladesh which has an insane population density.
But again, none of them really have the resources for the modern health care systems to respond.

The fix to this is kind of easy. Stay home watch Netflix figure out the social stuff which is what our government's doing right now.

but the developing world is going to respond to this terribly. And there's going to be all kinds of responses that the interventions needed are there to poison them and what not. All the same stuff you saw with Ebola where people are attacking doctors out borders for fear that they are causing disease or spying or whatever.
 

Zeph

TMMAC Addict
Jan 22, 2015
24,348
31,961
Different levels of testing in different countries will mean that we don't have an accurate amount of cases. A lot more infected than confirmed.
 
D

Deleted member 1

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Different levels of testing in different countries will mean that we don't have an accurate amount of cases. A lot more infected than confirmed.

That's true but you can do models off previous cases and known viral activity in similar situations to estimate based on testing amounts.
For instance, John's Hopkins estimates we have 20-25x over our current test. That is every positive is missing 20 to 25 others. That multiplier will go down As we wrap up testing more.
 

Zeph

TMMAC Addict
Jan 22, 2015
24,348
31,961
That's true but you can do models off previous cases and known viral activity in similar situations to estimate based on testing amounts.
For instance, John's Hopkins estimates we have 20-25x over our current test. That is every positive is missing 20 to 25 others. That multiplier will go down As we wrap up testing more.
Is that the U.S. or globally?
 
D

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So roughly 237k upper estimate for cases in the US. With another 65k ontop of that tomorrow.
Until I see some significant change in our testing, I think the multiplier is still accurate. I'm not a statistician or an epidemiologist so I haven't any ability to check their math. But they've been a leading voice on caronavirus strategy and tracking since early on so I trust them.
 

Atto

Chinese Virus
Feb 11, 2016
4,748
5,554
@Splinty
What if we just give the whole population Choloquine for 6 days?
will it have any effect even if you don't have the virus?
 
D

Deleted member 1

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@Splinty
What if we just give the whole population Choloquine for 6 days?
will it have any effect even if you don't have the virus?
Dunno.
Let's just make an assumption, and it's a huge one so it's not fact.
I don't speak French so I'm having to read translated versions of the French study. Only 25 patients but let's assume it's accurate. The treated group has 75% not shedding at 6 days. The untreated group is still shedding at 6 days.

The question then becomes how many new infections occur in the first 6 days. How fast does the viral shedding drop off? a lab study that can detect viruses is very different than amount of virus being shed that might change things clinically.


If 95% of our new infections occur in the first 6 days, then a drug that stops shedding after 6 days will not impact 95% of new infections.

This is just examples kind of using the known data to show where this might be limited and applying to a whole population or as a public health strategy.

I don't know the answers to these questions but Just trying to temper some of the excitement.

It is promising in some avenues though because similar benefits have been seen in the US and China and France. But these are all kind of small studies or just case studies of somebody publishing what they're seeing on the front lines. it's definitely worth looking into and if you're in the ICU with no harm your doc might throw a hail Mary to test it out.

But for all the reasons above this may not jump out as a total public health strategy.