With less testing Johns Hopkins estimated we had 20-25 times the tested case load.
So let's assume its...half? that right now as we increase testing. That would be 400,000 x 10 = 4 million. Even at their previous number, that's only 8 million.
@Brian Ortega's Goon Hand
Our current case fatality rate is set at 3% (12000/400,000) which is inline with other early countries that didn't have broad testing strategies. That number gets better with interventions and testing. We have early deaths catching up right now but broad testing isn't implemented. We should improve from there.
If we have ten times as many cases than we realize and are missing no deaths, our mortality rate will actually be 0.3%. That's possible but seems unlikely given our demographics, but we do have a lot of critical care access. No other country has done that number with such a strategy so it would be pretty strange for us to do it that well accidentally.
If we assume that on a good day we can match South Koreas 0.5% (making a big assumption that our population dies at the same rate and isn't dramatically older or more unhealthy...ha!) Then we would have to have have 2,400,000 cases - meaning we have 6 times as many cases as we are testing. Meaning less than 1% of the population has been infected.